Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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489
FXUS64 KBRO 292030
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
330 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Current radar and
satellite imagery depict a thin southeasterly-moving line of showers
along a weak surface boundary. A dry line is also evident across the
middle portions of Deep South Texas with dew points ranging from the
upper 60s and low 70s near Brownsville to the upper 30s in the
Ranchlands and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Winds shifted to the north
fairly quickly, which has kept temperatures from exceeding the lower
90s this afternoon. Tonight, a weak cold front associated with low
pressure in the Central Plains will move through the area early
Thursday morning with patchy fog possible along the coast where
moisture may recover ahead of it. Precipitation chances will be
limited, though, with upper level forcing being north of the area
and very shallow moisture available when the front arrives. Have
kept isolated PoPs for the early morning hours.

Behind the front, northerly flow will quickly return with breezy
conditions possible through the afternoon, especially near the coast
and over the marine areas. During the day temperatures will be near
normal for late March with highs ranging from the lower to middle
80s. Winds will diminish by sunset and shift back to the
south/southeast as surface high pressure moves across the northern
Gulf of Mexico, bringing a return of higher dewpoints Friday
morning.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): A deep mid level low will
be spinning over the four corners Fri, moving slowly east and
producing pressure falls over West Texas. This will keep the deep
South Texas wind machine on for the day, and will support warm
weather with high temps in the 90s. An eastward moving front
associated with the system will move across Texas on Saturday,
with stronger weather over East Texas and weaker, derivative
weather over the CWA Saturday afternoon. Upper diffluence may
destabilize the atmosphere upstream over the RGV Plains Sat night
and Sun morning, always a concern for this area, with showers and
thunderstorms indicated in the upcoming forecast. The mid level
trough axis will swing past on Sunday with drier air and upstream
ridging taking over Sunday night.

A mid level short wave trough will follow-up by diving out of the
Pacific Northwest and into the high plains Monday night, and
pressure falls over the plains will help local winds swing rather
quickly back to southeast. The main system will remain farther
north, over the Central Plains, with a cold front pushing into
Central texas, ahead of high pressure over the four corners
Tuesday night. That front may generate a few showers Wednesday
and Wednesday night, but mainly increased cloud cover.


&&

.MARINE (Now through Thursday Night): Winds have diminished this
afternoon across the Lower Texas Coastal Waters with a shift to
the north behind a weak southward-moving surface boundary. Only a
few showers are expected late this afternoon with dry conditions
expected tonight. With strong swells, seas have been much slower
to subside across the far offshore waters (20-60 NM) with a Small
Craft Advisory still in effect. Thursday morning, a weak cold
front will move across the marine areas, bringing isolated showers
or thunderstorms. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed
behind the front with strong northerly winds expected through the
morning.

Friday through Monday: Southeast winds on the Gulf will be
moderate to fresh with elevated seas Friday through Sunday. Winds
and waves may rise above small craft advisory criteria at times. A
front will move into the area on Sunday, shifting winds to north
northwest Sun night, and marginal small craft advisory conditions
may continue on the Gulf into Mon morning. Winds will be less on
the Laguna during the period, though small craft should exercies
caution conditions will be possible at times. Winds will switch
back to mdt southeast quickly, by Monday night, and moderate seas
will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  79  65  87 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          67  83  62  88 /  20  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            65  85  61  91 /  20  10   0   0
MCALLEN              62  85  61  93 /  20   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      61  87  61  96 /  20   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  77  68  83 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ170-175.

&&

$$

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