Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 160915
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
415 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday): 500mb subtropical ridge across
the southeast United States and the northern Gulf of Mexico will
provide subsidence across the western Gulf of Mexico and south Texas
today as a 500mb shortwave trough moves across the central plains
this afternoon. Surface low pressure across the southern plains and
surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will provide
a strong pressure gradient across the lower Texas coast today. This
will provide breezy conditions across the CWA today through tonight.
Low to mid level moisture will remain limited across the area today
through Thursday even as an onshore flow continues to bring moisture
at the surface. Will go with persistence for temperatures today
through Thursday as the upper level ridge across the southeast U.S.
and northern Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather
pattern. Heat index values may reach 108 to 112 degrees across the
coastal sections for an hour or two this afternoon so will issue an
SPS for elevated heat index temperatures across the coastal
counties.

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday): Although 500 mb high
pressure, centered anywhere between south Georgia and north Texas,
will dominate over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
through the forecast period, opportunities for precipitation over
most of the Lower Texas coastal waters, and/or along and east of
the Interstate 69E corridor, will periodically present themselves
due to the approach and passage of weak inverted 500 mb troughs
through the BRO CWFA. Well above normal temperatures will persist
due to relatively limited cloud cover and precipitation chances.
&&

.MARINE (Today through Thursday): Seas were near 6 feet with south
to southeast winds near 19 knots at buoy020 early this morning.
Moderate to strong south to southeast winds will prevail across the
coastal waters today as surface low pressure across the southern
plains and surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
provides a strong pressure gradient across the lower Texas coast.
Will word SCEC for the Laguna Madre and offshore waters today but
may need to issue a small craft advisory for the bay waters. The
pressure gradient will remain strong across the western Gulf of
Mexico tonight before weakening on Thursday. Small craft advisories
may be needed for the offshore waters tonight.

Thursday Night through Tuesday: Surface high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico will ease westward as thermal low pressure over
north-central Mexico does the same. This will result in light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas for the Lower Texas
coastal waters through the forecast period. Small Craft Exercise
Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not likely to be needed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  97  82  96  80 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  81  96  79 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            99  80  99  79 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN              99  82 100  80 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  81 103  79 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   92  82  91  82 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Castillo-61
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Hallman-56



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