Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
620
FXUS64 KBRO 062315 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
515 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FILTER ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OUT AND
ALSO SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
TX COASTLINE WILL EXIT OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND SUN. ANOTHER DEEP
500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MIDWEST
TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT AND DRY NW 500 MB FLOW
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE FLOW THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THE CAA. LATER TONIGHT THE PGF WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...LOW DEWPOINT READINGS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY HOLDS THE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE RGV. SO BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS
IS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED REPORT OR TWO OF NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FOUR COUNTIES. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME A FREEZE WARNING DOES
NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

AFTER TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT AROUND FROM THE S-SE SUN
AND SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE WAA TO START INCREASING. ALSO
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS BELIEVE THAT THE
MODELS ARE UNDERPLAYING THE DIURNAL HEATING EFFECTS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY AIR ON MONDAY MAY CAUSE CONDITIONS
CONDUCIVE FOR WILDFIRES...AND A RED FLAG WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...DEEP 500 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL COMBINE WITH 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PLACE THE ENTIRE
BRO CWFA IN A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD...THE
RESULT OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER. THIS EXPECTED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE AIDED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL SHIFT
FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IN DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND INTENSIFYING.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 AND METAR DATA FROM
ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE INDICATES SOLID SCA CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL MAINTAIN AN SCA FOR THE BAY AND GULF
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE PGF WILL BE WEAKENING
PRETTY QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE. SO EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO
IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT WITH LOW WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING INTO SUN
AND SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
MIGRATE FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
BREEZY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
..AND SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO THE WINDS
AT THOSE TIMES.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/63



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.