Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 212330 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
530 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Surface high pressure is expected to provide VFR
conditions at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Veering
winds are anticipated as the high moves off towards the east.
Model guidance suggests a slim chance of fog tonight, but with
the atmosphere currently so dry, that is not anticipated at this
time.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Northwest flow aloft
will continue to bring widespread subsidence across South Texas
behind a strong eastward-moving 500mb low pressure system. With
surface RHs ranging from 10-30%, mostly sunny/clear skies and dry
weather will persist, along with dangerous fire weather conditions
through sunset. A Red Flag Warning was issued early this afternoon
for all of Deep South Texas with exception of Coastal Cameron and
Willacy. With sunny skies and very low moisture, temperatures have
soared into the low 90s in many areas with the Brownsville airport
already tying the daily record high temperature as of this writing.

Tonight, earlier indications had possible fog development overnight,
but moisture will likely be too low, despite calm winds and
subsidence. Temperatures Wednesday will likely be nearing record
highs again with sunny skies and mainly light surface winds. Have
adjusted temperatures up a few degrees due to persistence and model
trends.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Weak 500mb ridge axis
moves farther east of the region Thursday morning with the mid
level flow becoming nearly zonal by Friday. Strengthening surface
low pressure across the Plains will support breezy southeast to
south winds winds on Thursday. Very warm to hot conditions will
prevail on Thursday with high temperatures climbing into the 90s,
except along the immediate coast. A weak cold front will approach
Deep South Texas Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday night
will generally fall into the 60s. The dry front is expected to
move through the area on Friday with moderate north winds. High
temperatures Friday will still remain very warm in the wake of the
front. Surface high pressure will surge across the area Friday
night into Saturday. Slightly temperatures arrive Friday night
with overnight low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s across
the west to the lower 60s near the coast. High temperatures on
Saturday will be slightly cooler, mainly in the mid 80s.

Surface high pressure will spread over the area Saturday night and
Sunday with winds shifting to east and then southeast as high
pressure gradually moves east. Rain chances will begin to increase
by Monday as return flow develops ahead of the next storm system
across the Plains. High temperatures will gradually recover on
Monday, into the upper 80s. Mid level zonal flow will continue
through the weekend into early next week.

MARINE (Tonight through Wednesday night): Winds across the Gulf
waters will quickly drop this afternoon and evening, so marine
conditions will improve greatly overnight tonight as surface high
pressure moves overhead. Low seas and light winds will persist
through Thursday morning before winds shift back to the south.

Thursday through Sunday: High pressure across the western Gulf
will support light to moderate south to southeast winds on
Thursday. A strengthening low pressure system across the Plains
will support an uptick local winds Thursday night with small craft
should exercise caution conditions possible. North to northwest
winds develop on Friday with the passage of a weak front. Winds
will increase and become northeast to east on Saturday as high
pressure moves eastward. Adverse marine conditions expected to
develop this weekend as winds increase and seas begin to build.
Winds become southeast on Sunday as high pressure moves farther to
the east.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>255.

GM...None.
&&

$$

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