Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 282022
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
322 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN
PLACE AND THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SEE AN INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD IS
PRETTY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO BIG DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS. BOTH MODELS TREND TOWARDS DIGGING OUT A 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS ALSO
AGREE ON CUTOFF 500 MB LOW FORMING UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES WITH THIS FEATURE PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
MAJOR DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE RGV WITH THE GFS KEEPING
THE LOW CENTERED MORE NEAR THE ARKLATEX AREA THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
SO NO SURPRISE THAT THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER. HOWEVER IN LIGHT OF
THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEENT THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AM RELUCTANT TO GO
TOTALLY WITH EITHER MODEL 100%. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE
TWO MODEL SETS LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS.

WITH THE GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE REGION
EXPECT THE OVERALL TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO FOR EARLY SEPT.

IN SPITE OF THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS/POPS IS PRETTY STABLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. HOWEVER MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD IS
PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED STREAMER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MSL FIELD OVER THE LOWER TX
COASTLINE WILL REMAIN PRETTY WEEK THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERAL E-SE LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIRLY LOW SEAS
CONTINUING. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  88  77  91 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  91  76  94 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN            71  93  75  96 /   0   0  10  20
MCALLEN              73  96  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  97  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  84  80  85 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65



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