Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 282331
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE TAF
PERIOD IS WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN TO OUR
WEST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CLOSE BY SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ON SUNDAY WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLOUDS AOA 2000 FEET COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AOA 3000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RIDGING BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHEN TO OUR WEST AND HELP INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO
PRECLUDE ANY FOG FOR FORMING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY AS MET/MAV CONTINUE TO INDICATE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LITTLE
CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WILL
KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DAMPEN AND MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TUESDAY THEN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THEN EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE PASSING BY
TROUGH WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTH BUT CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED AS PWATS
APPROACH 1.6 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY
AS CLOUD COVER WILL BE ABUNDANT WILL REBOUND ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH INDICATE A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CURRENTLY OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND NEARSHORE WATERS. AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AS WELL. SCEC FOR LAGUNA MADRE SHOULD BE DROPPED THIS
EVENING BUT WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TO INCREASE TO SCEC
CRITERIA. SUNDAY APPEARS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MET ACROSS
THE LAGUNA MADRE AND BORDERLINE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SCEC POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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