Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 140435 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1035 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT CIRRUS CONTINUES TO FLOW OVERHEAD...WHILE IR
IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LOW CU TRYING TO MOVE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. LOW CIGS WILL BE TOUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10KTS. A MUCH BREEZIER DAY EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HI PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. LLVL JET WILL MIX DOWN
DURING THE MORNING...WITH SFC WINDS REACHING 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DAYTIME CU FIELD FINALLY BREAKING UP NOW...WITH SCT
CIRRUS OVERHEAD RACING SEWD. CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2000. MUCH WINDIER DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20KTS WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AT 30KTS DURING THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES. LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN INTERACTING WITH BROAD 1036 HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EAST. THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS OVERNIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FILTER GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH BKN TO OVC EXPECTED EARLY
IN THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG BUT WILL
NOT BE AS SPREAD AS EARLY THIS MORNING SINCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO LOW 50 ACROSS THE CWA.

INTO SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS BUT IT
WILL MAINLY CRUISE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS DEEPER MOISTURE STAYS
TOWARDS THE EAST. MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE SO LIMITED ACROSS THE
ZONES THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD STRENGTHENING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM
THE THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE MID TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE WEST AND 70S NEAR THE COAST WITH SCT CLOUD DECK.

VALENTINES NIGHT...AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG THE WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS GRADUALLY
LOWERING INTO THE NIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 TO 78 DEGREES WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER IN
THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. OCCASIONAL NORTHERN JET STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO FLOW THROUGH THE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE
AND EAST COAST TROUGH PATTERN THREATENING THE REGION WITH WEAK
COLD FRONTS MONDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, A DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR US WITH NO DEVIATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY WITH SOME PHASE/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF A SHORTWAVE
NEXT WEEKEND BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY BIG CHANGES OR ADD ANY
PRECIPIATION. THE DRIER THAN NORMAL ATMOSPHERE WITH A PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD
GUARANTEE A PERSISTENT FORECAST AND HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN TODAY
AND INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SCEC AND SCA FOR WINDS MAINLY AS SEAS REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
SEAS WILL BUILD WITH INCREASING WIND REACHING 4 TO 5 FEET.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO
INTERACT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS MAINTAIN A MORE THAN FAVORABLE WIND AND SEA REGIME THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN NEXT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH ONLY MARGINALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV


&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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