Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 312005
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT FELL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA YESTERDAY...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT TOO TERRIBLY HIGH
WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND WITH THE SATURATED GROUND...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
RANCHLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
PROVIDE LIGHT EAST WINDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX MON AFTERNOON AND WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS MON AFTERNOON AND MOVING
INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN MON NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW WITH NO FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A 500MB RIDGE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO TUESDAY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD AS A 500MB LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ESSENTIALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S AT
THE BEACHES...NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST...AND THE MID 90S FAR WEST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN 70S.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 2 FEET WITH
NORTH WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE  WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS
COAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TX MON AFTERNOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN MON NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST TX.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK RESULTING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 50 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST AGAIN NEAR 52 FEET WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT 55 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES INTO THE
LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2) WAS
NEAR 22 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 23 FEET
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24
FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE THE
LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE BASED ON
THE CURRENT AND CONTINUED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ RESERVOIR IN
MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  87  74  85 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          69  88  71  88 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            68  90  70  89 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              71  92  72  91 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  92  72  94 /  30  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  85  76  83 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ248>250-252-
     253.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM...63
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...65



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