Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 281135
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
635 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Only minor adjustments made to the previous set of
TAFS, mainly for cloud coverage and height. Full VFR will develop
and prevail after sunrise this morning with breezy surface winds
with windy gusts. A slight reduction in wind speeds is expected
for tonight, but breezy winds will continue as surface high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacts with low pressure in
the Central Plains. MVFR ceilings are forecast for tonight in
tandem with the breezy onshore flow.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday):  Closed 500 mb low pressure and
a surface low pressure system will move in tandem out of the Desert
Southwest and into northern Texas during the forecast period. A weak
cold front extending from the surface low pressure system will move
from west to east through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday before becoming stationary
along the Lower Texas Coast late Wednesday afternoon. Despite the
frontal passage, no precipitation is anticipated, and temperatures
will prevail at well above normal levels. Surface winds will near
wind advisory criteria today due to an enhanced pressure gradient,
but no advisory is anticipated to be needed.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500mb low/trough
across Texas panhandle/west TX Wednesday will provide strong
convection across portions of east TX and bring a weak cold front
across the CWA Wed night/Thurs morning providing a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Subsidence will
increase across south TX Thursday from west to east as the upper
level trough across the state moves eastward. A 500mb ridge across
the southern plains Friday will continue to provide subsidence
across the area before a 500mb low/trough moves into the southwest
United States/northern Mexico Saturday. Moisture will increase
across portions of the state Sat night into Sunday and this will
provide a better chance of showers and thunderstorms for the CWA...mainly
across west and southwest TX Sunday and portions of south and
east TX Sun night into Monday...as the upper level low/trough
moves eastward across southwest TX Monday.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 14 knots gusting to around 16 knots with seas slightly
under 5 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Small
Craft Advisories will be in effect for all or portions of the Lower
Texas coastal waters today through tomorrow due to the interaction
between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and low pressure
moving into the Central Plains.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate southeast to
south winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wed night
before a weak cold front moves offshore the lower Texas coast
Thursday morning. Winds will shift to the northwest and increase
in the wake of the front and small craft advisories may be needed
for the offshore waters Thurs morning through Thurs afternoon.
Moderate to strong northwest winds Thursday will diminish Thurs
night and veer to the northeast. Winds will continue to veer to
the southeast and south Friday as surface high pressure across the
western Gulf of Mexico moves eastward. The pressure gradient is
expected to increase across the lower TX coast Saturday with low
pressure deepening across the TX panhandle. Moderate to strong
southeast will prevail across the coastal waters Saturday and
small craft advisories may be needed for the Laguna Madre and
offshore waters.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM
     CDT Wednesday for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.
&&

$$

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