Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261818 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
118 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest /18Z/ aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Leftover convection earlier today from the heavy
rain/minor flood producing storms in Zapata/Starr/Jim Hogg County
faded out this morning mainly south of the Rio Grande Valley, and
abundant mid and high clouds in "worked over" atmosphere have kept
conditions copacetic for most of the morning. The biggest
question remains in the near term. True "front" remains northwest
of the Valley terminals with bridging east/northeast winds ahead
of it. Despite the clouds, temperatures are approaching convective
trigger levels and a few burst of heavier rainfall are beginning
to pop up as I write.

For this reason, elected to maintain a TEMPO group for most of the
afternoon for MVFR visibility but still VFR ceilings in TSRA, even
though confidence in the potential for thunder is low to medium at
this point. Better safe than sorry, for reasons metnioned above.

Beyond the afternoon, the atmosphere remains moist but the forcing
disappears under still remnant 500 mb ridge. northerly flow
arrives at the might call it the true "front" and
northeasterly flow deepens through 700 mb before turning northerly
once again aloft. All layers go mainly northerly after daybreak
Tuesday. So, while plenty of mid level clouds remain overnight,
see nothing more than a non-visibility mention of -SHRA to cover
any sprinkles or very light rains that come from them. Behind the
northerly wind push around or just after daybreak may come a
pocket of low clouds, similar to what appeared across the
ranchlands this morning. Model guidance hints at this and such is
often the case with these types of weak fronts during the morning
in early to mid autumn, so added a TEMPO group for low MVFR
ceilings into mid morning Tuesday.




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