Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 010929
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
429 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING COURTESY THE LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
DEL RIO...SOUTH OF VICTORIA TO EAST OF TEXARKANA.

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WITH LOW TO VERY
LOW HUMIDITY ABOVE 850 MB. HOT...HAZY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...EXCEPT FOR
THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW TIDAL RUNUP TO DUNES AT AREA BEACHES. THIS IS MOST COMMON
DURING THE MIDDAY TIDE CYCLE AND WILL BE A FACTOR FOR BEACHGOERS
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 3 PM /HIGH TIDE IS 1227 PM/. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT/RIP CURRENT STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL ENERGY
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND
MOVE INTO THE PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN FACT...THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND SUNRISE. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
/SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNDER A
GENERAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY DUE TO LINGER POST-
FRONTAL CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RELATIVELY ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING WITHIN A
WEST-TO-EAST 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
INDEED...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA
IN A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...A MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARBY AND RELATIVELY PALTRY AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...COURTESY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS
AROUND 8 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
5.2 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE GULF. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM EAST
OF PADRE ISLAND. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY AFFECT ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
A GRADUAL DECREASING OF WINDS AND SUBSIDING OF SEAS WILL THEN
OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO AND PERSISTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  77  84  70 /  10  20  40  30
BROWNSVILLE          89  77  85  70 /  10  20  40  30
HARLINGEN            92  77  85  68 /  10  20  40  30
MCALLEN              94  78  82  67 /  10  20  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  77  78  66 /  10  20  50  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   84  77  81  72 /  10  20  40  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BIRCHFIELD-65



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