Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 260510
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 02Z WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ABOVE 5000 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT AS THE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ALLOWS A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS SURGE WILL REACH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THURS AFTERNOON INTO THURS EVENING. WILL GO WITH
A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR REACHES
THE CWA. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE THURS NIGHT AS THE
NAM IS WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR LOWS THURS NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EARLY FRIDAY DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH WINDS
FILTERING IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A
COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS ENHACING THE SHOWER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UP NORTH AND
LOW 50S ACROSS THE VALLEY. DURING THE DAY WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY
INTO THE 60S OVER THE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 40S
TOWARDS THE NORTH. INTO WINDS BEGIN TO VEER NORTHEAST AND EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS AND INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST. INTERACTION WITH THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER CA WILL CREATE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT RIGHT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY FRI AFTERNOON.
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN MORE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER ENERGY DIGS SOUTH DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS SOUTHEAST SAT
INTO SUN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR A LOW CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
WINDS PICKING UP WITH DAYTIME MIXING. LATE IN THE PERIOD THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT
WILL POSSIBLY BE ARRIVING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY CAPPING THE VALLEY OF ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND DRY CONDITIONS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 5 FEET WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
RELAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY
BEFORE A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
REACHES THE WESTERN GULF THURS NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE THURS NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURS NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS THURS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DETERIORATED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS ALLOWING FOR STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH TO
DEVELOP. THESE RESULTS IN BUILDING SEAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEAS BEGIN
TO LOWER BY MONDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO LOWER BELOW 5 FEET ALMOST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BEFORE
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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