Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 021747 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1247 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...KBRO RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK OUT OVER SOUTHERN CAMERON
COUNTY AROUND THE BRO AIRPORT. IN THE WEAK SURFACE WIND REGIME
EVIDENT OVER THE AREA SEVERAL WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN GENERATED FROM THESE SHOWERS. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP INTIATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE RGV AIRPORTS. SO WILL INCLUDE A
MENTION OF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS DUE TO THE CONV IN THE
EARLY PORTIONS OF ALL THREE RGV AIRPORTS. WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING LATER TODAY THE CONV POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH
LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLD DECKS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ISOLD CONV
MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE CURRENT TAF
SET AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4200FT AT
KHRL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST AND A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS THIS MORNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS WEAK
500MB INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF MOVES INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS AND
DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES INSTABILITY. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
SEABREEZE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MONDAY BUT WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHED WELL TO THE
NORTH...WITH A DRIER DESERT TYPE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHING ALOFT.
THE ONLY MOISTURE NOTED IS RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE SURFACE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE DAYTIME HOURS
EACH DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR...REACHING 98 TO 106 ACTUAL
DEGREES...WHILE HEAT INDEX READING REACH 106 TO 111.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS TEMPERATURES INLAND SOAR WELL ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WINDS WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE GULF...BUT WILL BE
HELD LOWER BY MARINE STABILITY. CHOP ON THE LAGUNA WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE DURING THE DAY AND BE GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. SEAS
ACROSS THE GULF WILL START AROUND 2 FEET AND BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  94  80  95 /  10  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  95  79  96 /  10  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  98  78 100 /  10  20  10  10
MCALLEN              78 100  80 102 /  10  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77 101  78 103 /  10  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  89  81  91 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...13


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