Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 091518 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1018 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR ON TAP FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A BIT OF
MORNING FOG IN THE MIX. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MFE FOR PATCHY
CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS
FAR OFFSHORE AND OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
FROM THE WEST. THE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVE WEST TO
EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE TODAY. A WEAK AND DRY SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP AROUND MID
DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. THE FORECAST IS FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO...BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR INCREASED CHANCES AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SIX HOURLY POPS FROM DAWN TO DUSK
THURSDAY...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...WILL INCREASE
TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON...WHILE TWELVE HOURLY POPS FOR
THE DAY ARE IN THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. MAINTAINED THE INHERITED
30 PERCENT POPS FOR THE SIX HOUR FORECAST BLOCKS...MOVING THE
EMPHASIS FROM THE MARINE AND EASTERN SECTIONS TO JUST THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.

IN GENERAL...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF TO INFLUENCE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW. A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
HIGHER CLOUDS TODAY AND A FEW MORE LOWER CLOUDS TOMORROW. SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL...
WITH 90S DAYTIME AND MID TO UPPER 70S OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPS ARE
STAYING NEAR NORMAL THANKS TO SUFFICIENT CLOUDINESS TO BLOCK FULL
SOLAR HEATING. A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP TODAY...WITH PWAT
AROUND 1.85 INCHES TO SUPPORT IT...BUT ANY RAIN PRODUCTION WILL BE
SLIGHT TO NIL AS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY. PWAT DOES RISE TO
AROUND TWO INCHES ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ALL AROUND
DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAKNESS ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
CONVECTION FROM THE SEA BREEZE ON THURSDAY MAY LINGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER VALLEY/FAR WEST...GENERALLY WEST OF I-69C/HWY
281...THURSDAY EVENING AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. MOISTURE
DECREASES ON SATURDAY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WEST AND
500 MB RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 100 DEGREE READING FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BLANKET
THE NORTHWEST GULF IN THE SHORT TERM. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.
THE NORTHERN TIP OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...PRODUCING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ALLOWING A
FEW TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  89  79 /  10  20  30  10
BROWNSVILLE          90  77  90  78 /  10  20  30  10
HARLINGEN            93  76  92  77 /  10  10  30  10
MCALLEN              94  77  94  77 /  10  10  30  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      96  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  87  80 /  10  20  30  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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