Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 260912
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LARGE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS AND EXTENDING FROM ARIZONA TO ARKANSAS TO REMAIN WELL ANCHORED
THIS WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER MEAN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO RESULT IN A VERY HOT AND
DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.  THE SHEAR AXIS THAT BROUGHT A FEW
SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS PRETTY MUCH DAMPENED
OUT AS IT TRACKS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS ALONG WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THEN NORMAL TO RESULT IN MAX
TEMPERATURES 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TAKES THE RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 90S JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST TO 103-107 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR
LOWER DAYTIME DEW POINTS KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES FROM EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND COMBINES WITH THE INTENSE THERMAL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO. 20-30 KNOTS BETWEEN 925-850MB TO KEEP SURFACE
WINDS AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY 20-30 MPH BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE UPPER
NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP THE SKIES RATHER HAZY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER
VALLEY WITH SMOKE FROM THE MATAMOROS LANDFILL BEING DIRECTED
NORTHWARD AND SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES BEING DIRECTED SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. EPA`S AIR QUALITY INDEX FOR OUR REGION IS IN
THE MODERATE RANGE WHICH OVERALL DOES NOT POSE ANY HEALTH RISK
EXCEPT FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE USUALLY SENSITIVE TO OZONE AND HAVE
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GENERAL PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK INVOLVES THE DOMINANT H5 RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PW VALUES NOTED IN GFS AND NAM FALL BELOW 1.25 INCHES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
IN ESSENCE...THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ONE CLOUD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LONGER TERM FORECAST HINGES ON H5 TROUGH TO
THE EAST FORCING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLE COLD FRONT TO DIVE INTO TEXAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MODELS DO NOT YET BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF ON UPGRADING POPS FOR
FRIDAY. POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY HAVE BEEN UPPED TO 20 PERCENT WITH
THE SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE OF A THREAT AND THE SEABREEZE
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT AND LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MORE WESTWARD COMBINING WITH A THERMAL LOW
OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO TO MAINTAIN THE STRONGER AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT A LONG DURATION IS  NOT
ANTICIPATED SO NO ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS TO
SLOWLY RESPOND SINCE THEY ARE STARTING OUT SO LOW. A MODERATE SEA TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE AREA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN
SUMMERTIME SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND HEAT LOW ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED DURING THE DAY...AS THE HEAT
LOW ABATES CUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DAYTIME WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...LOWERING TO 5 TO
10 OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE EQUALLY AFFECTED BY A LONG FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS AFTER FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SEAS TO
RELAX TO 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  81  97  79 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          98  79  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN           101  77 101  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN             102  79 101  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 103  78 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   93  81  93  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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