Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 290759
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL
LINE IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. THE LINE WILL REACH
THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY AROUND 4 AM AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BY AROUND 8 AM. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE INHERITED
FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS ACCORDINGLY. ONCE THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY
AROUND NOON...AND SOME CLRNG ALONG WITH MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
GET THE LOW CU STREAKS GOING... BUT FORECAST PWAT WILL REMAIN
BELOW 1.5 INCHES AND ANY SEA BREEZE WILL BE WEAK.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT DESCENDING FROM THE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE IT MAY
STALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH LIMITED CAP
AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ALSO FIRE OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ENERGY FOCUSED IN TAIL OF EXITING MID LEVEL TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY
AGAIN RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND STALL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE CWA THEN DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROF WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE WILL BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND A DECENT SEABREEZE SETUP SUNDAY
AND MONDAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE MID LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LEADING
TO MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAKER SEABREEZE IF ANY AT
ALL.

&&

.MARINE /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY/...AN EARLY MORNING SQUALL LINE
WILL RESULT IN MARINE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NOON OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO
30 KTS. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHWEST WATERS AROUND 4
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE LINE. OUTSIDE OF THIS INITIAL DISRUPTION...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  86  78  85  75 /  30  10  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          87  76  88  74 /  20  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            88  76  88  73 /  30  10  20  30
MCALLEN              90  76  90  74 /  20  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      91  75  90  72 /  20  20  30  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  78  82  76 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...BILLINGS



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