Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 190725 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
225 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...500 mb ridging will gradually build over the RGV
through the next 24 hours which will tend to lower down the deeper
layer moisture values. So expect any convection to be pretty
sparse over the region with minimal impacts to aviation ops. So
will go with VFR conditions for all three RGV airports through the
upcoming TAF period.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...Showers have mostly dissipated after loss of peak
heating, with only a couple low-topped showers well north of KMFE
moving NWWD. SCT deck thinning at local airports, with no low
clouds expected overnight. Breezy conditions currently will abate
in the next 2 hours, with southeast winds around 5kts overnight.
Breezy conditions forecast again tomorrow, with winds from 140-150
degrees at 15kts with some gusts in the lower 20s. A mostly dry
forecast expected tomorrow, but a couple brief seabreeze showers
may dot the region around KBRO and KHRL early afternoon as they
quickly move to the northwest.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 234 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night): An elongated 500mb ridge
across the western north Atlantic extending westward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico into south Texas and northeast Mexico will
continue to provide subsidence across the CWA tonight into Friday
even as low level moisture remains high across the Rio Grande valley
and northern ranchlands. Will continue to see isolated convection
across the coastal sections of the CWA this afternoon and further
inland as the seabreeze front moves westward. Will mention a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the extreme western
portions of deep south TX this evening where higher low to mid level
moisture may allow late seabreeze convection to develop. The
seabreeze front will develop across the coastal sections again on
Friday and isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely develop
along this boundary Friday afternoon across the eastern portions of
deep south Texas as a result. Winds will be breezy Fri afternoon as
the pressure gradient increases across the lower TX coast Friday.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): main theme for the period
will be the steady strengthening of the upper ridge over the
northwest Gulf...more so in the Mon-Tue time frame. For Saturday,
enough moisture hangs around to combine with daytime heating to
trigger widely scattered showers/thunderstorms, so expanded slight
chances of precipitation forecast area-wide. For Sunday, a weak
trough aloft looks to round the west end of the upper high,
bringing with it additional moisture for somewhat enhanced
chances of precipitation from Saturday. Currently, have 30-40
percent chances going for Sunday and do not see any reason to
deviate from that. As the trough pushes north away from the Rio
Grande Valley on Monday, will see somewhat decreased chances of
precipitation, but widely scattered activity still possible across
the entire region. Temperatures in the Sat-Mon time frame should
remain fairly close to seasonal averages.
As the ridge over the northwest Gulf builds and the airmass dries
a bit more on Tuesday, chances of precipitation decrease further
and will keep chances of precipitation limited to those locations
most favored by the sea breeze over the eastern third of the
forecast area. Wed-Thu look dry at this time as the air mass over
deep south Texas dries out even further in response to days of
broad sustained subsidence. Overall, temperatures during the
second half of the extended period will hover around somewhat
above normal values.
MARINE (Tonight through Friday Night): Seas were near 3 feet
with south winds near 8 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light to
moderate southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters
tonight with surface high pressure across the western north
Atlantic extending westward into the Gulf of Mexico and low
pressure across west Texas and the TX panhandle. The pressure
gradient will be slightly stronger Friday compared to today and
winds will be slightly higher offshore as a result. Moderate
southeast winds will prevail across the lower TX coast Friday into
Fri night. SCEC conditions are possible across the Laguna Madre
during the day Friday and offshore waters Fri night as a result.
Saturday through Tuesday: with the upper high over the northwest
Gulf strengthening through the period, the pressure gradient
remains rather slack across the region, thus modest winds/seas
expected to continue.
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