Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 250906
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
406 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAKENING 250MB SHEAR LINE
LIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOTED OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. CENTER OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS AS THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION AND
THE AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN OUT. SPOTTY 20 PERCENT POPS
LOOK FAIR WITH A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DISTRIBUTION ANTICIPATED.
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY STRONGER TODAY WITH A STRONGER THERMAL LOW.
WINDS PICK UP MOSTLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST AS THE SEA BREEZE COMES THROUGH A
BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY AND POSSIBLE A DEGREE WARM IF WINDS STAY UP
PASS MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE SHEAR LINE IS PRETTY MUCH LOST IN THE STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. MEAN RH LOWERS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10 PERCENT. EXPECT
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND LOWER RH. AFTERNOON BREEZES TO MAKE THE HEAT A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN
STABLE AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP A CONSISTENT TEMPERATURE REGIME. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND 100 TO 105 FOR
THE WESTERN AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110
AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER. FAR EXTENDED MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE THE RIDGE
WILL FINALLY DISPLACE SOUTHWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH MAKES AN
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD DRIVE. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MAY
DRIVE INTO TEXAS AGAIN...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND TO PROVIDE THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS INTO SATURDAY. WINDS STILL REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH WITH NO MENTION OF EXERCISE CAUTION OR ANY ADVISORIES.
STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
BECOMING EVEN MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
GULF RIDGE REMAINS FIRM AND THE HEAT LOW FLUCTUATES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CAUTION MAY BE ADVISED
FOR THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG FETCH ACROSS THE GULF
BEGINS TO BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  79  95  80 /  20   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          96  79  97  79 /  20   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            99  75 100  79 /  20   0  10  10
MCALLEN             100  78 100  79 /  20   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  78 102  78 /  20  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  81  91  81 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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