Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 171824 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
124 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...500 mb ridging in place over the region will maintain
the stable conditions over the RGV airports over the upcoming 24
hours. Daytime heating this afternoon may produce some fair wx cu
over the next 24 hours. However no low ceilings expected through
the upcoming 24 hours. MAV and MET guidance hints are the
potential for some areas of late night/early morning fog for the
Hebbronville and Falfurrias areas tonight. At this point it
appears it will remain limited to the northern tier of counties
and will not include any mention of this in the RGV TAFs. VFR
condtions expected to prevail through the upcoming 24 hours for
all three RGV airports.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Cloud cover has been minimal overnight, with only a
few midlevel clouds moving in from the south. They have been thick
enough to inhibit most fog formation, with only a few hints of
very shallow ground fog here at KBRO. Daytime CU field sparks
alter this morning, as temperatures rise into the 90s again. Cigs
will remain around 4000 all afternoon. Southeast winds will
increase to 10 to 15 knots, especially after the seabreeze
boundary moves inland. Conditions overnight will be calmer again,
with l/v winds and minimal cloud cover.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): H5 ridge remains dominant across
south Texas during the next 36 hours. Winds aloft remain light and
variable, while surface winds continue remain southeasterly at 10 to
15 miles per hour. Temperatures today will remain consistent with
the past several days, and should approach record highs for all
forecast areas. As the ridge slowly begins to drift eastward tonight
into tomorrow, some moisture will begin to rise further upwards into
the atmosphere. While there won`t be enough moisture just yet for
showers on Tuesday, we will likely see more abundant cloud cover
during the afternoon, with more vertical development during peak
heating in the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Low to mid level
moisture will increase across the western Gulf of Mexico into
south Texas Tues night into Wednesday with the 500mb ridge across
the southeast United States and 500mb trough across the Rockies.
Surface low pressure is expected to develop across northwest TX
Wednesday and high pressure across the western U.S. will build
into the state in the wake of a cold front moving through south TX
Thursday as the upper level trough across the Rockies moves
eastward. This will provide a slight chance of rain across the CWA
Wednesday into Wed night and a better chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms Thursday as moisture pools along and ahead
of the front. Elevated convection is progged to develop across
deep south TX in the wake of the front Thurs night but drier and
cooler air will finally filter into the area Friday bringing an
end to rain chances Fri morning. Unseasonable temperatures will
persist through Wednesday before returning to near normal
Thursday and slightly below normal temperatures will prevail
through the rest of the week into the weekend before returning to
normal by the end of the forecast period.

MARINE (Now through Tuesday):  Surface ridge remains in place
stretching along the northern Gulf. This will continue to produce
steady seas of 2 to 3 feet across the gulf and a generally light
chop on the Laguna Madre. Winds will remain from the southeast
around 10 knots today before rising slightly overnight.

Tuesday night through Friday...Moderate southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Tues night before the pressure
gradient weakens across the lower Texas coast Wednesday as a cold
front moves into northwest TX. Light southeast winds will back to
the east Wed night and to the northeast Thursday before the front
moves through the coastal waters Thurs evening. Wind shift to the
north and increase Thurs night into Friday. Small craft advisories
will be needed for the coastal waters Thurs night and Friday as
the pressure gradient increases across the western Gulf of Mexico
in the wake of the cold front.




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