Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 171722
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THE PRIMARY
OPERATIONAL IMPACT TODAY WITH GUSTS 27 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND 24 TO 28 KNOTS INLAND EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STAY PERSISTENT AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. WITH DRIER AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...THE HIGH CIRRUS INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS HAS
CLEARED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 1500 FEET
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING.
VFR/MVFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG...NOT THAT ANY WAS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST OR ANTICIPATED ANYWAY.

TODAY...500 MB TROUGHINESS WILL EXIST OVER MOST OF THE LONE STAR
STATE...IN BETWEEN 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BOTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND BAHAMAS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.6 INCHES...
AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THUS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO
RULE WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. ADJUSTED INHERITED HIGH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE APPEARED-TOO-COOL EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO
CWFA...AND WITH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN MFE OF 104 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO COOL BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS...SOMETHING FOR THE INCOMING SHIFT
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN 500 MB HIGH NOSES EVER SO SLIGHTLY
WEST...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES DUE TO A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING
UP FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. INCREASED INHERITED LOW TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE BASED ON
TRENDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WANE A BIT OFFSHORE...BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INLAND...LEADING TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED SUNDAY HIGHS...AND MAY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP DEPENDING ON WHAT IS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WESTERN RIDGE WILL BE
TRANSITING EAST...MERGING WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE TO NO
AGITATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE RACING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUESDAY. THE
WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE VALLEY. WITH THE
ONLY FOCUSING MECHANISM BEING THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE...WILL KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF A REPEAT THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THE WAVE.
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR SOUTH TEXAS WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING PW
VALUES NO HIGHER THAN 1.8 INCHES. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WAITING FOR MORE MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE BACKING OFF THE POP CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE TO THE UPPER 90S EAST TO NEAR 105 WEST...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS
MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT...AND FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH WINDS AT LEAST 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. SEAS
WILL BE RISING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL
CONTINUE EACH DAY...WITH SOME ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LAGUNA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  83  95  82  96 /   0   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          81  96  80  97 /   0   0  10  10
HARLINGEN            81  99  79  99 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN              81 101  80 102 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      81 101  80 103 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  89  82  93 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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