Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231128
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
628 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS WERE NEAR
1700FT AT KAPY TO NEAR 3000FT AT KMFE. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM
WITH FOG AT KEBG TO NEAR 6SM WITH FOG AT KMFE AND KPIL. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z AS MIXING
INCREASES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES MOVING EASTWARD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT. &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA TODAY AS THE
500MB LOW/TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AZ/NORTHWEST MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
PROG CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MCS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND THE MID TO UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE WHERE AND WHEN THE MCS DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND WHETHER IT WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS SUN
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA STARTING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WILL MENTION SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS LATE
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING AS SPC HAS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST TX IN THE WAKE OF THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER WEST TX MOVING EASTWARD.

WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH A MODERATE RISK LIKELY TODAY AND A HIGH
RISK LIKELY ON SUNDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAMERON...WILLACY AND KENEDY
COUNTIES STARTING THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING SINCE AT LEAST
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS THE H5 TROUGH SWING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...ONE FINAL VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND IT
THROUGH TEXAS MONDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND GOOD
DYNAMICS...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITHOUT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND LIMITED MORE TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGIONS. DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK. MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY OFF TO THE
NORTH...SO RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 4 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 16 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD SCEC FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS A
RESULT. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE CLASH BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND STRONG SFC RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE AND CHOPPY WATERS
ON THE LAGUNA. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS TO THE WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NE...WITH MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING INTO MIDWEEK. SEAS WILL RELAX DOWN TO AROUND 4
FEET...STILL ELEVATED SOMEWHAT BY THE LONG SELY FETCH ACROSS THE
GULF.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     TXZ248>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

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