000
FXUS64 KBRO 221857
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE TEXAS COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH OVER THIS WEAK BOUNDARY A SURFACE RIDGE
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. MAIN FEATURE IS THICK LOW CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER
DEW POINTS. THE CLOUDS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME BREAKING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF STRONGER WINDS TO MIX THROUGH THE
SURFACE INVERSION. EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE REPORTED
AROUND BROWNSVILLE EARLIER TODAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BUT
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ONLY A TRACE WITH NO REAL LIFT OF THE MOISTURE
OCCURRING AND THE INVERSION KEEPING A CAP ON THINGS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST THURSDAY AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MIXING. MORNING
LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HEAT
DEVELOPING. VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER AND NO APPRECIABLE LIFT OF
LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. BOTH MAV AND
MET ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER WITH THE GOING FORECAST
TAKING A BLEND OF TWO.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS ON FRIDAY...CAPPING THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
AND STEERING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH. DOMINANT SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE STILL
ONGOING...SO HAZE AND SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF MODELS
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...GENERALLY IN THE 90S...WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. MODELS STILL DISAGREEING ON UPPER PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED RIDGING AS SUMMERTIME
PATTERN TRIES TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY OF MID 90S TO 100 WEST.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAGUNA THURSDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST BUT NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. STEADY STATE SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND COULD LOWER TO ONE MORE FOOT ON THURSDAY.


FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DOMINANT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODEST SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 15 KNOTS EACH DAY...KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  89  78  86 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          76  90  77  88 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  93  75  89 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN              76  96  75  93 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      75  98  76  94 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  83  78  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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