Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 260004 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
704 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION..Southerly flow will dominate through the period with
weak high pressure moving east along the northern Gulf Coast
tonight. Winds will significantly increase on Sunday as the
surface pressure gradient strengthens due to a storm system moving
through the Southern Plains. Low level moisture will increase
overnight with MVFR cigs expected and some possible brief BR
around daybreak. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions should be noted.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/
SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Zonal flow will continue
locally during the next 36 hours as a fast moving secondary H5
trough sweeps across the central plains. What`s left of a weak
cold front stalled across the northern ranchlands, bringing light
north winds, but drier air remained further north. Southeasterly
flow will reestablish tonight, keeping llvl moisture in place.
Lows will fall into the upper 60s with generally clear skies. As
the trough passes by to the north tomorrow, surface low pressure
reflection will tighten the gradient between it and the large sfc
ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring breezier
conditions, especially right along the coast. Winds are not
expected to reach as high as Thursday and Friday, but will still
approach 20 knot in some locations.
LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): A relatively zonal mid
level pattern will prevail on Monday, but it will become more
amplified through mid week as a sharp mid level trough digs south
over the West and becomes cut off over the four corners area on
Tuesday. The low will move slowly into New Mexico by Wednesday,
with an associated front moving west to east across Texas Tuesday
night, and a destabilizing diffluent mid level flow over North
and Central Texas. Most of the energy will be north of here, but
the front will eventually make its way into South Texas and
through the local area Thursday morning, but rain chances still
look rather meager. The opportunity for rain will be short lived
as dry air will move in quickly late Thursday, ushering in dry
weather and more moderate temperatures for Friday and Saturday.
Wednesday will be warm, with high temperatures in the 90s across
the region as low level winds begin to veer to south ahead of the
Now through Sunday night: Seas have relaxed this afternoon as
winds offshore continue around 10 knots. Another weather system
moving through North Texas and Oklahoma will bring a tighter
gradient for the Northwest Gulf by tomorrow, increasing winds to
15 to 20 knots. Current forecast for tomorrow would require a
small craft advisory for all marine zones, but would only be
needed during the daytime hours before winds decrease Sunday
Monday through Thursday: Stronger winds and higher seas will
prevail Tuesday night through Thursday, particularly offshore.
Southeast winds will be strong Tuesday night through Wednesday
night, with small craft advisory conditions possible on the Gulf,
though less likely or only marginally possible on the Laguna.
Winds will shift to northwest Thursday behind a front, but any
residual small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf will be due
to persistent Gulf swells rather than winds.
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