Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261543 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT STUBBORN IN MANY
AREAS THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND
RANCHLANDS BUT ALSO IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
ZONE ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY. A FEW
QUICK MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS...`SPLASH AND DASH`...ARE RISING AND
FALLING IN THE ZONE AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON BEFORE THINGS
SHOULD MIX OUT. NOT ENOUGH TO UPDATE THE GENERAL FORECAST SINCE
IMPACT IS MINIMAL...BARELY WETTING THE GROUND...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO COVER WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.

OF NOTE ALSO IS INCREASING SURF ZONE WAVES NEAR THE JETTY ON SPI
WITH 3 TO 5 FEET IN SPOTS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LONGSHORE AND
EVEN SOME RIP CURRENT HAZARDS...NO STATEMENT SINCE THE CROWDS ARE
GONE FROM THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT WE MAY UPDATE OUR BEACHCAST
AND OTHER INFORMATION TO ACCOUNT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK THIS
AFTERNOON.
52/BSG

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...SWELL PERIOD HAS INCREASED TO 8 SECONDS THIS
MORNING AND AVERAGE COMBINED SEAS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 7 FEET
AT BOTH NOAA BUOY 20 AND A TEXAS AUTOMATED BUOY SYSTEM SITE ABOUT
40 MILES EAST OF SPI...AND THESE HEIGHTS LIKELY CARRY INTO PART
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL. BELIEVE THE INCREASED WAVE ACTION
IS A RESULT OF TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH FETCH CONTINUING TO THE
LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS.

WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT HOLD AT CAUTION /6
FEET/ LEVELS FOR THE UPDATED FORECAST.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MORNING CLOUD DECK HAS SETTLED IN AROUND 1500
FT...WITH SOME LOWERED VIS DUE TO AGRICULTURAL HAZE. CIGS WILL
RISE LATER THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15G20KTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS AND LIGHTER WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A MUCH QUIETER AND CALMER
36 HOUR PERIOD IS IN STORE AS THE H5 TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN US FINALLY FILLS AND EJECTS TO THE NE. H5
RIDGING IS ALREADY BUILDING INTO WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WV IMAGERY. THIS WILL
BRING A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TO THE REGION...PRETTY MUCH
ENDING RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE
DRIER AIR ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE LIMITED BY HUMID SFC
PARCEL. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN DEPTH AND PLACEMENT OF
WEEKEND MID LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY
FLATTENS AND BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NW MEXICO AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT
AS THE LAST SEVERAL WEAKER FORCING AND LESS OVERALL MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL POP CHANCES. GFS/ECMWF MOISTURE
VALUES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT
OR BELOW 850MB WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE 850-500MB. A BLEND OF
THE TWO MODELS KEEP RAIN CHANCES 20-25 PERCENT FRIDAY TROUGH
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS. WIND
PROJECTIONS CONTINUES TO BACK THE WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AS A BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SEABREEZE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IF
THIS LEADS TO AN INCREASE OF THE POPS WITHOUT ANY INDICATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH. BOTH GFS/EC SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH A EASTERN PAC TROPICAL SYSTEM UNSURE IF THIS WILL ADD TO THE
MOISTURE CONTENT BEING SO FAR REMOVED FROM SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
EACH OTHER WITH A TYPICAL BLEND MAINTAINING THE CURRENT SEASONAL
OR NEAR SEASONAL NUMBERS.

MARINE.../NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DEPARTS TO THE NE...SFC GRADIENT LOCALLY IS BECOMING
WEAKER. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND A STEADY 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. SEAS REMAIN AGITATED...REACHING 5 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
DECREASES IN WINDS...FALLING TO AROUND 4 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PRESSURES LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WINDS DIMINISH AND
TURN MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES TO THE
EAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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