Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 272336 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and light easterly winds are expected overnight
into Sunday morning as a large mid to upper level low is rotating
across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. An isolated shower could
develop offshore of Padre island after midnight possible nearing
the Lower Texas Coast around dawn Sunday with one or two moving
inland Sunday afternoon. Probabilities and confidence is low if
any of these showers or thunderstorms to impact any of the 3
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Isolated seabreeze showers
again drifting inland this afternoon, aided by light sfc winds and
light shear. TUTT low remains just to the northeast, pushing deepest
moisture away from south Texas, minimizing the areal extent of the
seabreeze showers. Weak sfc gradient and the lack of deep moisture
aloft will keep shower chances low again on Sunday along the
seabreeze once it begins moving inland after noon. Deeper moisture
doesn`t start to arrive until after midnight Sunday night, when a
plume of moisture finally wraps around the northern end of the TUTT
low, sweeping into south Texas from the north. Best chances for rain
still look to remain offshore Sunday night, but some showers could
reach the coast before sunrise.

Long Term (Monday through Saturday): Keeping an eye on AL99
near the north coast of Cuba, which could end up entering the
Gulf on Sunday, when further development will be possible. For
now, H5 ridging and surface high pressure will retreat toward the
mid Atlantic States, leaving a weak mid level low over the
Northwest and West Gulf and a weak pressure gradient at the
surface. The result will be unsettled weather for the first part
of next week. The mid level low is forecast to be roughly over
the CWA or just offshore Sunday night into Monday. Rain chances
will increase to 50 or 60 percent Monday through Wednesday with
the mid level low in the area. The mid level feature will lose
definition by around mid week with local rain chances tapering
off after that. Forecast rain amounts currently range up to
around an inch for the period, though significant variation may
be possible. Any storms may not move much, resulting in heavier
accumulation. Locally heavy rainfall mention was continued in the
forecast for coastal areas during peak afternoon heating.
Partly cloudy skies will trend toward mostly cloudy late in the
weekend and early in the week, and temperatures will be closer to
normal.

MARINE:
Now through Sunday: Light sfc pressure gradient continues to
provide light onshore flow to the region. Winds across the marine
areas are peaking now, and will lower to near calm overnight. The
light sfc flow has kept swells from increasing, remaining 2 feet
or less. This trend will continue into Sunday with weak high
pressure in the region. Some shower activity is possible tonight
from swift streamer showers, but will be few and far between.
Sunday night, more moisture moves in from the northeast, along
with some added instability. This will bring much better chances
for showers and thunderstorms to all marine zones, mainly after
midnight.

Monday through Thursday...The surface pressure gradient will
remain weak across the Western Gulf in the long term, resulting
in generally light winds and low seas. An upper disturbance will
moves lowly into the area from the northeast early in the week,
and will help trigger a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A
tropical surface disturbance may move northwest through the
Florida Straits and into the Gulf on Sunday, and stronger winds
may develop around it as it moves slowly northwest. A long period
swell could then develop locally later in the week, however for
right now forecast wave heights will remain low through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  77  93  78 /  20  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          97  76  95  76 /  20  10  30  20
HARLINGEN            99  76  97  75 /  20  10  30  20
MCALLEN             101  78 102  79 /  20  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY     101  77 100  78 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  79  84  78 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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