Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 221951
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
251 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night):The short term will remain
relatively quiet, though temperatures will continue to run several
degrees above normal. Mid level ridging will lie overhead, shifting
slowly east toward the Mississippi River Valley. High pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico will support south southeast winds. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the mid to upper 60s.
The axis of a mid level trough will cross the four corners area
tonight and Thurs., with pressure falls developing over the central
high plains. Winds will start out breezy, with eastern sections
becoming windy by afternoon under partly cloudy skies. High temps.
will be in the mid to upper 80s.
A front will push into Central Texas Thursday night as the Plains
storm system matures. Gulf high pressure will retreat east slightly.
Moderate southeast winds will continue locally under partly cloudy
skies, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): No significant changes to
the long term forecast this afternoon. Friday will still be
another rather windy day with winds advisories likely needed as
the surface pressure gradient remains strong. Meanwhile, a strong
storm system moving through the Panhandle Region will bring a
dryline into the western half of the CWA Friday afternoon.
Moisture is still lacking in the mid levels and current thinking
is that precip will be difficult to materialize despite some Gulf
moisture pooling along the boundary. The dryline will retreat to
the west Friday night with onshore flow dominate the flow regime.
Even then, there is little moisture return.
The storm system will move east into Arkansas and swing up into
the Mid West. All the be better dynamics will pass well north of
us, leaving Deep South Texas under zonal flow. The trailing cold
associated with the system will move into the Northern Ranchlands,
but will not move through given the lack of forcing and will
quickly move back north. Winds will not be as strong Saturday with
weak low pressure in the region.
By the Sunday, yet another storm system develops in the
Southern/Central Plains, with a tightening pressure gradient and
strong winds possible across the region. This system will rapidly
move east Monday with another cold front nearing Deep South
Texas. However, long range models do vary on if the front will
stall and then lift north before entering the RGV or if it will
drift into the region through mid week. As such, have brought in
small, but still silent POPS given this uncertainty.
Meanwhile, well above normal highs and lows are expected through
the period given the potential for dry air mixing down and
occasional downsloping winds across from the southwest.
Now through Thursday Night: Gulf high pressure will continue to
dominate, with a tightening gradient Thursday due to pressure
falls developing in the high plains tonight. Southeast winds will
ramp up to fresh by Thursday. Hence, small craft should exercise
caution conditions will be possible Thursday, with low end small
craft advisory conditions possible Thursday night.
Friday through Monday: A tight surface pressure gradient will
remain in place on Friday with hazardous winds and seas keeping
the need for SCAs through the day. A brief weakening of the
pressure gradient will allow winds to decrease below SCA
threshold, however seas will remain around 7 feet range until
early Saturday. However, the gradient will tighten again for
Sunday into Monday as yet another storm system moves through the
Central Plains with winds and seas building again.
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