Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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867
FXUS64 KBRO 061849 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1249 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
CONDITIONS OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY CLD FORMATION ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO A LIGHT E-SE
FLOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION USHERING A VERY
DRY AIRMASS. FULL VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS MIDDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRACKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS MOVING
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND A STEADY
EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN.

WE ARE EXPECTING VERY DRY AND MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES. A VERY DRY AIRMASS TO
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AS MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MEAN RH LEVELS OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT UP TO 20K
FEET WILL ALLOW FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON
TO THE LOWEST LEVELS THIS WINTER SEASON. A MODERATELY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO COMBINE WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY ELEVATING THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING.
NO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE DRY AIR
WARMING SUFFICIENTLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OUTSIDE OF
THE FIRE DANGER IT WILL BE A NICE DAY.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TO HELP INITIATE A COLD
NIGHT. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
RANCHLANDS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNRISE WHICH
MIGHT HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS
WHICH ARE ALREADY BELOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS OVERHEAD EARLY THEN TRACKS EAST WITH
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
STARTS OFF COLD WITH A SLOW RECOVERY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE BRING IN A POSSIBLE THICK VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS. WENT
PARTLY CLOUDY AT THIS TIME HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
MORE EXTENSIVE AND THICKER CIRRUS WHICH MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES
LOWER THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST. STILL ABNORMALLY  DRY BUT LIGHTER
WINDS TO CURTAIL ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...QUIET LONG TERM
FORECAST COMING FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND DRAWING IN
MORE DRY AIR. MINIMAL MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
NULLIFY ANY POP CHANCES. NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...ANCHORING DRY AIR IN PLACE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...THE WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS...BUT ALSO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FURTHER INTO THE 80S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST
THIS MORNING USHERS IN STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET HOWEVER HIGHER SEAS LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY...BRINGING A BRISK NORTH WIND IN ITS WAKE. WINDS OF 20
KNOTS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADVISORIES FOR THE MARINE ZONES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE NW
GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO LOWER TO AROUND 10
KNOTS...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR ALL AREAS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS VERY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS COMBINE WITH GUSTY
WINDS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A MODERATE THREAT WITH STRONGER WINDS IN
THE EAST BUT VERY LOW HUMIDITY IN THE WEST. WORSE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM NOON TO 3 PM FOR ALL
AREAS.

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 43 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 71 40 69 51 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 72 39 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 73 39 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 71 36 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 51 66 57 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  43  68  53  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          40  69  51  69 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            39  72  49  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              39  73  50  71 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      36  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   51  66  57  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ248>257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...66



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