Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191725 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Daytime CU field is building near the coast, with SCT
to nearly BKN outside the front door, while CIGS remain around
5000 feet. Light easterly flow will continue through the remainder
of the afternoon before lowering to L/V overnight. A few showers
are noted on radar in the flight corridors to the north, but will
not threaten the local airports through tonight.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light winds prevail across
deep south Texas this morning. VFR conditions will continue for
the next 24 hours as surface high pressure slowly moves east of
the region. Light and variable winds will become east at 12 knots
or less later this morning into the afternoon. Light and variable
winds expected to return after sunset this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Surface high pressure anchored
over the mid-Atlantic states this morning will slowly move east
through the period. Light and variable winds this morning will
become east this afternoon. The weak onshore flow will continue to
allow low level moisture to increase across deep south Texas. Rain
chances however, will remain rather limited for the next 36 hours
due to precipitable waters around an inch or so and very dry air
above 850mb. Will keep the mention of any convection over the
coastal waters and along the coast. Mostly sunny skies and very warm
today with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s near
the coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s across the west. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the 60s, except for the lower 70s
near the coast, under partly cloudy skies. High temperatures Friday
will be in the 90s area wide, except for the mid to upper 80s near
the coast, with a mix of sun and clouds. The long east fetch will
develop today building swells tonight and Friday. Not sure whether
there will be significant beach runup tonight or Friday, but will be
something to keep an eye on.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): The long term portion
of the forecast continues to trend drier with the passage of the
cold front Sunday afternoon, with the most likely precipitation
falling over the Lower Texas coastal waters, and low-end-scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the inland areas. Ahead of the
front, a smattering of isolated showers is possible over the
immediate coastal counties and/or the adjacent waters, with dry
weather quickly developing and persisting in the wake of the
front. Near to above normal temperatures are also expected for the
entire forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Friday): High pressure anchored over the mid-
Atlantic states will slowly move east through the period. This will
allow the onshore flow to increase and the long east fetch across
the Gulf will push slightly higher wave heights towards the lower
Texas coast tonight and Friday. Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions will be likely across the Gulf waters tonight and Friday.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
at times through the period.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Adverse marine conditions, with
Small Craft Advisory possible for portions or all of the Lower
Texas coastal waters, are anticipated Sunday night and Monday due
to the passage of a cold front, and again Tuesday night and
Wednesday due to a reinforcing surge of northerly to northeasterly
winds in the wake of the front. Otherwise, light to moderate winds
and low to moderate seas are forecast for the remainder of the
long term marine forecast period.




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