Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221122 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
622 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...1500 FT DECK SPREADING NORTH THRU KHRL AND KMFE...OR
THE MID VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND MAY ARRIVE AT KBRO LATER THIS
MORNING. CIGS WILL RISE DURING THE MORNING AND LIFT ABOVE 3000
AFTER NOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
DEEPER SFC MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE EVENING...LOWERING TO 1000 TO 1500 FT FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL DECREASE TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE SWATH OF DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE WESTERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
MOISTURE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE SFC...TEMPS WILL AGAIN JUMP HIGHER
INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESSER TODAY
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT DRIER AIR ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS
AND BOTTLES UP LLVL MOISTURE. INVERSION SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
THAT CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE SFC...LIMITING FOG FORMATION.
LOWS WILL FALL ONLY INTO THE 60S AGAIN DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING GULF MOISTURE.

MINIMAL DIFFERENCES NOTED FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE LAYER AT THE SFC.
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE MID 80S INTO THE LOWER 90S. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED DUE TO RIDGING AND DRIER AIR ALOFT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
RANCH LANDS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID
90S ACROSS THE WEST. THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE BREEZY COURTESY OF LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY DUE TO A DRY LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND ON MONDAY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HEAT SPIKE. THE ECMWF
MOS IS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...BOTH DAYS. WILL BUMP UP THE INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BUT BELOW
ECMWF MOS NUMBERS.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND POSSIBLY MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG CAPPING AND
LIMITED LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM MOVING INTO THE AREA. BUT
WILL MAINTAIN SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...L/V WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE NW GULF.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH IS ALLOWING SEAS TO
CONTINUE RELAXING RIGHT AT 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING WINDS TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESPOND UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONGOING MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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