Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 292024
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
324 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE PERSIST COASTAL
TROUGH/WEAK LOW AND BETTER INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. BRO RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS TEXAS AND A 500MB LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IS IN PLACE /ABOVE 820MB/ COURTESY OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.73
INCHES. THE DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
AREA SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION ACROSS JIM HOGG...STARR AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

LIGHT WINDS...AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BELOW 6000 FEET SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
PATCHY GROUND FOG/INCREASE LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FOR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS/WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR
THE COAST. ANY PATCHY FOG LIFTS BY MID MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE BEACHES TO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOVES THIS
FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS CWA ON TUESDAY. SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
POPS FOR TUESDAY...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C/US 281. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 90S WEST OF HWY 77 AND 80S ALONG THE
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A FAIRLY DEEP 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WED THROUGH
FRI. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SOME DECENT MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DECENT POPS
FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRI. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO
LINGER OVER THE REGION WITH ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK
SURFACE COASTAL TROFFING PERSISTING INTO SAT. SINCE BOTH MODELS
APPEAR TO BE KEYING ON THIS WILL LEAVE IN SOME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS
INTO SAT AND SAT NIGHT THEN DRYING OUT THE POPS SUN AND MON.

CAA IN THE WAKE WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED WITH THE BIGGEST DROPS
SHOWING UP IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE DAYTIME HIGHS SPIKED UP IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INTO THE
WEEKEND.

FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWS UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECWMF IN
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC TRENDS THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA ON FRI. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS BEEN
PRETTY GOOD FOR TEMPS BUT ONLY AVERAGE FOR POPS WITH BIGGER SWINGS
SHOWING UP IN THE POPS FROM SAT ONWARDS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH DAY 7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
THROUGH DAY 7 IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TEMPS AND NEAR AVERAGE FOR
POPS.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF
2.6 FEET. THE LINGERING WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST
FLOW FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THEN WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2
TO 3 FEET OR LESS NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
ON FRI THE PGF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO RESULT IN ANY SCA CONDITIONS FOR FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER SCEC
CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  86  77  89 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          74  89  77  90 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            73  89  76  91 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              74  90  76  92 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  91  75  93 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  84  79  87 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65





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