Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250747
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
247 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR ceilings are forming up around the RGV as a
shallow moist layer is evident on the 00z BRO sounding below the
940 mb level. These MVFR ceilings will persist on through the
early morning hours as the nocturnal low level inversion
strengthens. The daytime heating and low level mixing after
sunrise will improve the conditions back to VFR levels during the
daylight hours. Model forecast soundings show another low level
saturated layer reforming again Wed night into early Thurs
morning. This will allow more MVFR ceilings to return once again
from around 03-12z Thurs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 722 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly mid to high clouds across the cwa with some low clouds
developing across the coastal section this evening. Ceilings were
near 1900ft at KPIL to near 4200ft at KHBV. Expect mvfr
conditions to develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as
low level moisture continues to allow low clouds to develop along
the coast and move inland.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): 500 mb ridging will
continue to be the main player in the forecast through Wednesday,
while a 500 mb trough/closed low digs across the western US and
another closed low moves across the northern plains. As the lows
translate east, leeside surface lows will be induced across the
plains. This will aide in strengthening the pressure gradient
across Deep South Texas resulting in breezy southeasterly winds.
Convection will be limited due to the ridging in place through
Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the ridge axis will have shifted
east and midlevel disturbances moving through the flow may fire up
convection over the Mexican plateau. Some of this activity may
move into the western portions of the CWA and as such have
maintained a slight chance for Wednesday night. Abundant cloud
cover today has slowed warming especially west and north, with
forecast high temperatures likely not being realized. Mostly
cloudy skies and moderate southeasterly winds tonight, will keep
overnight lows on the warm side with temperatures only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s. Although breezy south to southeasterly
winds are expected Wednesday and could help temperatures spike up
believe that the mostly cloudy skies could limit how high temps
go, so have nudged max temps down a degree or two.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
The H5 trough finally ejects eastward later in the week as the
next trough sweeps through the four corners region. This puts the
region in better dynamics Thursday into Friday, during which time
impulses will sweep around the southern end of the trough and
across Texas. Models have similar timing of these impulses, moving
across south Texas Thursday evening and Friday evening. This
should be able to tap some moisture and daytime heating
instability to spark showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
strongest activity won`t happen until the impulse is further into
Texas, but the area could see some briefly strong storms both
evenings. The trough axis passes late Friday night, with weak
ridging and drier air bringing back the capping inversion to the
region for most of the weekend. There may be enough moisture
trapped close to the sfc to spark a few diurnal seabreeze-induced
showers early next week, depending on where the capping inversion
settles.

MARINE:
Strengthening low pressure over the plains combining with high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will result in the pressure
gradient tightening across the lower Texas coastal waters.
Moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas are expected with
small craft exercise caution conditions prevailing across the Gulf
Waters through the period and the Laguna Madre Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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