Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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751
FXUS64 KBRO 231627
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Made a few small changes to the late
morning/afternoon forecast to account for current temp/dewpoint
trends. Clouds have remained well entrenched over the Valley,
keeping readings from warming quickly. However, the clearing line
is across the Northern Ranchlands now, and in a few hours most
locations will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Overall, forecast
is track with a nice afternoon and evening on tap, especially
after the winds come down.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Satellite and radar images as well as surface
observations indicate low to mid level clouds with isolated to
scattered light rain showers across the CWA this morning. Ceilings
were near 2300ft at KPIL to near 5500ft at KHBV. Expect MVFR
conditions to prevail across southeast portions of the CWA
through 18Z before drier air filters into the Rio Grande valley
later this morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail today
through tonight as a 500mb ridge across the central United States
provides subsidence across the area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Satellite and radar images
indicate some elevated convection across portions of the Rio
Grande plains early this morning. This will continue this morning
before drier air aloft moves into the CWA this afternoon as
subsidence increases with northwest flow aloft as a 500mb ridge
builds across the south-central United Stated today. Below normal
temperatures will prevail across the area today through tonight as
drier and slightly cooler air filters into the area this
afternoon. Subsidence will prevail across south Texas Monday even
as a weak 500mb shortwave trough moves across the Big Bend Mon
afternoon. Temperatures will return to near normal Monday as the
surface ridge across the state today moves eastward across the
western Gulf of Mexico Mon afternoon.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday):
Generally zonal flow continues into the latter half of the week as
the next large-scale trough begins to buckle to the west. The flow
will help the dryline make a push into the region each afternoon
through Friday. Areas west of the dryline will see temperatures
soar near to above 100 degrees during the peak heating hours.
Latest model runs show the best day for this push will be
WEdnesday, allowing 100 degree temps to reach near the US 281
corridor. Southeasterly flow continues for most of the area
Thursday into Friday, keeping temps down a couple degrees, but
counteracted by much more humid conditions. Longer range models
continue to show a cold front seeping through sometime during the
weekend. Timing is still an issue, and this has bearing on precip
chances, so have indicated a small chance for showers Saturday and
Sunday until timing becomes better defined.

MARINE:
Today through Monday: Seas were near 6 feet with north winds near
25 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Moderate to strong north
winds will prevail across the coastal waters today as surface high
pressure builds into deep south Texas in the wake of the cold
front that moved through the lower TX coast early this morning.
Will extend SCA for the Laguna Madre through noon and for the
offshore waters through the afternoon. Winds and seas will
diminish late this afternoon into this evening as the pressure
gradient relaxes across the lower TX coast tonight. Light to
moderate northeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of
Mexico tonight and continue to diminish tonight into Monday. Winds
will veer to the southeast Monday as the surface ridge across the
western Gulf moves eastward.

Tuesday through Thursday: Increasing gradient across the
northwest Gulf due to low pressure building across Oklahoma.
Winds will increase to near 20 knots Tuesday, and will continue
into the morning hours Wednesday. This will increase seas to near
6 feet offshore, with choppy waters on the Laguna. Conditions
improve later Wednesday as a dryline moves close to the coast,
relaxing the gradient. Southeast flow continues Thursday, only
reaching 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until noon CDT today for GMZ130-
     132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

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