000
FXUS64 KBRO 061017
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
417 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...WITH KBRO DOPPLER RADAR DOWN
FOR MAINTENANCE...KCRP RADAR IS SHOWING ECHOES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. ALSO...INHERITED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOUT 6 DEGREES TOO COOL WHEN COMPARED TO RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...SO THESE WERE INCREASED BY THE INDICATED AMOUMT.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CRP CWFA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DRY AIR INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. INHERITED CLOUD COVER INDICATED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...WITH MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGESTING OVERCAST...THE 500 MB FLOW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
THICK CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 8K AND 10K FEET STREAMING OUT OF MEXICO...
OPTED TO FORECAST CLOUDY SKIES FOR TODAY. INHERITED DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MORE REFLECTIVE OF WARMER MAV GUIDANCE INSTEAD OF
COOLER MET. WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND SURFACE WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE
MET...WHICH RESULTED IN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH NEIGHBORING WFO CRP
TOO.

TONIGHT...DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AND THEREFORE THE DRY WEATHER
ALSO PERSISTS...EVEN THOUGH WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS FORMS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. PREVIOUSLY-FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
APPEARED TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS
OBSERVED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED SEVERAL DEGREES AND ARE NOW MORE IN
KEEPING WITH MAV GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WAS DUMPED FROM THE FORECAST...NOT
UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH
DISSIPATES AND NO OTHER ENERGY OR SYSTEMS LOOK TO AFFECT THE BRO
CWFA AT THAT TIME. CLOUDINESS PERSISTS OVERHEAD...AND SURFACE WINDS
DON/T APPEAR TO VEER TO OUT OF THE EAST UNTIL MID-DAY...SO FELT BOTH
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WAS WAY TOO WARM REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES.
INDICATED MID 50S FOR HIGHS FOR THIS DAY...COOLER THAN WFO CRP BUT
STILL WITHIN TOLERANCE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BEGIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK 500MB LOW OVER
ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH A RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS/NAM
IS DRIER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE LOWER POPS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
TOWARDS DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500MB/TROUGH
MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION
MONDAY. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS
AROUND 21 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 27 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 9.5 FEET
WITH A PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS AT 02 CST/08 UTC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE
ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE TODAY. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THERE TONIGHT...BUT SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO SEAS. MORE MODERATE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS MONDAY DUE TO THE ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  50  47  56  56 /   0   0   0  50
BROWNSVILLE          51  47  57  57 /   0   0   0  50
HARLINGEN            51  44  56  56 /   0   0   0  50
MCALLEN              52  48  57  55 /   0   0   0  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      52  45  57  53 /   0   0   0  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   51  49  56  56 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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