000
FXUS64 KBRO 121103
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
603 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...CANCELLED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CAMERON COUNTY AS
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED. COLD FRONT IS MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
AS WE SPEAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...COLD FRONT STILL ON TAP FOR
THIS MORNING WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG
NORTH WINDS AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CROSS AREA BEACHES
TODAY...DRIER AIR LEADING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.

NOW...COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. EVEN SOME REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN TEXAS YESTERDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN
OUR AREA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE GULF AND LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. WILL HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR CAMERON COUNTY AS VISIBILITIES
RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 MILE OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTY THROUGH 13Z AT
WHICH TIME THE WINDS SHOULD BE SWITCHING AROUND AND SPEEDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

COLD FRONT AND WIND ADVISORY...TIMING OF THE FRONT IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RANCH LANDS 11-12Z AND INTO THE VALLEY 13-14Z. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND BECOME STRONG. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20
TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN HOISTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN A WIND ADVISORY WEST OF
THIS AREA AND THE DAY SHIFT WILL METWATCH IF ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND FALL TO
10-20 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND SEAS QUICKLY RISING TO 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL OCCUR TODAY. IT IS HIGHLY
HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TO GET IN THE WATER TODAY AND HIGHLY HIGHLY
ENCOURAGED TO STAY DRY AND STAY ON LAND. DON`T RISK YOUR LIFE...RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL IMPROVE BY FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND 20 FOOT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST TODAY AND
ISSUED A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECREASE AND RH VALUES INCREASE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE RANCH LANDS TO LOWER 50S
AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO LOUISIANA THURSDAY WITH WINDS
COMING AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN
TO THE AREA BUT WILL BE A COOL WIND OFF THE GULF SO HIGHS WILL
REMAIN MODERATED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...BENIGN WEATHER
WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM...WITH A FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN AND
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING OUT OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
PROCLIVITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOWS WILL
CONTINUE WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE EJECTING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA OR ARIZONA AREA. MOISTURE WILL FEED FROM THE GULF ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS AND INTO THE SYSTEM AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND
EVEN SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM EXITS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE
SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH A SFC
LOW FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...JUST IN TIME
TO REESTABLISH A SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FEED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
AND TAKE AND REMAINING WIND OUT OF THE SAILS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE CUTTING OFF
LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTH MEXICO...WITH DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE ALOFT
CREATING INSTABILITY ABOVE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE ODD FEATURE AS IT BACKS FARTHER INTO
NORTH AND WEST MEXICO. THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
WEST TO ALLOW IT TO COINCIDE WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY
MORNING. THE ECMWF PULLS THE FEATURE FARTHER WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH A
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY RATHER THAN MONDAY MORNING...AND
WITH LESS DEFINITIVE WEATHER. THESE DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUE...YIELDING BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
FROM THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. FOR THIS RENDITION...
DECIDED TO USE A MODEL BLEND WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF...WHICH MAINTAINED A PATH BACK TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT
STRENGTHEN TO THE EXTENT THAT THE GFS WANTS THROUGH MONDAY. KEPT THE
INHERITED TEMPS WITH THE MAIN FORECAST DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS THAN BEFORE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS FOR AROUND 6 HOURS AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PERSISTING NORTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS. PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT A BIT AND
VEER WINDS TO SOUTH...WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE PRODUCING ISOLATED
STREAMER SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING. A FRONT PUSHES CLOSE TO THE COAST
BUT DOESN`T QUITE MAKE IT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...
WITH WINDS STAYING ONSHORE. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/CUT OFF
LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTH MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MARINE WEATHER DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF
WITH LOW PRESSURE UNDER AND NEAR THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
EAST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS QUITE STRONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND THAT WAS TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE ECMWF. THE WNA WAVE
MODEL BUILDS SEAS ON THE GULF TO 10 FEET MONDAY. THE GFS SUSTAINS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE AID OF
LOW PRESSURE AND COASTAL TROUGHING OFFSHORE.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR TXZ251-254>257.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ256-
     257.

GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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