Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 101721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1121 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as
surface high pressure remains in control over the area. Winds will
trend light and variable with some passing high level clouds.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Surface high pressure over South Texas will maintain
light winds with only scattered cirrus clouds moving overhead.
VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): Quiet conditions continue this
Sunday morning with mostly clear skies and cold temperatures.
Synoptic pattern remains similar to yesterday with a deep trough
over the Northeast U.S. and WNW to zonal flow through the short term
period across Deep South Texas. Very dry air from near the surface
through 500mb will keep rain chances out with temperatures gradually
warming to near normal highs. With temperatures hitting a few
degrees above most model guidance on Saturday, decided to increase
Sunday`s highs with 1000-500mb thicknesses expected to increase.
Also increased Monday`s highs by a few degrees to them mid 70s,
which should be a very pleasant day. Low dew points will keep
overnight lows well below normal in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): A nearly zonal flow
aloft will prevail through much of the period. Two weak cold fronts
are expected to move through deep south Texas during the upcoming
week. Surface high pressure initially across the CWA will move
east Monday night into Tuesday in advance of the next the front.
Northerly winds will develop on Tuesday in the wake of the weak
front. Surface high pressure builds across Texas Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Moisture begins to increase on Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east over the Gulf of Mexico. The next cold
front arrives late Thursday with some mild CAA moving in behind
the front. The latest GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement
with the overall pattern including very low rain chances through
Thursday. The GFS indicates that a 500 mb low will develop over the
Baja region by late week resulting in some decent moisture advection
over the area. The GFS continues to be wetter than the ECMWF. Will
lean towards the previous forecast and latest Superblend for pops
and temperatures through the period.

Overall, near to above normal temperatures are expected through the
period. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 70s.
Overnight low temperatures initially in 40s will gradually moderate
into the 50s towards the end of the week. Rain chances will remain
nil through mid week with rain chances increasing by late week.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Surface high pressure over the middle
Texas coast will maintain light northerly flow through the rest of
the weekend. Seas will also drop to 2 feet or less on Monday with
pleasant boating conditions.

Monday Night through Thursday Night: Favorable marine conditions
will prevail along the lower Texas coastal waters through much of
the period. Two weak cold fronts will bring moderate north winds on
Tuesday and again late Thursday. No Small Craft Advisories are
expected through Thursday night.




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