Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 190046 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
746 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...DEEP SOUTH FLOW TO 10 KFT SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A NON-CAPPED SOUNDING LED TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHICH ARE PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST
ABOUT AN EQUALLY WINDY DAY ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP PWAT PROPPED UP NEAR TWO INCHES...AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY TROPICAL MARINE CONVECTION...PERHAPS COMBINING WITH
A SEA BREEZE...WILL WE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...BUT BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AROUND ALL TAF SITES. AVIATION
INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK WEATHER CONDITIONS FREQUENTLY ON TUESDAY AS
HAZARDOUS CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SCT TO BKN SKIES WILL
PREDOMINATE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CEILINGS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCTIONS IN AND NEAR CONVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE
CHARLES LA/

DISCUSSION...WAVE OF MOISTURE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT ORIGINATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. THIS
WAS A RARE EVENT THAT WAS NOT CAPTURED IN THE GFS MOS OR NAM MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. NEVERTHELESS...WE WERE NOT TOO SURPRISED SINCE
THE SATELLITE CAPTURED THE CONVECTION PLUME APPROACHING SOUTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. WE DID SEE SOME SOME VERY HIGH GUSTS
IN THE SOUTH TEXAS AND MARINE AREAS WITH A OUTFLOW OF WINDS FROM
THE CONVECTIVE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS CONTINUES OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AS OF THIS WRITING.

WILL CARRY POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS SINCE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO INITIATE SOME NEW CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY
06Z.

ON TUESDAY...EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW IT AGAIN...THE
SAME UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH UP THE MEXICO
COAST AND THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ADDED POPS FOR MORNING OFFSHORE
AND ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BETTER TO BE PESSIMISTIC IN
THESE SITUATION WHEN YOU HAVE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. DAYTIME HEATING OUGHT TO ALSO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL. BET BET FOR
RAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE INLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MEXICO COAST DISTURBANCE
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE LESS OF A WEATHER MAKER
AS THE DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE DOME TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FIXED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND ARKANSAS REGION...THE
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN EAST/SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY. WE ARE WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY
OF TWO TUTT LOWS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THAT GENERALLY WILL HELP INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SEEING AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR NOW THOUGH...JUST EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...STILL...THOSE PLANNING TO GO OUT
DOORS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME WILL SWEAT LIKE THE DICKENS AND WILL
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RE-HYDRATED WITH WATER. SEEK COOLER SHELTER
IF YOU FEEL FAINT FROM THE HEAT. NEVER CAN BE TOO CAUTIOUS UNDER
THE TEXAS SUN (FIGURATIVELY SPEAKING).

MARINE...
ONSHORE SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DURING TUESDAY`S EARLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL
REISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SOME. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEE LITTLE CHANGE DAY
TO DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 FEET DAILY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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