Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161944
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
244 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX WEDNESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX
TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WED MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND CAMERON AND HIDALGO THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HIDALGO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WEST TO EAST
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...DOMINANT SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPS
THE EXPECTED SEPTEMBER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE AREAWIDE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE PLACED WELL ENOUGH TO
DEFLECT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM HURRICANE ODILE...WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INSTEAD. LOCALLY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY FOR THE LAND AREAS AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICTS. WITHOUT A DEFINITE
TRIGGER...AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN RAGGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOWS IN THE WIDE RANGE OF MOS GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY /FROM 3 TO 43 PERCENT/. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL
STILL HAVE COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND WONT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 DAYS. LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE DIFFERING ON THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FRONT COULD REACH SOUTH TEXAS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THIS SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE LOW 90S THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...IMPEDED BY DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND SOME
CLOUD COVER.


&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTH
WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A RESULT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN LONGER RANGE
MARINE FORECAST AS DOMINANT SE FLOW CONTINUES AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EACH DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME
DECREASES SEEN FOR THE DAY SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY HOVER 3 TO
4 FEET...BEING AGITATED BY CONTINUED LOCALIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  80  87 /  40  50  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          77  90  78  88 /  40  50  20  40
HARLINGEN            77  92  78  89 /  40  50  20  40
MCALLEN              77  93  78  91 /  40  40  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  94  77  92 /  40  40  20  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  81  85 /  40  50  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ253-255.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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