Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 191943
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW LOW ACTIVITY WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE. ALSO...THE LATEST KBRO 12Z SOUNDING AND THE TPW PERCENT
OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 83 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA AND THE GULF WATERS WHICH IS WAS LIMITING MOST OF THE CONVECTION
TODAY. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING
TONIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND IN THE MORNING HOURS. THE 1000 TO 500 MB RH VALUES
STILL SHOW UP TO 65 PERCENT OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH
WILL FAVOR FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIMIT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO STREAMER-TYPE SHOWERS
RACING NORTHWARD...SIMILAR TO RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. HAVE BACK OFF ON
CHANCE POPS FOR THE REGION...SETTLING FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCE
WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS ONLY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS ZONES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STILL SOME SHOWER CHANCES AS MAIN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES NORTH BUT NO REAL SOLID SIGNALS YET.

THURSDAYS PRIMARY IMPACT LOOKS TO BE WIND. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ON POSITION OF MAIN 500MB RIDGE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/EASTERN LOUISIANA THAT KEEPS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE GULF. WEAK LEE AND THERMAL TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL
WORK WITH THIS RIDGING TO PRODUCE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AREA
WIDE. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE 20 TO
25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN
BUT ECMWF/GFS BOTH HOLD ON TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
WESTERN GULF AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER BASICALLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
OUTFLOW/GRAVITY WAVES GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SIMILARLY TO
WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AMID
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND AROUND 105 INLAND.

STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH DOWNSLOPING MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES FURTHER DRIES THE COLUMN ON FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS LITTLE CHANGED SUGGESTING ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AMID HOT TEMPERATURES. CONVECTION IS MUCH
LESS ACTIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE HAVING PUSHED
INLAND.  KEPT THE FORECAST DRY CONSIDERING ALL THIS.

SATURDAY MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES A LITTLE WEAKER WITH 591DM 500MB
HEIGHT LINE RETREATING TO THE COASTAL BEND. 850-700MB RH VALUES
BEGIN TO INCREASE A BIT AND REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT.
GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUCH THAT IT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY...TOO
BREEZY FOR A STRONG SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SUNDAY SOUTHEASTERN US RIDGING WEAKENS FURTHER AND AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPEARS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF LAYER MOISTURE INCREASING QUITE A BIT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT. INCREASED THE AREA COVERED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COVER MOST OF THE VALLEY AND
INCREASED MOST OF CAMERON AND CENTRAL WILLACY COUNTY TO 25 TO 30 PCT
CHANCES WHICH IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

RIDGING REDEVELOPS BUT STAYS CENTERED FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH
THE GFS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH ON MONDAY. CONTINUED
THIS IDEA ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCE WILL DEFINITELY BE CONDITIONAL
WITH COVERAGE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR BUT THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH NODS TO THE IDEA OF NOT HAVING LIMITING
FACTORS QUITE AS STRONGLY INFLUENCING THE WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT AND ONLY DIP ONE OR TWO DEGREES ON DAYS THAT
SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE. /68-JGG/


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING FOR
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND MORE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS MOVING INTO CLOSER
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA WITH SCA FOR
WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE DAY AND SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY THE
AFTERNOON. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO...MODERATE SEAS ARE
FORECAST. MORE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH MODERATE SEAS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  94  82  95 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  96  80  96 /  10  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            79  97  79  99 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              80 101  80 101 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      80 101  80 102 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES
LONG TERM...GIBBS
UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ





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