Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 040712 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
212 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...500 MB RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING ITS HOLD OVER DEEP
SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL TRIM BACK THE CONV
POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOWER TX COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE EFFECTS MAY FIRE OFF ISOLD CONV
LATER TODAY NEAR THE BRO AND HRL AIRPORTS. BUT BELIEVE THE OVERALL
CONV COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED TODAY AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO
MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH A
VICINITY COMMENT IN THE HRL AND BRO TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWEST. WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AND
OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS FRI MORNING. IN
ADDITION...THE SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRI AFTERNOON. WILL
GO WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST RANCHLANDS...FRIDAY AS THE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES AN INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
AREA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOW POPS THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL LOWER POPS SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO LESS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE VALUES ALONG WITH BETTER LIFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE GULF
WATERS...ESPECIALLY AS A 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO
THE UPPER70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61/65
LONG TERM...63

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  78  92  79 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          94  77  92  78 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            96  75  95  78 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              97  77  97  80 /  20  20  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  75  99  78 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  80  89  81 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.