Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 281127 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...A bit more low level moisture has allowed for some
MVFR cigs to form at KMFE over the past few hours. Do expect
these conditions to linger for a bit before scattering out and
lifting with diurnal mixing. Mid to upper level clouds will
continue as moisture remains in place as another small upper level
disturbance passes through the region today. A spotty shower or
Tstorm will be possible with the seabreeze convection...but
overall confidence to location and timing remains too low to
mention in TAF package.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): Water vapor imagery shows
lingering moisture associated with weak mid level troughing across
the region. Another little wavy ripple of energy will move aloft
today and bring a slight uptick in moisture. However...overall
forcing will be lacking. As such have not made many wholesale
changes to the forecast. Still expecting only isolated precip
chances...mainly over the coastal and nearshore location this
morning...with seabreeze convection during the afternoon inland.
This pattern will continue on Friday as well...however...precip may
become more isolated in nature given that high pressure will be
expanding back into the region.
Temperatures will be generally near the the triple digit mark or at
least with in a degree or two in the upper Valley and western
Ranchlands. However...which locations make above 100 will be greatly
dependent on cloud cover today. with the high pressure coming back
into play...do expect a warming trend for Friday.
LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): The weakness in the
500 mb ridging over the southern portion of the U.S. will fill in
pretty quickly allowing the ridging pattern to strengthen over the
TX coastline this weekend. The 500 mb ridging will continue to
strengthen through the first half of next week allow for a more
subsident regime to prevail over the area through Wednesday. The
overall tropical moisture values will also diminish through the
upcoming longer term period which will limit the conv potential a
bit. However an isolated sea breeze/diurnal heating induced
shower or t-storm can not be ruled out totally. So will maintain
the silent 10 % pops in place through next Wednesday.
The GFS and ECMWF 500 mb fields are in decent agreement showing
the mean ridge axis strengthening over the south central Plains
states. Both models are also trending drier for pops through day
7 with the GFS MEX MOS temps moving more into agreement with the
hotter ECMWF numbers. So will stick closer to the ECMWF numbers
for highs and lows.
Looking into the tropics...The Atlantic Basin is starting to liven
up with NHC tracking a tropical wave over the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Longer range ensemble guidance moves this tropical wave
in a general west/west northwestward direction over the next
several days. Stay tuned to the latest outlooks/forecasts from NHC
on the progress of this tropical feature.
MARINE: (Now through Friday): Early morning Buoy 42020 readings
showing some wave heights near 4 feet this morning and moderate SSE
winds around 18 KNOTS. Do expect this higher winds to continue
through mid morning before generally becoming SE at around 15 KNOTS
or less. AS such will go with SCEC conditions for coastal waters
for the mornings. The surface pressure gradient does not appear to
tighten much today and do expect light to moderate winds continue
through the period...with current 2 to 4 foot seas becoming 1 to 3
Friday night through Monday night: Surface high pressure will
persist over the Gulf of Mex and the western Atlantic through the
rest of this week into the weekend. This will maintain a light to
moderate S-SE surface flow over the lower TX bay and Gulf waters.
Some potential for SCEC conditions will be possible through Monday
but no SCA conditions are expected at this time.
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