Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 260557 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...High clouds are expected to overspread the region
from the north and east through the overnight hours as an upper
level disturbance over south Texas moves southwest into Mexico.
Meanwhile...another 500mb inverted trough over the central Gulf
region will move west into the northern Texas coast through the
day Tuesday. There will be chances for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms...however have kept VCSH in for now as
best chances for precip will likely remain north of the TAF sites.
VFR conditions are expected through the morning...however high-
end MRVF cigs will be possible due to more moisture and precip
chances. Gusty southeast winds will develop once again during the
late morning hours and into the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...A few passing low cu clouds along with some high level
cloudiness prevail across the Rio Grande Valley this evening. VFR
conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Low to mid level
moisture will continue to increase tonight and Tuesday as a 500mb
low/inverted trough moves west over the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate southeast winds this evening will gradually become light
later this evening and overnight. Southeast winds will become
moderate by late Tuesday morning with gusts around 20 knots in the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the area on Tuesday. However, due to low
confidence of this activity impacting the airfields, will mention
VCSH at all sites for this TAF cycle.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night): Subsidence continues
across the CWA this afternoon between the 500mb ridge across the
southwest United States and the broad 500mb low/inverted trough
across the Gulf of Mexico. Low to mid level moisture will increase
across the northwest Gulf and portions of south Texas tonight into
Tuesday as the upper level feature moves westward. Subsidence will
diminish across the lower TX coast tonight into Tuesday as a
result and isolated to scattered convection will develop offshore
tonight and inland Tuesday as the outflow from showers and
thunderstorms across the upper TX coast this afternoon provide a
focus for additional convection to develop. In addition...the
seabreeze front Tuesday will also provide a focus for convection
to develop across the lower TX coast early Tues afternoon and
further inland Tues afternoon as the seabreeze front moves
westward. Will continue to mention a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight and chance of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday as a result.

Long Term (Wednesday through Monday):  A strong ridge will remain
positioned over Arizona and over the western North Atlantic while a
weakness in between the respective height centers will be
positioned over Louisiana and will extend north somewhat into the
central plains and south toward the CWA. The weakness will favor
isolated showers for the lower Texas coastal waters for a majority
of the period through Saturday. As the weakness fills and the mid
level ridges merge into one system spanning the entire Gulf Coast
area, somewhat drier weather will develop for the CWA Saturday
night through Monday. However, minor convective activity over the
west Gulf will be almost unavoidable given the anticyclonic
surface circulation pulling moisture up from the south. With no
significant weather feature to focus on during the period, went
with a standard model blend. Day time high temperatures and
overnight low temps will remain near to slightly above normal for
the entire forecast period.

MARINE:
Tonight through Tuesday night...Seas were near 2 feet with south
winds near 8 knots at buoy020 this afternoon. Light to moderate
south winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight with
surface high pressure across the western north Atlantic extending
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will
remain weak across the lower Texas coast Tuesday. Light to
moderate south winds will prevail across the western Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday into Tuesday night as a result.

Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure will reign supreme across
the Gulf the latter half of the week, resulting in more light to
moderate southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas. Isolated
showers will be possible during the period.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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