Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 240854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday):
500mb ridge across the southeast United States will move eastward
today as the 500mb trough/low across the western U.S. makes its
way eastward towards the central United States. Isolated to
scattered convection across the northwest Gulf of Mexico this
morning will move towards the middle and lower Texas coast. Some
of these streamer showers will move across the coastal sections of
the CWA this morning and across the remainder of the CWA this
afternoon. Loss of diurnal heating tonight will allow convection
to diminish except across the coastal waters. Moisture will pool
across northwest TX tonight into Sunday along a weak cold front
draped across that part of the state. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop across portions of deep south
TX Sunday as surface low pressure develops across northeast Mexico
and the frontal boundary across northwest TX moves slowly
southward. In addition...a 500mb low will develop across northern
Mexico and lapse rates will steepen across northeast Mexico
producing showers and thunderstorms across the Mexican plateau.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday):
Models coming together on continued rainy forecast for early next
week as remnants of a front lag in the region, with minimal
steering flow to wash it out. The wind shift line edges into Deep
South Texas sometime Monday. Forward motion of the front will be
constrained to any forward motion momentum, as upper steering
winds will be slight to none during the period. The front will
grind to a halt in the region, with great instability and numerous
focusing mechanisms. Moisture profile locally shows that deep
moisture will arrive during the day Monday, with moisture reaching
the entire parcel. Thunderstorms that do develop will be
minimally capped at any layer. This should bring the best chance
for rainfall Monday Night into Tuesday, with locally heavy
rainfall a threat. Deep moisture remains in place through
Wednesday night, with reasonable September rain chances
continuing. Drier air finally starts filtering in on Thursday,
with gradually decreasing chances into next weekend.

Daytime highs will be significantly altered by expected thicker
cloud cover and rainfall in the region. Highs Tuesday might not
reach 90 degrees (Gasp!). Once the rain chances taper on Thursday,
temperatures slowly rebound into the low 90s, depending on how
much surface water remains around the region after rains this


Today through Sunday: Seas were near 3 feet with south to
southeast winds near 12 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light
to moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters
today with surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and low
pressure across northwest Texas. The pressure gradient will
increase slightly across the lower TX coast tonight. Moderate
southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico
tonight through Sunday as a result.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Winds will gradually adjust as an
early season front moves into the northwest Gulf. Southeast flow
Sunday night will shift to the northeast at 10 to 15 knots by
Monday afternoon, and will continue into midweek. Northeast flow
will kick seas up to around 4 feet, but the short fetch along
shallower waters will keep seas from increasing further.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  81  94  79 /  20  20  30  40
BROWNSVILLE          97  79  96  78 /  20  20  30  40
HARLINGEN            99  77  97  76 /  20  20  30  30
MCALLEN             101  80 100  79 /  20  10  30  30
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 100  77 /  20  10  20  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  82  88  81 /  30  30  40  40




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