Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181720
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO BE SET UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING FUNNELED INTO THE
LOWER VALLEY VIA NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS. CIGS ARE ON THE
SLOW RISE TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER THIS LIGHT RAIN
CAUSES REDUCTIONS BACK TO AROUND 1500 FEET OR SO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS BLANKET THE
ENTIRE AREA AND EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
QUITE SOME TIME. BELIEVE KBRO AND KHRL WILL GET TO VFR AND STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SREF LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KMFE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...KMFE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NEW MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IFR/LOW MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AT THE TAF SITES THEN SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS AFT 16Z THEN POSSIBLY SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VFR BY 22Z. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE BRO AND HRL AERODROMES HAS
DISSIPATED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A DECK AROUND 8K FEET. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE MFE AERODROME DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS
THE INDICATION THAT SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WOULD DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AS MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO
MOVES THE CLOUDS IN FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA. LOW CLOUDINESS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...AND BETWEEN 1K AND 2500 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF.

TODAY...INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL
PRODUCE CONTINUED ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. INHERITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S APPEARED REASONABLE AND
WERE MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE OBSERVED
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF FORECAST
THINNING/PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUDINESS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS DOES
NOT OCCUR OR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED...RESULTING IN A
GREATER ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE THE INVERTED COASTAL TROUGHINESS...
THEREBY ENDING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
AIDED BY AN INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. CLOUDINESS FROM NEIGHBORING MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...DUE TO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO.

SATURDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB HIGH WILL
CARRY OVER THE DRY WEATHER INTO THE DAYTIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONLY 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED FRIDAY HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO THE BRO CWFA.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS REGION WILL EXIT THE REGION AND
MOVE EASTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE INTO DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS NOT HAVING
A BIG SHIFT IN WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MIDDLE VALLEY WHILE THE WEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH TUESDAY.

IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT...SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZE TO WINDY
THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. SMALL CRAFT WILL
LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND DUE TO SEAS. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BUILD
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET SUNDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO 2 TO 4 FEET FOR
FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS DUE TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONUS. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN
BREEZE INTO THURSDAY. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUES TO HINT ON A DEEPER
LOW...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6
FEET WITH SCEC CONDITIONS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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