Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 101720 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1120 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR COND TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS STATIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT AIDED IN
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND SO HAS
THE STREAM OF CIRRUS. TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH IS
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN EXCELLENT NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
WILL LEAD TO LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WHICH IS
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND STALLS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-69C. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER WITH READINGS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-69E AND LOWER 20S
EAST OF I-69E. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
WHICH PRECLUDES ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS WELL THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING IN
NORTHERN TEXAS. THERE MAY BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF LOWER RH VALUES AND
STRONGER WINDS TO WARRANT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-69C.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY QUIET THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS UPSTREAM RIDGING TENDS
TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EAST. THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...BUT
OTHERWISE RATHER SEASONAL WEATHER. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EAST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE FORM OF A CANADIAN OUTBREAK CONTINUING TO SUPPLY HIGH PRESSURE
TO EAST TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE EASTWARD MOVING RIDGE BY MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTH
TO WEST TEXAS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE CWA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT POISED TO ADVANCE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MDT TO
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS JUST INLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE DRY SIDE...
WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED OVER LAND...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF MONDAY AFTN AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A SMALL HIT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT THE FEW
DEGREES THAT THEY DROP WILL BRING THEM CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES
WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AGAIN. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

MARINE...

NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1.3 FEET WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 13 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE FROM 1-2 FEET TODAY TO 3-4
FEET THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTH GULF. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WILL EASE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT/LOW TO MDT THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
SUNDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE
WEST...AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS UPSTREAM WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO MODERATE. NO
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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