Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 061757 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS
NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1300 TO 1500 FEET.
THIS IMPROVES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY TO VFR. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BY MID MORNING ALLOWING FOR BREEZE
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH VFR CONDITION.
MVFR RETURNS TONIGHT AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS WITH
SE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 12 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER
WILL BE INFLUENCE BY THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
LIMITED RAIN...BREEZE SE WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

LATEST KBRO 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWER TO
1.5 INCHES WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE LAYER. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH 500 MB WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS IS SHOWN AS LOW LEVEL JET
EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE S TX COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER
90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...SE WINDS WILL BE BREEZE TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S AND NEAR 80S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH`S TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER
.A SEPARATE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER BERMUDA
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD WEST AND BECOME RE-CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. WITH THESE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN CONTROL WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SIMULTANEOUSLY FALL TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR LESS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LOW WITH MAINLY A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING A BRIEF SHOWER. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AS SE WINDS INCREASE. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
LAGUNA AND GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS WITH ROUGHER SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS
THE INTERACTION WEAKENS...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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