Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 271126 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
526 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LARGE UPPER TROUGHS THAT ARE DOMINATING
BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN COASTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THE REGION A FAVORABLE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER HEAD AND IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. SURFACE
RIDGE ALSO SITS ON TOP OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOMORROW.

A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH MILD TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES RANGE 75 TO 80 DEGREES
TODAY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AND WILL DROP OFF
STEADILY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF JUST
YET. TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY DROPPING NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
OF 45 TO 52. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF THE GULF DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS TO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY TAKE A BREAK WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING THIS MOISTURE TRAIN TO GET SHUNTED MORE NORTH PROVIDING
THE RGV WITH MORE SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THURSDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTH TX THURS NIGHT AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FRI MORNING BEFORE STALLING. 500MB LOW/TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CWA SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO TEXAS SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX SUN
MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH WARMER AND MOIST
AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE WESTERN GULF TO MAINTAIN AND LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND MOSTLY SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. SEAS TO REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT TODAY WITH A LOW SEA OF 2 FEET OR LESS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  56  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  56  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            78  52  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              79  54  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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