Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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701
FXUS64 KBRO 230845
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
345 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Satellite and radar images
indicate some elevated convection across portions of the Rio Grande
plains early this morning. This will continue this morning before
drier air aloft moves into the CWA this afternoon as subsidence
increases with northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge builds across
the south-central United Stated today. Below normal temperatures
will prevail across the area today through tonight as drier and
slightly cooler air filters into the area this afternoon. Subsidence
will prevail across south Texas Monday even as a weak 500mb
shortwave trough moves across the Big Bend Mon afternoon.
Temperatures will return to near normal Monday as the surface ridge
across the state today moves eastward across the western Gulf of
Mexico Mon afternoon.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday):
Generally zonal flow continues into the latter half of the week as
the next large-scale trough begins to buckle to the west. The flow
will help the dryline make a push into the region each afternoon
through Friday. Areas west of the dryline will see temperatures
soar near to above 100 degrees during the peak heating hours.
Latest model runs show the best day for this push will be
WEdnesday, allowing 100 degree temps to reach near the US 281
corridor. Southeasterly flow continues for most of the area
Thursday into Friday, keeping temps down a couple degrees, but
counteracted by much more humid conditions. Longer range models
continue to show a cold front seeping through sometime during the
weekend. Timing is still an issue, and this has bearing on precip
chances, so have indicated a small chance for showers Saturday and
Sunday until timing becomes better defined.

&&

.MARINE:
Today through Monday: Seas were near 6 feet with north winds near
25 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Moderate to strong north
winds will prevail across the coastal waters today as surface high
pressure builds into deep south Texas in the wake of the cold
front that moved through the lower TX coast early this morning.
Will extend SCA for the Laguna Madre through noon and for the
offshore waters through the afternoon. Winds and seas will
diminish late this afternoon into this evening as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the lower TX coast tonight. Light to
moderate northeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of
Mexico tonight and continue to diminish tonight into Monday. Winds
will veer to the southeast Monday as the surface ridge across the
western Gulf moves eastward.

Tuesday through Thursday: Increasing gradient across the
northwest Gulf due to low pressure building across Oklahoma.
Winds will increase to near 20 knots Tuesday, and will continue
into the morning hours Wednesday. This will increase seas to near
6 feet offshore, with choppy waters on the Laguna. Conditions
improve later Wednesday as a dryline moves close to the coast,
relaxing the gradient. Southeast flow continues Thursday, only
reaching 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  59  83  70 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  58  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  57  87  67 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN              80  57  88  69 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      81  59  90  66 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  62  78  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon CDT today for GMZ130-
     132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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