Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 201724
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1224 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON SHRA IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS AND EVEN LESS CONFIDENCE ON TS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS.
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A `SHOTGUN` OF SORTS PRECIPITATION ACROSS
ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TERMINALS. THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED TEMPO OUT OF ALL TAFS
AND REPLACED WITH VCSH. BELIEVE THAT IF ANY SHRA DOES IMPACT A
TERMINAL IT WILL BE QUICK AND LIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION...SHOULD BE VFR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH PASSING STRATUS THROUGH THE AERODROMES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF KENEDY COUNTY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS BUT DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING
INTO THE AREA DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY
WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
THIS TWO FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOWS A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE BAY
WHILE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE HUGS THE COASTAL WATERS OF MX AND S TX.
AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT THE EASTERLY
FLOW TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SURGING DEEP MOISTURE INLAND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT KEEPS
INCREASING. THE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.90 INCHES WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH AS THE
WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST BUT SOME CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE RISK FOR CONVECTION
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND DAYTIME
HEATING. MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE...COMBINED
WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE LONE STAR STATE
AND PLACE THE BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND MAY NEED TO
BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS...SINCE
LIMITED CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM INCREASING INTO TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN MARINE CONDITIONS...WITH
MORE MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS...IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND THE HIGH
BECOMES MORE IN CONTROL.

COASTAL FLOODING...THE RISK FOR MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IMPACT THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 FEET) ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES. AN INCREASED HAZARD
OF DRIVING ON THE BEACH AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE LIKELY TO BE
THE TWO MAIN HAZARDS ON LAND...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IN THE SURF ZONE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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