Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 131736 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Cloud cover will remain minimal during the next 24
hours as high pressure remains in control aloft. Main aviation
threat will be breezy conditions today and tomorrow. Winds have
already risen to 15 to 20 knots with higher gusts, which will
continue through sunset. Winds will remain around 10 knots
overnight, with a gradual decrease in gusts. Gusty winds will rise
again tomorrow, with winds right near 20 knots during the
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR is prevailing at the aerodromes with widespread
low cloudiness largely unobserved. VFR will continue today as
surface winds become breezy to windy with scattered higher clouds
also present. VFR should continue tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): 500 mb high pressure over Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight will yield
to a weak inverted 500 mb trough that will briefly develop over
the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Although not enough
available moisture will exist to produce convection over the
inland portion of the BRO CWFA during the during short term
forecast period, enough moisture will be present to produce
isolated showers tonight over the Gulf of Mexico waters east of
Padre Island. The presence of the 500 mb high, limited cloud
cover, and no chance of rain inland will produce well above normal
temperatures today through tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Saturday): Synoptic pattern
through the coming week will be primarily subsident with mid-level
high pressure stretching from Texas to the Southeast U.S., which
will bring continued hot and dry conditions to Deep South Texas
for much of the period. Tuesday and Wednesday, moderate
south/southeasterly flow and strong subsidence all the way up the
column above 850mb will bring very hot temperatures and high dew
points, leading to dangerous heat indices each afternoon. We
could approach the criterion for a Heat Advisory with a few
locations seeing heat indices of 111 to 114F.

Aside from isolated seabreeze convection, the forecast will remain
dry, especially out west in the Upper Valley and Ranchlands. There
may be some hope by the end of the week with the development of a
weak inverted trough along the coast. Still, though, have only
mentioned 15 to 20% east of Highway 281/I-69C with unimpressive
moisture depth.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds around
18 knots gusting to around 21 knots with seas slightly over 3.5 feet
with a period of 5 seconds at 02 CDT/07 UTC. High pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico will interact with intensifying thermal low pressure
over north-central Mexico during the period. Likely Small Craft
Exercise Caution and possible Small Craft Advisory winds will affect
portions or all of the lower Texas coastal waters, with moderate
seas for the Gulf of Mexico waters east of Padre Island.

Monday night through Saturday: Moderate to strong S/SE flow is
expected through Wednesday with high pressure over the northeast
Gulf and deepening low pressure in the High Plains. Gulf waters
will build to 4 to 6 feet and possibly 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday.
Small Craft Advisories are possible Tuesday and Wednesday with
improving conditions the rest of the week.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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