000
FXUS64 KBRO 151152 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
652 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG PROVIDING IFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE THEN LIFT OF THE FOG
COMMENCES. EXPECT CIGS TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 25-35K FEET AND
PERSIST EAST OF HIGHWAY 281/69C MUCH OF THE DAY. SCT-BKN VFR IS
ANTICIPATED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH
OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT IFR STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP
AFFECTING AVIATION CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CLOSER TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE BUILDUP TOWARD THE ARRIVAL
OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY CONTINUES...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE WIND...INCLUDING THE RELATED IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO
FIRE AND MARINE INTERESTS (SEE ASSOCIATED DISCUSSIONS BELOW).

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE EARLY SHORT TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
UPWARD MOVING HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES. THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
WILL BEAR DOWN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
MAINLY DURING THE THIRD PERIOD...OR SUNDAY.

THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES...WHICH
WILL KEEP BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS GOING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MSTLY CLDY SKIES. SOUTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT CAP IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALSO CONFINE MOISTURE TO BELOW ABOUT 5 KFT. THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN ON RADAR ALONG AND EAST OF PADRE ISLAND
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS WORKING INLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. AS MENTIONED...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 80S INLAND WEST.

TONIGHT...THE SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE VANGUARD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LOCAL WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND
WEAKEN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HOWEVER DOES NOT DECREASE. THE CAP WILL
REMAIN AND FOG MAY POSE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE MARINE AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE FRONT WILL
BEAR DOWN ON THE NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE AND WILL THEN RACE TOWARD
THE COAST BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...DRYING AND CLEARING AS IT GOES.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE THE DECISION OF A WIND ADVISORY TO
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BORDERLINE RIGHT
NOW. A BRIEF LINE OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CLEARING THE REGION
WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAND AND THE GULF. EXPECTING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BUT ONGOING COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S. PRECIP SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

RIDGING REDEVELOPS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SETTING UP A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH MODERATE WINDS AND HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS SOUTHEASTERLIES INCREASE 850-900MB RH
VALUES AND THAT WILL HELP KEEP A BIT MORE OF A CAP ON TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY. ECMWF ADVERTISES A FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUT GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE FRONT WELL TO THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF JET PATTERN AND POSITION DOES NOT BEAR STRONG
RESEMBLANCE TO ANYTHING WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH A LONG
ZONAL JET MAX AT THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND PREFER THE GFS
SEEMINGLY MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION. WITH THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM AND LARGE PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. I DID INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF COASTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
NODDING TO THE HIGH 1000-750MB RH PRESENT AND THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS SPARKING UNDER A PERSISTENT 700MB TEMPERATURE INVERSION.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS DRY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
OVERTOPPED BY DRY QUASI ZONAL 500 TO 700MB FLOW FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEK AND KEPT THE SAME GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
IN PLACE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING FROM EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF...PROVIDING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT YIELDING
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETREAT TODAY WHILE PRESSURES DECREASE OVER LAND IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH BY TONIGHT
BUT WILL REMAIN MODERATE IN STRENGTH. THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS A  SECOND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD OVER THE MARINE AREAS ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE AND VEER
EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTHWEST MID SUNDAY
MORNING...AND FROM THERE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH AND SEAS WILL BUILD. GUST CALCULATIONS
SUGGEST THAT A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ADVERSE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG AND AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OR ADVISORY LEVELS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF AND DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE. SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MODERATE TO ROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBO OF STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH CURED
FUELS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FORECAST TO CRASH INTO THE 20S ROUGHLY WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281...
SUGGESTS INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER AND AN ELEVATED THREAT OF
WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PART OF WESTERN OR INLAND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV AS A RESULT.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR OTHER AREAS...OR IF THE
WATCH DOES NOT BECOME A RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ248-249-252-253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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