Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 290540
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE GULF OF MX
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS
BUT NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DEBRI CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY OVER MFE AND
HRL TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE REDUCING THE
VISIBILITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHIFTING NORTHEAST
AND EAST INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO WRAP
PERIODIC LOW CLOUDS INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND EXPECT SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENT MVFR TO
PERSIST/DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
FORECASTING VFR FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW
ALTHOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE CLOUD SHIELDS WILL PROBABLY NEED
SOME ADJUSTMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

PLENTIFUL GROUND MOISTURE WILL MAKE GROUND FOG A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

A GRADUAL MID AND LOWER LEVEL DRYING TREND SHOULD HELP CIG/VISBY
IMPROVE ON MONDAY WIHT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON. /68-JGG/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...RAINY PERIOD FINALLY WANING
AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ALOFT. UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH EAST TEXAS...WITH LOCAL WINDS ALOFT
FROM THE NW BRINGING MORE DRY AIR. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 8000 FEET. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...BUT LACK OF
DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP CU VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT LIMITED SO POP
CHANCES PRETTY MUCH DONE. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC
OVERNIGHT...STREAMER SHOWERS GENERALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
LOCAL AREAS OVERNIGHT...LIMITED TO WELL OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES ONLY
IN HIGHER INSTABILITY. GOOD AMOUNTS OF GROUND MOISTURE FOR HEAVY
RAINS RECENTLY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLE AMOUNT OF SFC FOG IN GRASSY
AREAS. TOMORROW...MOISTURE AGAIN REMAINS LIMITED TO AREAS BELOW
10KFT. WITH SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON COUNTERACTED SLIGHTLY
BY CONFINED LLVL MOISTURE...HAVE OPTED FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE FAR WESTERN VALLEY
TODAY. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH NO RAIN
CHANCES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LOWER 48
STATES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE
EAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH TX OVER THE GULF OF MEX. LATER IN THE WEEK
SOME BETTER MOISTURE WILL START RETURNING TO THE REGION FROM
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. MEANWHILE ONE OF THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS APPROACHING FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BETTER MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE AREA TO ALLOW SOME INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR CONV.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE MID PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT DRIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH AND SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. SOME MILD CAA MAY
OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT BUT NO MAJOR COOL DOWNS
EXPECTED AT THE TIME SINCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS PRETTY
QUICKLY EASTWARDS SHUTTING DOWN THE CAA POTENTIAL.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT TODAY FOR
POPS VERSUS YESTERDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IN THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES QUICKER AND DRY OUT THE ATMS FASTER VERSUS THE GFS MEX
MOS. BOTH MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL TEMP
TRENDS THROUGH DAY 7 WITH THE GFS MEX MOS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR BOTH TEMPS
AND POPS THROUGH DAY 7. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER RANGE
WORDING IS A LITTLE LOWER TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO THE
DIFFENCES IN THE MODEL POPS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SEAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RELAX
WITH THE END OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO 4 FEET...AND SHOULD BE 2
TO 3 FEET BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW...LEADING TO MUCH IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING BY TOMORROW MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A FAIRLY WEAK PGF WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS ON TUES WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE S-SE FOR
WED AND THURS. THIS WILL BUILD UP THE WINDS AND SEAS A BIT MORE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE PGF WILL THEN RELAX SOMEWHAT AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN TOWARDS THE REGION SHIFTING THE SURFACE
WINDS AROUND FROM THE EAST. NO SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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