Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 272335
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
635 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR IS PREVAILING AT THE AERODROMES RIGHT NOW WITH
MODERATE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET.
MVFR WILL SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS FALLING TO NEAR 2K
FEET AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR WILL QUICKLY RESUME AFTER
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CEILINGS NEAR 5K
FEET...MORE OR LESS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WITH A SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EDGING EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWEST...DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND WEST TEXAS...WITH ENERGY ALOFT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
SPC BUMPS THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UP TO MARGINAL FOR THE AREA ON DAY
TWO...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER LINE
OF STORMS ON THE DRY LINE...WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE BIG BEND...OR A
SECONDARY CLUSTER FARTHER EAST...LATE THURSDAY...AND MAY PROPAGATE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER VALLEY THU
NIGHT.

OTHER ASPECTS OF THE SHORT TERM ARE SEASONAL AND FAIRLY BENIGN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 95 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 75 TO
80. LOOK FOR LIGHT NIGHTTIME TO MODERATE AND GUSTY DAYTIME SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. COASTAL STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE FORECAST PWAT OF AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG A
SEA BREEZE...BUT A WEAK WIND SHIFT WON`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE GLOBAL MODELS PROG A
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA AS A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLY
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX LATE THURS NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
AND PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN RANCHANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH TX SATURDAY AND MOISTURE WILL POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...MAINTAINING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN THE SHORT TERM. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS PSBL
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE...AND ON THE LAGUNA THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AND BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH TX.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE COASTAL BEND.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 53 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR SBNT2 IS 55 FEET. AT 55 FEET...MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD
PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE
AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS NEAR 19 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 24 FEET SUNDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR
LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24 FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST
SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED
RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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