Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241755 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1255 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditons will prevail through much of the
period, however, with increasing moisture expected overnight
mentioned some possible MVFR low clouds could develop again
overnight. Confidence is low at the moment if any cigs will form
for a decent length of time at the moment. Winds will continue to
be gusty from the SSE today, before the gradient relaxes more on
Tuesday as high pressure sets up over the western Gulf.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Morning sounding noted 25+ knots winds from 800 feet
through 3500 feet, peaking at 32 knots. Good daytime heating will
mix some of these winds to the surface, so expect 15 to 20 knots
with gusts near 30 later this morning and all afternoon. Winds
will decrease after sunset as heating ends. The llvl jet will also
weaken as surface high pressure builds into the western Gulf.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): South Texas remains caught
between the H5 ridge dominating the Four Corners region and the
trough stretching across the western Gulf. Main forecast challenge
today is how hot will it get today. GOES-16 precipitable water
imagery shows significantly dry air across the region currently,
with values in the 1.2 to 1.3 inch range. Last night`s sounding
showed moisture was limited to under 3000 feet. This will limit
cloud cover and will negate any rain production across Deep South
Texas. Strong subsidence and dry air will help temperatures rise
quickly. Have pushed temp a couple degrees above yesterday`s highs
areawide. Moisture will begin to increase overnight as an
inverted trough draws moisture northward. Inversion rises
considerably as well, which should allow some seabreeze showers to
develop during peak heating. Overall coverage will be limited, so
have kept PoPs to around 20 percent. Higher moisture amounts and
cloud cover will hold temps down a couple degrees from today`s
readings, which is in line with model consensus.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): 500mb subtropical ridge
across the south-central and southwest United States Tuesday will
move little Wednesday. The upper level ridge across the southwest
U.S. is expected to amplify across the state Thursday into Friday
as a 500mb trough deepens across the northeast United States. Will
continue to mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the CWA Wednesday before rain chances diminish Thursday as
subsidence increases through the rest of the week. Low to mid
level moisture is expected to increase across portions of south
Texas through the weekend but will likely not see rain chances
return until Monday.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Currently at diurnal wind peak across
the Gulf, with winds right around 20 knots. Winds should decrease
within the next 2 hours, so will hold off of any advisories. Seas
continue to run 4 to 5 feet across the Gulf. Southerly winds will
again increase to near 20 knots across the Laguna madre later this
morning, but will be slightly lower than yesterday, which would
keep winds out of advisory criteria. Small Craft should exercise
caution across nearly all marine zones through the day. Winds
decrease overnight tonight and through Tuesday as the pressure
gradient relaxes when the overall surface high pressure ridge
strengthens across the western Gulf.

Tuesday night through Friday...Surface high pressure across the
northeast Gulf of Mexico will provide moderate southeast winds
across the coastal waters Tues night. The surface ridge across the
northeast Gulf of Mexico will shift westward Wednesday. The
pressure gradient will weaken slightly across the lower Texas
coast as a result. Light to moderate southeast winds should
prevail across the coastal waters Wednesday through Friday with
surface high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico.




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