Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021654 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1154 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...TYPICAL SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE
TEMPERED THIS AFTERNOON BY DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY END BY 23Z WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ENSUING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFFSHORE WILL MOSTLY KEEP THEIR
DISTANCE...AND SO WILL WAIT FOR THE SEA BREEZE FOR VCSH. LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD ACTIVATE...WITH VCSH
AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VFR WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BUT TEMPO MVFR LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT MFE LATE
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER EAST TEXAS...WITH DRIER AIR...EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS...FOLLOWING THE CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH...WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER LAYER
MOVING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST TODAY. THUS...KEPT POPS
BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED FOR TODAY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWA...AS FORECAST PWAT OF 1.8 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A SEA
BREEZE HINTED AT BY THE HRRR...BUT IT MAY BE WEAK AND NOT ABLE TO
PENETRATE MUCH DEEPER THAN THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PERHAPS INTO THE
MID VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW HEIGHT CENTER APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT CENTERED OFF THE LOWER TX COAST...
BETTER PLACED TO INSTIGATE MARINE CONVECTION THAN HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE COAST AND INLAND. THE NAM GUIDANCE IS ODD MEMBER OUT SHOWING
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY. AT A MINIMUM...MAY SEE A MORE
EFFICIENT SEA BREEZE. OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODELS PROG A
MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS WESTWARD AND WEAKEN
FRIDAY. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS THE TROUGH
DISSIPATES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA FRIDAY THEN MOSTLY CURTAILING POPS TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER WEST UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL HIGH... DECREASED POPS AND CLOUDS AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES REACHING THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WESTERN GULF MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING IN THE PAC NORTHWEST THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...SFC WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK
EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN SPOTS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DOMINATED BY
SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. MEANWHILE...H5
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCING FROM THE GULF WILL
KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ALIVE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST AND
LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. NO SCEC OR SCA ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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