Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 181129 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
629 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas this morning. VFR conditions expected for
the next 24 hours. The sea-breeze front may generate some weak
convection around mid-day, but coverage is expected to remain too
isolated for mention for this TAF cycle.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Brownsville radar currently
shows a few showers drifting north across the lower Texas Gulf
waters. Drier air aloft has pushed into the region overnight as seen
on water-vapor satellite imagery. The sea-breeze front may generate
some convection later today but the shower activity will be fairly
isolated. Moisture surges north from the southwest Gulf of Mexico
tonight and Wednesday providing a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along and east of the I-69C corridor on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
through the period. High temperatures today and Wednesday will range
from the low to mid 90s near the coast to the upper 90s to triple
digits across the west. Low temperatures tonight will remain in the
mid to upper 70s to around 80 along the beaches.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Broad 500 mb high
pressure centered over the central United States and extended
over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce dry
weather throughout the entire long term forecast period for the
entire BRO CWFA. The mid-level high pressure ridge will be aided
by a decrease in available atmospheric moisture, with precipitable
water values decreasing and hovering near 1.50 inches.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 17 knots with gusts near 19 knots and seas of 2.3 feet with a
period of 4 seconds at 03 CST/08 UTC. Favorable marine conditions
expected through the period as broad high pressure continues across
the Gulf. Light to moderate south to southeast winds and low to
moderate seas will prevail along the lower Texas coast today through
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times
across the coastal waters through the period.

Wednesday Night through Monday: A gradual increase in winds and
building of seas will occur during the forecast period as high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico begins to interact with low
pressure over the Central Plains and thermal low pressure over
northern Mexico. Small Craft Exercise Caution is possible for the
Laguna Madre Friday through Monday and portions of the adjacent
Gulf of Mexico waters Friday night and Sunday night.




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