Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 300856
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
356 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHERN FL
COAST ACCOMPANIED WITH AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING
THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO MIGRATE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 1.5 TO
1.8 INCHES WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. TODAY
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY RAIN TODAY.
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING A MORE LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES.
INTO FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTENT WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID LAYERS
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN. THIS
WILL ENHANCE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BY MID DAY FRIDAY INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE HOT ACROSS THE RGV THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD
COVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 105 TO 107. INTO
FRIDAY...DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS CONCENTRATED
TOWARDS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE EAST OF HIDALGO THE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MID 90S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK 500MB LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES WESTWARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FEATURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL BRING THE BRIEF RAIN CHANCES TO AN END
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 500MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. EXPECT NO SCEC OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE AND GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 3 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  78  91  77 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          95  77  93  77 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            99  75  97  76 /  10  10  20  20
MCALLEN             102  78 100  77 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  77 101  76 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   86  79  86  78 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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