Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 180802
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
302 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A Rex Block pattern continues to hold through the short term, with a
ridge across the Pacific NW and a cut-off low across the Desert SW,
maintaining an active pattern, with a couple weak shortwaves or
perturbations in the mostly southwesterly flow sliding through Deep
South Texas this afternoon and again early Tuesday. At the surface,
the front has stalled just offshore and across the border. High
pressure builds this morning, with a stronger northeasterly flow
arriving by mid morning. Expect breezy to near windy conditions
along the lower Texas coast through the afternoon, with overrunning
precip near the coast and mid to lower valley and general showers
picking up as the mid-level energy swings by into this afternoon.
Most rainfall will come by way of light drizzle, light rain, and
light showers. An isolated rumble or two of thunder is still
possible with the passing instability aloft and front meandering in
the area, but confidence is much lower and surface based instability
is very low or nonexistent.

Overall, some beneficial rainfall should hopefully find some rain
gauges into this afternoon, with temperatures generally holding
where they are now or only slightly dipping near daybreak before
returning this afternoon. Thick cloud cover keeps lows from falling
out of the mid to upper 50s tonight, and Tuesday highs nudge back
into the mid to upper 60s, also stifled by a lack of sunshine and
northerly winds slowly turning easterly.

Beach hazards return with the northeasterly push this morning into
this afternoon. A High Rip Current Risk is expected through tonight.
A High Surf Advisory is in effect mid morning into tonight, with an
accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through the same time period.
MHHW guidance shows a steady march toward 1 foot by late morning,
with high tide at 3:36 PM. This would lead to narrow beaches late
morning through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches
potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory
if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal
run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round
of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but confidence is
lower at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern is in store for the region
during the long-term forecast period with a mainly zonal (less
amplified) pattern in place. Wednesday evening into Thursday, global
forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a shortwave trough and
associated low pressure system tracking into the region. Mid-upper
energies/impulses tracking overhead could help to ignite some
showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe. For now, have 30-
40% PoPs across the area during this timeframe. Otherwise, expect
for dry and tranquil weather to prevail through the long-term period
with subsidence and a surface high in control.

Temperatures are expected to run normal to warmer than normal
through the long-term period. Highs in the 80s with pockets of 90s
return to the region later in the week and through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

LIFR conditions have settled into the BRO area and may not budge
much this morning with light rain and reduced visibility. MVFR
conditions are relatively close, and there may be periods of
improvement. MFE is currently VFR, but expected to slip to MVFR
like HRL in the next couple of hours. A stronger blast of
northerly winds arrives by mid morning and continues into this
evening as high pressure builds. Light rain and showers are
possible through the afternoon across the RGV. There is a low
confidence in thunderstorms at this time, but a couple of rumbles
are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Now through Tuesday...A frontal boundary sits just offshore along
the lower Texas coast, with high pressure expected to build by mid-
morning and a moderate to strong northeasterly flow arriving. This
will drive Small Craft Advisory conditions across all coastal waters
this morning into tonight, continuing across the Gulf through
tonight, and edging into offshore waters through Tuesday morning.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through this
afternoon.

Tuesday night through Sunday night....Favorable marine conditions
are expected to take place through Saturday with light to
moderate winds and subsiding seas. Southerly winds are expected to
increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             70  62  70  64 /  50  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               69  58  70  60 /  50  10   0   0
MCALLEN                 68  59  69  62 /  60  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         66  56  68  60 /  60  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      69  64  67  65 /  40  10   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     70  62  69  63 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday
     morning for TXZ451-454-455.

      from 10 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ150-155.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...56-Hallman


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