Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161748
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1248 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE
TIGHTENED THE GRADIENT WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE...KICKING UP
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WINDS TO BREEZY AND GUSTY. THOSE WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LIGHT TO MDT OVERNIGHT...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN
WILL SUPPORT MVFR CEILINGS ARISING AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 9 PM AND
3 AM...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE...HOWEVER ADVERSE CEILINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN EFFECT
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO EXPECTED LOWS.

TODAY...AN INTENSIFYING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOUT HALF A DOZEN DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON TUESDAY. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADILY INCREASING MOISTER ATMOSPHERE
.HOWEVER AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO PRODUCE ANY
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
DRY WEATHER ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN TOO COOL FOR CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...SO KEPT THESE IN PLACE.

THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB TROUGH
WILL BE PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WEAK INVERTED
TROUGHINESS AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH A SERIES OF 500 MB
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND REMAIN EXTENDED OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST DURING THE PERIOD. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY WITH NO
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TO BE
NEEDED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSIST OVER THE GULF. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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