Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 302004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): Drier air continues
to filter into deep south Texas this afternoon. Surface dewpoints
range from the upper 40s across the northern ranchlands to the
upper 60s across the lower valley. Temperatures are generally in
the 80s across the area this afternoon. The lower dewpoints along
with the near to above normal temperatures are allowing for a
pleasant afternoon.

Mid level ridging overhead and surface high pressure across Texas
will generally remain in place through the period. However, both the
NAM and GFS suggest that a weak, mid-level disturbance will move
over south Texas. The main impact with this mid-level feature will
be a some mid to high level cloudiness. The NAM indicates some QPF
drifting across the southern portions of the area on Saturday. Since
the atmosphere will remain relatively dry, will lean towards the
much drier GFS/ECMWF. No rain is expected through the forecast
period. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night will be in the
60s at most locations, expect for the low 70s near the coast and
along the River.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): High pressure over the region
will keep dry weather in place for most of the week. Although return
flow off the Gulf will slowly allow moisture levels to increase
early in the period...northerly flow aloft will prevent any deep
layer moisture from taking hold. As such...have gone with a
generally dry forecast for much of the time. However...there my be
some isolated shower activity over the Gulf.

By mid to late in the upper level storm pass across the
Northern Rockies and strengthen in the Northern Plains of the
CONUS. This will cause the high pressure over Texas to shift to
the east...however a weaken and flatten out ridge will still be in
place. The 500mb storm system will drag a trailing cold front
towards the RGV sometime possible on Thursday or Friday. Being this
far out in the period...there are still many uncertainties on time
and precip. And have gone with only a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms. However...this will greatly depend on how much the
atmospheric column can moisten up ahead of the frontal boundary.

As far as temperature...the high pressure and over all dry
conditions will led to cool near normal lows and at or above
normal highs. Readings will warm a few degrees each day until the
frontal approaches.



Now through Saturday Night: Buoy 42020 reported north winds
around 8 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas of 3 feet with
a period of 6 seconds at 2 pm CDT/19 UTC. Light to moderate
northeast winds and low to moderate seas will continue along the
Lower Texas coast through Saturday night as surface high pressure
prevails across Texas.

Sunday through Wednesday:High pressure will be in place through
the period. Light northerly winds on Sunday will switch back the
south and east on Monday and Tuesday and remain largely light to
moderate. Seas will generally remain low to moderate...with 1 to 2
feet seas...occasionally up to 3 feet.




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