Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 211730 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Breezes around 15 knots will continue through the
afternoon, while CU field continues to lift above 3000 feet.
Lighter winds and clearing skies return after sunset and continue
@author the night. Another round of ground fog is anticipated
around sunrise tomorrow, similar to the past 3 mornings. Have
added tempo groupings for MIFG for shallow ground fog expected.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Winds remained at light levels throughout the
overnight hours instead of diminishing to calm, and therefore the
anticipated fog has failed to develop at the aerodromes and has
thus been removed from the current issuance of TAFs. VFR will
prevail today with scattered clouds and moderate winds. Continued
winds tonight should prevent fog formation once again.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): Surface observations indicate that
the temperature and dewpoint spread is tightening, and if surface
winds continue to diminish or even become calm over the next few
hours, fog will likely develop. Precipitation-wise, isolated showers
are anticipated today and tonight over the Lower Texas coastal
waters as a deep 500 mb trough gradually moves into the Lone Star
State. Isolated to scattered convection is then possible for the
entire BRO CWFA on Sunday as a cold front sweeps through Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from northwest to southeast.
No significant cold air advection during the short term forecast
period will allow well above normal temperatures to persist.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday): The beginning of the
work week will be much cooler and drier in the wake of the cold
front on Sunday. The main impacts starting Monday will be cool
morning temperatures and much lower humidity, as any rain chances
will quickly drop off with high pressure building in across the
area. Another front will move through on Tuesday as a reinforcing
shot of high pressure moves southward into Texas. This will keep
temperatures below normal with occasionally breezy north winds
through mid-week. By Thursday, high pressure will move into the
eastern Gulf, briefly shifting winds back to the south across Deep
South Texas. Temperatures and dew points will return back to
normal with highs in the upper 80s Thursday and Friday. Models
keep wanting to bring in another cold front next weekend, but
with a substantial disagreement in timing. Decided to keep
precipitation chances at 20% or less due to very low confidence.

MARINE: (Now through Sunday): Light to moderate winds and generally
moderate seas will prevail in advance of the late Sunday morning
passage of a cold front. However, the significant increase in winds
and building of seas will not occur until Sunday night, officially
after the short term portion of the marine forecast. Small Craft
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be
needed from today to sunset Sunday.

Sunday night through Thursday: In the wake of the cold front on
Sunday, north winds will quickly increase and seas will build
overnight into Monday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will be
likely. The gradient will relax early on Tuesday before
reinforcing high pressure brings another shot of strong north
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday with additional Small Craft
Advisories possible. Low to moderate seas will continue thereafter
through Thursday with winds shifting back to the south.




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