Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 170516 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate a
few low clouds across portions of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings
were near 2300ft at KEBG to near 3000ft at KMFE. Expect VFR
conditions with brief MVFR ceilings the rest of tonight into
early Thurs morning as low level moisture allows patchy low clouds
to develop. 500mb subtropical ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and
south Texas will continue to provide subsidence across the area
Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail across the Rio Grande valley
and northern ranchlands as a result.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...High pressure will continue to dominate the synoptic
weather pattern with a few moderate wind gusts and mostly rain-
free conditions. Low-level moisture may bring a few clouds
overnight tonight, but VFR categories should prevail the next 24
hours. Surface high pressure is expected to move westward into the
north central Gulf, so winds should be a bit lighter tomorrow with
gusts ranging from 20 to 25 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):
We expect very little change through this period. The upper air
analysis this morning showed the subtropical ridge over the Gulf
pushing into the southern plains. At the surface, high pressure
was centered over the Gulf and winds were from the southeast
keeping moist air in place. Strong subsidence under the upper
ridge will keep the weather dry. A tight pressure gradient over
the area will keep winds breezy tonight. Thursday should be very
similar to today with breezy southeasterly winds and above normal
temperatures. Heat index values will range between 108 to 112
degrees. The highest values will only be in isolated spots for a
hour or two during the afternoon. Dry weather will continue
Thursday night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday):
The upper level ridge will slosh around the Gulf region through
the end of the forecast period, but some weak disturbances will
move toward the coast during this time. These disturbances may
produce isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the coastal
waters during the daytime hours Friday through Sunday. Monday
through Wednesday slight chances for convection will spill across
the coast into the eastern third of our forecast area.
Temperatures will continue to be above average through the long
term period.

Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail across
the coastal waters this evening as surface low pressure across the
southern plains and surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico provides a strong pressure gradient across the lower
Texas coast. A small craft advisory remains in effect this evening
for the northern part of the Laguna Madre. The pressure gradient
will remain strong across the western Gulf of Mexico tonight
before weakening on Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed
for the offshore waters tonight. For Friday and beyond surface
high pressure over the Gulf will shift to the west and result in
light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas for the Lower
Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory are not likely to be needed.&&

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-


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