Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251954
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
254 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. A 500MB LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSIDENCE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS A RESULT AND CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO TUES NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS A RESULT...AS
LAPSE RATES INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE 500MB LOW/INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MID LEVEL
FEATURE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND TWO INCHES WEDNESDAY
WITH ENHANCED SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES...THE MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS OVERHEAD AND A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT
DIFFERS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THE GFS INDICATES A FASTER TROUGH AND
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION QUICKER THAN THE ECWMF.
LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY INTACT EXCEPT BOOSTED POPS UP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND EXTENDED POPS OUT TO SATURDAY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.

AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
SUPPORT DAILY SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
EACH DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE
BEACHES...MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE UPPER
90S TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY
AND WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 75
TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.MARINE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST GULF TUESDAY INTO TUES NIGHT WILL INFLUENCE
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUES NIGHT. LIGHT EAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN GENERAL TUES NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE
LOWER TX COAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS...MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE...WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE
CAUTION AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  93  79  94 /  20  20  30  30
BROWNSVILLE          78  97  78  96 /  20  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            77  99  78  98 /  20  10  20  30
MCALLEN              78 102  79 101 /  10  10  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      78 103  78 103 /  10  10  30  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  88  80  91 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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