Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 050005 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...OUTFLOW FROM THE CONV EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
STABILIZED THE ATMS THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
NIGHTTIME LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM
UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL MIX OUT ANY LOW
CEILINGS THAT FORM TOMORROW MORNING TO ALLOW ANOTHER DAY OF VFR
CEILINGS FOR THE RGV AIRPORTS. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE ATMS WILL REMAIN PRETTY STABLE INTO TOMORROW SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY CONV FOR ALL THREE RGV TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED THE WEEKEND ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY IN
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...CONTINUING TO SWEEP QUICKLY NORTHWARD.
ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE OUTFLOW IS STABILIZING QUICKLY...LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. ONCE THE OUTFLOW PASSES...NO OTHER SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL FURTHER
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FURTHER LIMITED...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM THE
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST PUSHING A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON...THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE CONTROLLED BY BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE GULF AND EAST COAST AND A LEE SIDE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FEEDING INTO THE GULF COAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR SETS UP ACROSS THE CWA
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
UPPER VALLEY.

BY MID WEEK...THE GFS AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE ECMWF ARE
DEPICTING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWEST GULF. RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREAS...BUT FOR NOW KEPT POPS FOR THIS
FORCAST SILENT. DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE CWA LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND
TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BUILDS INTO SATURDAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE WHICH TAKES US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY MUCH
THROUGH THE LONG TERM RANGING BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S AND NEAR
80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARINE AREAS...WITH WINDS HOVERING AROUND 15KTS AND SEAS
PINNED IN A 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
PROVIDES LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS...WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS RIGHT AROUND 4 FEET. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ENDING AS
WELL ONCE THE CURRENT BRIEF WAVE SWEEPS ON BY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD...1016 TO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MOST OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND AND
MODERATE SEAS DURING THE LONG TERM. INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE...WILL SPAWN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH COULD
WORK NORTH INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES WITH
SEAS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET...OTHERWISE 3 TO 5 FEET
WILL BE TYPICAL ON THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  91  79  90 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          79  92  79  92 /   0  10  10   0
HARLINGEN            78  94  78  93 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              78  96  78  96 /   0   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  99  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM/GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...59


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