Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 072019
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE. MODEL GUIDANCE PROGS THIS FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE ON MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND BECOMING CENTERED NEAR LAREDO. MEANWHILE...A NORTHWEST
-TO-SOUTHEAST 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE WILL BE REINFORCED
BY THE FRONT...AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MORE SEASONAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BROADENS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF AS A RESULT. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH TX THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BUT THE 12Z GFS
PROGS A STRONGER RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX THAN THE 12Z ECMWF.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
1.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 14 CST/20 UTC. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD SUCH THAT A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL CAUSE A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
THURSDAY SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
CAMERON...WILLACY...KENEDY...HIDALGO...AND BROOKS COUNTIES FROM 9
AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY ON ANTICIPATION THAT A FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR
DAWN MONDAY WILL BRING A FRESH SURGE OF DRY AIR AND BREEZY WINDS
TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 14 HOURS...AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES TOWARDS THE WEST BASED ON
THE MOST CURRENT MODEL DATA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  53  67  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          52  69  48  68 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            49  69  45  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              51  71  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      48  71  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   57  66  55  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR TXZ250-251-253>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

66/61



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.