Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 211903 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
203 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...RELATIVELY HIGHER LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE INTERACTING
WITH DECENT DAYTIME HEATING TO ALLOW FOR PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF
MAINLY SHOWERS WITH FEW ISOLD T-STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE BRO CWA.
MOST OF THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN MISSING THE AIRPORTS ACROSS THE
LOWER RGV AS IT MOVES WEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY LINGER ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WILL THEN WEAKEN OUT WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES TO LINGER INTO EARLY TOMORROW TO MENTION SOME
PROB30 GROUPS FOR CONV LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WED TO
EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE CONV POTENTIAL FOR THE RGV. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME PERIODIC REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER
KENEDY COUNTY WITH A FEW STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTY. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS MENTIONING OF THESE SHOWERS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. FURTHER
INLAND...DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA
IS MAINLY CONCENTRATED WEST OF FALFURRIAS EXTENDING INTO
HEBBRONVILLE AND SOUTH INTO EDINBURG AND MCALLEN AREA. FURTHER
NORTH CEILING HAVE LOWER BETWEEN MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH IT HAS STAYED AROUND MVFR LEVEL. VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NE. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPS ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY
SPREADS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING THE DAY...THIS MOISTURE AND
CONTINUOUS EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INLAND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
INCREASING PWATS AND ENHANCING SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO
ABUNDANCE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S TODAY.

TONIGHT...LOWER POPS TO ONLY 10 PERCENT AS DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING NE. THIS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND LOW 70S EAST
OF HWY 281.

WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR INFILTRATING SOUTH INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WHERE THE BETTER POTENTIAL WILL
BE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP DRIER AIR WILL MARCH DOWN THE TEXAS COASTLINE
INTO THE BRO CWFA...WHILE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BECOMES RE-
CENTERED FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THEN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. DRY WEATHER WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST...INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEARED A LITTLE
LOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. THUS...THESE WERE RAISED A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH SCEC OVER THE GULF WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE EASTERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INCREASES OVER THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTENT LOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS
WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
THEN STEADILY IMPROVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING AT THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL BEACHES CONTINUES TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAYBE THURSDAY...AS ROUGH SWELLS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES 1.5 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. MINOR BEACH EROSION AND INCREASED
DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS...AS WAVES OCCASIONALLY WASH UP TO THE DUNE LINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  84  74  84 /  10  20   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  85  71  85 /  10  20   0   0
HARLINGEN            72  85  71  85 /  10  20   0   0
MCALLEN              71  86  71  86 /  10  20   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  86  70  86 /  10  20   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  84  75  82 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...MARTINEZ





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