Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 240913
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS
MORNING IS THE VARIABLE WINDS AREAWIDE. THE DAY WILL BEGIN WITH
INCREASING WINDS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF AND SFC LOW SWEEPING THRU OKLAHOMA. SFC WINDS FOR
THE LOWER VALLEY WILL REACH 20 TO 25MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 DURING
THE LATE MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE MAKES AN INCURSION
INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY. THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...WHILE AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AT 10
TO 15. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
THE TEMPERATURES SOAR AGAIN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN
VALLEY WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DRYLINE. TEMPS WILL REACH THE
90S...WITH AREAS AROUND FALCON LAKE APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS. TONIGHT THE DRYLINE RETREATS TO THE WEST...WITH GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING. INVERSION SETTING UP AT 1500 WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS. FOG FORMATION WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH
THE LOW INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...MAINLY FOR THE BKS/HBV
CORRIDOR. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LACK OF SWLY DRYING WINDS AND THE DRYLINE
NOT REACHING THE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...STRENGTHENING UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRACK SLOWLY INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEEP STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM SOUTH TEXAS KEEPING THE FORECAST RATHER
DRY AND HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AND STILL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TRENDING
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD.

AS THE LEAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO STRENGTHEN WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY. WINDS PEAK SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS LLJ OF 40+ KNOTS DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY AND ALLOW FOR MINIMUMS SUNDAY MORNING TO
BE RATHER WARM WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 70. DAYTIME HIGHS BEGIN
TO INCH UPWARD UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S WITH EXCELLENT DEEP MIXING
AND WARMING 850MB TEMPS. MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW AND LIMITED
ACROSS THE RGV. HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SIERRA MADRE TO ALLOW FOR LATE DAY AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OR TWO CELLS WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
TRACKING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO SEE SOME RAIN WILL BE
SATURDAY EVENING BUT CHANCES STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT
OF THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS AS DRY AIR WORKS
THROUGH THE WESTERN VALLEY AS A DRY LINE DOES ITS WEST TO EAST
DAYTIME DANCE. DEW POINTS TO PLUMMET EACH AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR. THE CENTURY MARK LOOKS VALID ALONG AND WEST OF 69C WITH LOW
TO MID 90S EAST AS 850 TEMPS APPROACH 24-26C. CONTINUED TO TREND
ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE BUT OVERALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE BECOMING SMALLER. INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
HOTTER SOLUTION.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPINS OVER THE TENN/OHIO VALLEYS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CANADA WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS
LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF INTO
THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR PRODUCING COOL NIGHT AND WARM DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SWEEPING THROUGH OKLAHOMA
WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL GRADIENT TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE NW GULF...LOOSENING UP THE GRADIENT. WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SEAS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 FEET TODAY WITH THE GUSTIER
WINDS...BUT WILL PROMPTLY RELAX TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 3 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ON SHORE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING BETTER
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE SATURDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
LOWER PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE SAME TIME. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER THEN NORMAL
HUMIDITY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE THE DAYTIME HUMIDITY TO
PLUMMET ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE LIMITING ANY HIGH THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  71  84  73 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          89  70  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            90  69  89  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              93  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  72  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  71  80  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

64...SHORT TERM
59...LONG TERM
CAMPBELL...GRAPHICS/PSU





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