Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 060549
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT LOWERING
SE WINDS TO AROUND 12 KNOTS. SHALLOW MOIST LAYER IN THE LOWER
950 MB COULD ALLOW THE FORMATION OF LOWERING MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS MONDAY THE
SE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SOME FAIR WX CU LINGERS OVER THE RGV THIS EVENING.
THESE AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.
THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY DRY SOUNDING THIS EVENING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AROUND THE 950 MB LEVEL.
THIS NARROW MOIST LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME MVFR
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
NOCTURNAL INVERSION FORMS. THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A
FAIRLY BREEZY S-SE SURFACE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT ANY LOWER
CEILINGS THAT FORM ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
TOMORROW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MOISTURE STILL DRIFTING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS NOTED BY MORNING SOUNDING PW OF 1.8
INCHES...BUT MOST MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...
REPRESENTED BY MORE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT DRIER AIR IS JUST OFFSHORE AND
WILL BE MOVING INLAND LATER THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM MOISTURE
REMAINS MUCH MORE LIMITED IN THE SHORT TERM...SO SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. SKIES WILL STILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY DURING THE DAY...WITH GULF SFC MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED NEAR
THE SFC.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A BROAD...FLAT HEIGHT
PATTERN ALOFT WILL MATCH UP WITH PERSISTENT 1015 TO 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. GENERAL TROPICAL CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
ALONG THE GULF AND MEXICAN COASTLINE AS ANTICYCLONIC SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW ASSERTS CONTROL. WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MID LEVEL TROUGH
SETS UP OVER SOUTH MEXICO ON TUESDAY BUT HEIGHT DIFFERENCES ARE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AND THE PATTERN LOOKS EXAGGERATED BECAUSE IT IS
ALREADY RATHER STATIC. THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY REFLECTION OF THE
H5 FEATURE AT H7 AND IT JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH ONGOING
TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS KEPT ESSENTIALLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR
SILENT LOW END POPS ALONG THE WAY...WHICH PRETTY MUCH OCCURRED
CONTINUOUSLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREAS. MDT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS...HIGH TEMPS TOUCHING
THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EACH AFTERNOON WILL
BE PAR FOR THE COURSE. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE SAME AREA SHOULD
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DURING THE AFTNS...AS OPPOSED TO HIGHER...
AS DEW POINTS DECREASE TO THE MID OR LOWER 60S.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...GULF WATERS STILL NOTING WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...PRODUCING SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FEET THROUGHOUT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION DURING THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS CONTINUING OUT OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF
INTERACTING WITH PERSISTENT REGIONAL LOWER PRESSURE STRETCHING
ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SOUTH TO NORTH CENTRAL
MEXICO. MARINE SHOWERS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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