Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191802 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
102 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Moderate SE winds with VFR sky (afternoon cumulus
field) and visibility conditions expected this afternoon.
Current visible satellite imagery shows an area of enhanced CU
development, associated with sea-breeze convergence, which has
already moved inland past BRO but is only generating spotty, very
light showers, mainly over Kenedy county. Can`t completely rule
out a brief shower affecting HRL over the next hour or two, but
coverage/confidence too low to include in TAF. VFR with light
winds prevails again for much of the night. By the early morning
hours on Thursday, winds go slack as a pre-frontal trough
approaches the RGV. Statistical guidance strongly suggesting periods
of MVFR visibility in mist/haze from about 10-14Z, which is
consistent with the light winds and high dewpoints in place. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop on Thursday afternoon ahead of a
cold front, but should be mainly beyond the TAF period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...SCT cloud deck sweeping across the region this morning
from the southwest as moisture returns to the valley. A few
showers are noted on radar along the immediate coast, but are not
expected to move inland. Daytime CU field will again bubble up
once daytime heating starts, and will continue into the afternoon.
There is a very small chance that a shower or two might briefly
move across local airports, but will not affect any location for
more than a half hour or so. Winds today will rise to around 12
knots, especially behind the seabreeze in the afternoon. Winds
will decrease again overnight at the sfc, but a low level jet may
develop out ahead of an approaching front scheduled for later
Thursday for the valley.




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