Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 190954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb low/trough across the
south central United States and west Texas this morning will move
eastward bringing an end to elevated convection across the CWA this
morning except across the coastal sections. Skies will clear from
west to east this afternoon as the winds aloft veer more to the west
and subsidence increase. This will allow temperatures to be warmer
today compared to yesterday especially across the western portions
of the Rio Grande valley and northwest ranchlands as the lack of
cloud cover this afternoon will not inhibit diurnal heating. Clear
skies and light winds tonight will allow patchy fog to develop late
tonight into early Friday morning especially where rainfall has
fallen across the CWA. A weak shortwave trough will move across
southwest TX Friday and some moisture across the coastal sections
will provide a slight chance of showers across the eastern portions
of deep south TX.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Eventful weekend
approaching with near record heat followed by a strong cold front.
Light southwesterly flow will develop Saturday morning, drawing
dry air into the region. Downsloping off the mountains in Mexico
will provide good daytime heating. Shorter range models are
starting to pick up on the potential for significant heat, so have
again nudged temperatures upwards for the day, with highs into at
least the lower 90s. Daily records will fall in a number of
places, with a few areas threatening January single day records as
well. The H5 low and corresponding surface low will be sweeping
across north Texas and Oklahoma into Saturday night. As it passes,
another cold front will race across the region, shifting winds to
the northwest. With northwest winds at all levels, and a 100+ jet
passing, strong northwest winds will arrive with the front and
continue through the day Sunday. GFS continues to be the more
bullish of the main models, bringing surface winds up to 35 knots
during the afternoon. Confidence remains high for a Wind Advisory
for the entire region. Dry air will also move into the region,
which, along with dry and cured grasses, will bring a critical
fire behavior threat. Red Flag Warnings will be needed for the day
Sunday. Northwest winds will decrease Sunday night, leading to a
more tranquil Monday as high pressure settles across Texas.
Tuesday will see a slow return of southeasterly winds as the high
moves east, before a much weaker cold front moves back across
south Texas Wednesday.


Today through Friday: Seas were near 3 feet with east winds near
8 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light north to northwest
winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with weak
surface high pressure across the Texas coastline this afternoon.
Winds will veer to the southeast tonight but remain light as the
weak frontal boundary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico lifts
northward as a weak warm front and dissipates. Light south winds
will prevail across the lower TX coast Friday as a frontal system
develops across the southern plains tonight into Friday.

Saturday through Monday: Marine conditions will remain tranquil on
Saturday with light southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet.
Between midnight and dawn Sunday the next cold front will blast
across the Gulf waters. Winds are forecast to jump to around 30
knots, with significantly higher gusts expected. Seas will
respond, jumping above 11 feet for most of the day Sunday. Gale
warnings are likely Sunday, with any additional advisories not
lasting beyond sunrise Monday.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  64  84  65 /  50  10  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          75  64  85  65 /  50  10  20  10
HARLINGEN            78  62  83  64 /  40  10  20  10
MCALLEN              80  63  85  63 /  30  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  61  85  59 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  65  80  66 /  50  10  20  10




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