Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241937
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
237 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night):
500 mb ridging will continue to be the main player in the
forecast through Wednesday, while a 500 mb trough/closed low digs
across the western US and another closed low moves across the
northern plains. As the lows translate east, leeside surface lows
will be induced across the plains. This will aide in strengthening
the pressure gradient across Deep South Texas resulting in breezy
southeasterly winds. Convection will be limited due to the ridging
in place through Wednesday. By Wednesday night, the ridge axis
will have shifted east and midlevel disturbances moving through
the flow may fire up convection over the Mexican plateau. Some of
this activity may move into the western portions of the CWA and as
such have maintained a slight chance for Wednesday night. Abundant
cloud cover today has slowed warming especially west and north,
with forecast high temperatures likely not being realized. Mostly
cloudy skies and moderate southeasterly winds tonight, will keep
overnight lows on the warm side with temperatures only dropping
into the mid to upper 70s. Although breezy south to southeasterly
winds are expected Wednesday and could help temperatures spike up
believe that the mostly cloudy skies could limit how high temps
go, so have nudged max temps down a degree or two.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday):
The H5 trough finally ejects eastward later in the week as the
next trough sweeps through the four corners region. This puts the
region in better dynamics Thursday into Friday, during which time
impulses will sweep around the southern end of the trough and
across Texas. Models have similar timing of these impulses, moving
across south Texas Thursday evening and Friday evening. This
should be able to tap some moisture and daytime heating
instability to spark showers and thunderstorms. Most of the
strongest activity won`t happen until the impulse is further into
Texas, but the area could see some briefly strong storms both
evenings. The trough axis passes late Friday night, with weak
ridging and drier air bringing back the capping inversion to the
region for most of the weekend. There may be enough moisture
trapped close to the sfc to spark a few diurnal seabreeze-induced
showers early next week, depending on where the capping inversion
settles.

&&

.MARINE:
Strengthening low pressure over the plains combining with high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will result in the pressure
gradient tightening across the lower Texas coastal waters.
Moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas are expected with
small craft exercise caution conditions prevailing across the Gulf
Waters through the period and the Laguna Madre Wednesday afternoon
and evening.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  89  80  90 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          79  91  79  91 /  10  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            79  94  79  93 /  10  10  20  20
MCALLEN              79  96  79  93 /  10  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78  98  78  96 /  10  10  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  84  80  83 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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