Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 180545 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1245 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NOW...BUT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVERHEAD IS TAKING HOLD NOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS STARTING TO
PICK UP ON A WEAK ELEVATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO MINIMAL INVERSION
FROM ABOUT 2500 TO 4000 FT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRAP INCOMING
MARINE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE BASE OF THE LAYER
WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING VFR CEILINGS
BACK...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREETS WILL REMAIN. A SIGNIFICANT SEA
BREEZE SEEMS LESS LIKELY OF LATE...WITH LESSER LAND/SEA TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOW LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEGLIGIBLE ACTIVITY ON RADAR.

KBRO 180523Z 1806/1906 14005KT P6SM SKC
     FM181000 16005KT P6SM FEW020
     FM181500 17013G19KT P6SM BKN030
     FM182000 15014G20KT P6SM SCT250

KHRL 180523Z 1806/1906 15005KT P6SM SKC
     FM181000 16006KT P6SM SCT020
     FM181500 18013G19KT P6SM BKN030
     FM181900 16013KT P6SM SCT250

KMFE 180523Z 1806/1906 14006KT P6SM SKC
     FM181500 15009KT P6SM BKN025
     FM181800 15014KT P6SM BKN050
     FM190000 13011KT P6SM BKN250

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF PEAK
HEATING. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS CURRENTLY WILL RELAX WITHIN 2
HOURS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. INVERSION AROUND 2500
FEET WITH DEEPER MOISTURE UNDERNEATH MAY BRING A LLVL CLOUD LAYER
JUST BEFORE DAWN...SETTLING AROUND 1500 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
KICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN BY MIDMORNING...WITH CIGS LIFTING
ABOVE 3000 BY 10AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AS
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE IN FROM THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL NOT OPTIMIZE THE SEA BREEZE AND COULD
FAVOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER KENEDY AND MAYBE BROOKS COUNTY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORS THIS TREND AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT KEEPING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVING INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE
CONTENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES SO ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
AND COULD PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE AT TIMES. WENT WITH A
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 75-80. THURSDAY`S HIGH WILL
BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. LOW TO MID 90S
SHOULD SUFFICE WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE AND BEYOND. DID HOWEVER GO A DEGREE
ABOVE MODEL BLEND. SUMMER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 4 DAYS AT LEAST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND DAILY SEABREEZE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES
KEEPING THEM NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM ODILE
NORTH OF THE CWA...ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY AND 850 TO 700 MB LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
70 PERCENT. CONVECTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE MAINTAINED A
CHANCE OF POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MIDLEVEL RIDGING GETS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED
WEST BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN US. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON MONDAY. PWATS LOWER TO
AROUND 1.8 INCHES AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO FIRE UP...DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING IN. LIGHT TO MODERATE
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW A DAILY SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF 20 TO 30 POPS.

TUESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BUT STALL/WASH OUT THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL LOCATION
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS FOR THE REGION TUESDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS TO
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ON SHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
PASSING OVER THE LAGUNA. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF
PORT MANSFIELD.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINTAINING
LOW SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND A LIGHT TO
MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN AND
AROUND ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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