000
FXUS64 KBRO 102351 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
651 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
TODAY WAS WELL MARKED BY LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN...
BUT RAINY ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO WANE.
THROUGH THE NIGHT THE CEILINGS REMAIN VFR
EXCEPT FOR EVENING SHOWERS WEST OF MFE AND PHARR.
QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT A LOTS
WHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS FALL TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TOMORROW THE WINDS REACH 10 TO 15 AT THE TOWER
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF A BRIEF PASSING SHOWER.
CEILINGS TOMORROW STAY ABOVE 3000 FEET
EXCEPT FOR WHEN A SEABREEZE SHOWER DO YOU MEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS BRING THE
500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WITH THAT THE ABUNDANT
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH HAS PROVIDED THE BURSTS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SINCE THIS
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT. THE OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES BUT TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
BLEND OF THE RAW AND MOS CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM TO TREND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTH TEXAS. DRIER MID LAYER AIR TO REPLACE THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES TO DIMINISH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE PERIOD MOVES INTO THE LATTER HALF MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH A UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LAYER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES. A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A HOT
RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND THE STRONG COLD TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH THE MIDWEST. GFS DRIVES A RARE SUMMER COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER SOUTH OF THE TX/OK BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN LOOKS MOST
AGGRESSIVE KEEPING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY
MORNING. IT WOULD BE VERY RARE TO SEE A FRONT APPROACH DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS IN JULY BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OUTFLOW FROM THESE POTENTIAL
STORMS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO POOL IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT.

FORECAST WILL REMAIN PESSIMISTIC KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. MODEL
POP GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 15-20 PERCENT CHANCES AT THIS TIME FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE
BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE HOT WITH THE CENTURY MARK CREEPING EASTWARD EACH AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO KEEP IT VERY HOT WED AND THURSDAY
BUT WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM
STEADY STATE AS THERE WILL BE SOME LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WITH MORE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH THEN THE RIDGE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET
WITH EAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO WILL
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STEADY STATE WIND AND SEA REGIME
PERSIST WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO SWELL. WINDS
COULD WEAKEN MORE THEN PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS WITH A COLD FRONT
POSSIBLYING STALLING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST NEXT TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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