Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 210839
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
339 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
500MB HEIGHT SHOWS STRONG 594DM H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
DOMINATING MOST OF THE DESERT SW AND SOUTH TEXAS WHILE A TROUGH DIGS
SE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD
AND SHIFT NORTH TODAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 599DM OVER SOUTHERN CO
INTO TUESDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS THIS HIGH
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CWA AND THE 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM 22
TO 24 DEG CELSIUS RISING TEMPS TODAY FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATION ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 77. HEAT INDEX OR "FEEL LIKE"
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FEELING BETWEEN 105 TO 110 ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. 1000 TO 500MB RH SHOWS MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING
LESS THAN 54 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA LIMITING ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE BORDER
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE RANCHLAND AREA IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH LESS MOISTURE IN
THE AREA AND HEIGHTS A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 BUT WILL GIVE A BIT OF A BREAK EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 RANGING
FROM 99 TO 95 DEGREES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...IN A WORD: DEPRESSING.
BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES...WITH A ADDITIONAL 500
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. BOTH OF THESE HIGHS WILL PERSIST
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GULF OF MEXICO.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY TO HOLD AROUND 1.5 INCHES
IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGHS...DRY WEATHER AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT. THE ONLY HOPE FOR CHANGE THAT EXISTS IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD IS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW THAT EXISTS OVER LOUISIANA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT GETS STRETCHED AND ABSORBED INTO
A LONGWAVE 500 MB TROUGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED 500 MB HIGHS. IF
THE LOW COULD ACTUALLY HOLD TOGETHER AND RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE
BRO CWFA...SOME PRECIPITATION COULD EXIST FOR THIS REGION. FOR NOW
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 3 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCEC FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE LAGUNA BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS
OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS. AT THIS TIME NO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDED FAR INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE VERY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS LIKELY. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE
LAGUNA MADRE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  95  82  93  79 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          97  80  95  78 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN           100  79  97  78 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN             101  80  99  78 /  10  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 100  79 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  88  80 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66




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