Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261133 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
633 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD
SHORE. THIS OUTFLOW...ALONG WITH THE SEABREEZE...ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPO TSRA ADDED TO TAF FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WILL PUT AN END TO SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...IT`S NOT TOO OFTEN THAT
YOU CAN SEE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BUT THERE IT IS JUST OFFSHORE DRIFTING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON THE FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE OF MOISTURE AS
IS MOVES TO THE ESE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP ALONG THIS AND/OR THE SEABREEZE LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR CAMERON AND SOUTHER HIDALGO
COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED FURTHER
NORTH...AS THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND DRIER AIR WILL
ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE REGION TODAY...HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
YESTERDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE PRETTY WARM. MUCH DRIER PARCEL MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SHUTTING DOWN ALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PW VALUES MAY FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES...WHICH WILL MEAN NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AGAIN
JUMPING INTO THE LOW 100S...BUT LOWER DEWPOINT READINGS WILL KEEP
HEAT INDEX READINGS UNDER 105.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES/NORTHERN MEXICO AND A 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. A 500MB LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TX DIMINISHES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY AND MOVES
INLAND ACROSS SOUTH TX MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE 500MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILING OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE MSL FIELD TO
REMAIN FAIRLY RELAXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST WINDS AND LOW
SEAS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WITH NO ADVISORIES. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A POOL OF MOISTURE AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS A RESULT.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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