Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251623 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1123 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO OUR
AREA. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE IH-69E/US-77 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
NOON AND 2 PM AS THE SEABREEZE STARTS TO MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE IH-69C/US-281
CORRIDOR...THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THIS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE MOVES WESTWARD. THIS TREND IS
GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS. ALL THAT
SAID...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND TIMING HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY.

OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE AND THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA. ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGH OR
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PROVIDED BELOW FOR YOUR PERUSAL.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET.
UPDATED TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH DRIER AIR TO LIMIT CLOUD COVER TO FEW-SCT. A
WEAKENING UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ANTICIPATED AT THE 3 TERMINALS
SITE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING MODERATE AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 19-23Z

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...WEAKENING 250MB SHEAR LINE
LIES ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOTED OVER
OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. CENTER OF HOT RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS AS THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE REGION AND
THE AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DAMPEN OUT. SPOTTY 20 PERCENT POPS
LOOK FAIR WITH A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE DISTRIBUTION ANTICIPATED.
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY STRONGER TODAY WITH A STRONGER THERMAL LOW.
WINDS PICK UP MOSTLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT JUST SLIGHTLY
DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST AS THE SEA BREEZE COMES THROUGH A
BIT EARLIER.

TONIGHT...WARM AND MUGGY AND POSSIBLE A DEGREE WARM IF WINDS STAY UP
PASS MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE SHEAR LINE IS PRETTY MUCH LOST IN THE STRONGER
NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE. MEAN RH LOWERS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE KEEPING RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10 PERCENT. EXPECT
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO WITH LESS CLOUDS
AND LOWER RH. AFTERNOON BREEZES TO MAKE THE HEAT A BIT MORE
TOLERABLE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. THICKNESS VALUES REMAIN
STABLE AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP A CONSISTENT TEMPERATURE REGIME. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND 100 TO 105 FOR
THE WESTERN AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 105 TO 110
AREAWIDE EACH AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER. FAR EXTENDED MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE THE THE RIDGE
WILL FINALLY DISPLACE SOUTHWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH MAKES AN
UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD DRIVE. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MAY
DRIVE INTO TEXAS AGAIN...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN
LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF AND THERMAL LOW PRESSURE INLAND TO PROVIDE THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS INTO SATURDAY. WINDS STILL REMAIN LOW
ENOUGH WITH NO MENTION OF EXERCISE CAUTION OR ANY ADVISORIES.
STILL A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING
BECOMING EVEN MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
GULF RIDGE REMAINS FIRM AND THE HEAT LOW FLUCTUATES ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CAUTION MAY BE ADVISED
FOR THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG FETCH ACROSS THE GULF
BEGINS TO BUILD SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  80  95  80 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          96  78  97  79 /  20  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            99  76 100  79 /  20  10  10  10
MCALLEN             100  78 100  79 /  20  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 102  78 /  20  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  80  91  81 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... TOMASELLI
PSU/GRAPHICASTS... CAMPBELL




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