Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 252011
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
311 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

RELEVANT FEATURES...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.



REST OF TODAY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION AOA 925MB IS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW SPITS OF RAIN TO FALL FROM THE LOW OVERCAST.
LIMITED MEASURABLE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH LIGHT NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD AROUND 30 MPH. YESTERDAY`S MODEL
OUTPUT HAD THE MOISTURE MOVING IN HOWEVER MEASURABLE RAIN CONTINUED
BE NEGLIGIBLE.



TONIGHT...THE SURGE OF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 30+ KNOTS. PATCHY RAINFALL ALONG WITH FOG AT
TIMES WILL MAKE FOR HUMID DAMP SPRING EVENING. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN RATHER BALMY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LIKELY. RAIN CHANCES
TO REMAIN AT THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH JUST SOME OCCASIONAL WETTING
OF THE GROUND WHICH WILL BE MORE OF NUISANCE.



THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST WITH 100+ KNOTS JET
MAX SWINGING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. COLD FRONT WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR OF THE CWA AT SUNRISE.  STRONG CAP AT 850MB WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY UNTIL THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH BEAR DOWN ON
THE REGION. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA MID LEVEL LAPS TO
STEEPEN BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE CAP SLOW TO
ERODED. THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED IN NATURE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH MOST OF THE STORMS ANTICIPATED
TO BE ELEVATED. A FEW STRONG GUSTS OF WIND AND WITH FREEZING LEVELS
RATHER HIGH ANY HAIL WILL LIKELY BE SMALL.

SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKES PLACE A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEARING 80 DEGREES IN THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY.
TEMPS COULD FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH MAYBE FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 60S BEFORE RECOVERING LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES CURVE DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FALL. A BRISK NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WIND TO MAKE IF FEEL LIKE IN THE 50S AND 60S MOST SPOTS BEFORE
ANY SUN PEAKS THROUGH AT THE END OF THE DAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRY AIR FILTERS WELL
INTO THE WESTERN GULF. DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO CLEAR
OUT THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S FOR
CRISP FEEL BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BY THURSDAY MID MORNING
AND IN THE LOWER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL NO ENHANCE AN
ABUNDANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS SHOWERS BUT AN ISOLATED CHANCE IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AS THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO WARM UP MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH BUT
EXPECT THIS WINDS TO LOWER BY THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.

DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE TOWARDS
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANCE OF SUN.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CA AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE CWA.
SOUTHERN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE... NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND
LOW SEAS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 10 AM
AND 2 PM THURSDAY. INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND MARGINAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WIND AND SEAS ON A LOWERING TREND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA ACROSS THE GULF AND LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULF DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MAINTAINING DRY AND WARM DAYS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  73  58  71 /  20  60  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  78  58  77 /  20  60  10  10
HARLINGEN            68  78  56  77 /  20  60  10  10
MCALLEN              69  77  55  79 /  20  50  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  75  55  79 /  20  50  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   69  72  63  69 /  20  60  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/67



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.