Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 270617 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
117 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest /06z/ aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...After Monday`s forecast panned out a bit more on the
quiet side, have taken a closer look at the bigger picture for
this morning`s first take at terminal forecasts. That big picture
is just not favorable for anything more than a repeat of what
happened Monday - isolated to scattered showers with perhaps a
rogue thunderstorm but nothing organized to mention anything more
than PROB30 at this time.

The main reason is the position of the upper level features and
deep layer moisture, which is now definitively leaning toward the
open Gulf waters south of Louisiana and east of Houston/Galveston.
This moisture is primarily on the east side of the 500 mb trough
axis and some hints of (weak) 250 mb divergence in the same area.
Down low, wind fields are not optimal, either with light
north/northeast winds developing within the better moisture column
- all a sign that trough is nudging eastward and the more
  unfavorable back side covers the region during the day.

All this said, have cut off any mention of precipitation by mid
to late afternoon (latest at McAllen) and held restrictions at
MVFR visibility/VFR ceiling for now. Outside of any convection,
VFR conditions prevail with light to calm winds becoming
east/northeast with sea breeze enhancement during the afternoon.




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