Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 192340 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS BOTTOMED OUT
AROUND 500 FEET EARLIER...BUT HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 1000 CURRENTLY.
CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE OVERNIGHT...MAYBE RISING TO 2000 LATE
TONIGHT. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOTED THAT CLEARING SKIES
WERE ALREADY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD KMFE...AND MAY BRING SOME
CONSIDERABLE BREAKS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO SCT GROUP FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED AT AREA LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH GRADUALLY RISING CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CURRENTLY THE SATELLITE
AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALREADY A NORTHERLY WIND OVER THE RANCHLANDS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THE NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH AND LOWER CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. AS DRY AIR KEEPS
FILTERING INTO THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES MORE CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S CLOSE TO THE COAST AND
MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS VERY LOW AS
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY
REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
ENHANCE OVER THE GULF WATERS BUT BY THIS EVENING NO ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE TROUGH WILL BUILD MAINTAINING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A BIT COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA. THE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO LOW 50S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHILE TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS COULD SEE MID TO UPPER
40S. DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE AIR...LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY. INTO SATURDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO HELPING
SHIFT EAST THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
NE BY MID MORNING AND RETURN TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA BUT MAINLY KEEPING A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP NO MORE
THAN MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ONSHORE FLOW SURGING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN SHOWERS TO RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. LEFT INHERITED 30 PERCENT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH THICKNESS VALUES REMAINING
ALMOST STEADY OVER THE CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...COASTAL LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY BEFORE THE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MONDAY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD THURSDAY TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THIS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH LOWERING SEAS AND WINDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO EAST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUES AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TUES MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
A RESULT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

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