Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 271057
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
557 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE THREE TAFS SITES. MVFR CIGS OVER MFE
AND HRL WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS DAYTIME HEATING BURNS
OFF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. A FEW TO SCT CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP
BUT NO VIS RESTRICTION EXPECTED. TONIGHT LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY OVER MFE AND HRL. MVFR CIGS DO RETURN FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...LEE
STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS S TX MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW TO SCT CU
FIELD WILL DEVELOP BY MID DAY AS A SLIGHT INC IN MOISTURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM A DISTURBANCE OVER SE GULF COAST OF FL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH RANGING FROM 1.3
TO 1.5 THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS 50
TO 60% OF MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB AND GREATER IN THE UPPER LEVELS
INDICATING MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING DAYTIME HOURS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY
SE WINDS EXPECTED ON BOTH DAYS. EXPECT 20 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. THE HEAT CONTINUES WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INLAND. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL
MAINLY BE ISOLATED. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM HIGHWAY 281 WEST TOWARDS ZAPATA.
NEAR THE COAST HIGH`S WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT KEEPING HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR BORDERLINE FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE AN HOUR OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH INTO
TUESDAY WITH SE WINDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND HOT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. HIGH`S WILL AT LEAST BE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LAST THREE DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOW`S WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S ON BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXISTS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND/OR THE IMMEDIATE THREE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE BRO CWFA FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEAR 2 INCHES WHILE AN INVERTED 500 MB
TROUGH RETROGRADES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE BROAD 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF KEEPS A
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE SE FLOW AS INCREASE IN
THE LAST FEW HOURS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SCEC CONDITIONS
OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALONG THE LAGUNA
MADRE...THE SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC LEVEL TODAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE
GULF.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST...WITH NO CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. HOWEVER...
SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON
TUESDAY DUE TO BREEZY WINDS OVER THE BAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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