Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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500
FXUS64 KBRO 170929
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
429 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb subtropical ridge across
the Gulf of Mexico and south Texas will continue to provide
subsidence across the CWA the next couple of days. Breezy conditions
will prevail across the coastal sections this afternoon before the
pressure gradient weakens across the lower TX coast Friday. Low to
mid level moisture will increase across the lower TX coast Friday.
This will provide some isolated convection across the coastal
sections Friday. Will go with persistence for temperatures today
through Friday.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): While the first half
of the long term forecast period will feature 500 mb high pressure
dominating over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, the
second half will feature an inverted 500 mb trough that will
approach from the east and then over the BRO CWFA. Precipitation
chances will be limited to most of the adjacent coastal waters
from Friday night through Sunday night, but will then expand to
include the eastern portion of the BRO CWFA for the remainder of
the forecast as the inverted trough approaches and moves overhead.
It is possible that future forecasts may reflect a higher chance
of rain in association with the trough if precipitable water
values increase more than currently progged by model guidance.
Unfortunately, the current isolated nature of convection and
generally limited cloud cover will allow temperatures to reach
well above normal levels.
&&

.MARINE (Today through Friday): Seas were near 6 feet with south
winds near 18 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Moderate
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with
surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will be
slightly higher across the bay waters this afternoon so will word
SCEC for the Laguna Madre. The pressure gradient will weaken across
the western Gulf of Mexico Friday. Light to moderate southeast winds
will prevail across the lower Texas coast Friday.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas continue to be anticipated during the long term
portion of the marine forecast. These conditions will be due to
surface high pressure remaining generally centered over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico and extended over the Lower Texas
coastal waters.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  81  96  80 /  10  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          95  79  95  79 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            99  78  99  78 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN             101  81 101  79 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  81 103  78 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  83  91  81 /  10  10  20   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Castillo-61
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Hallman-56



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