Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191136 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
536 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite and radar images as well surface
observations indicate elevated convection across the eastern
portions of the CWA this morning. Ceilings were near 1000ft at
KMFE to near 12000ft at KT65. Visibilities were near 3SM with
heavy rain at KPIL. Expect MVFR to near IFR conditions to prevail
across the Rio Grande valley and northern ranchlands this morning
before drier air filters into the CWA this afternoon as a 500mb
low/trough moves through Texas today. Expect VFR conditions to
prevail this afternoon as a result.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Friday): 500mb low/trough across the
south central United States and west Texas this morning will move
eastward bringing an end to elevated convection across the CWA
this morning except across the coastal sections. Skies will clear
from west to east this afternoon as the winds aloft veer more to
the west and subsidence increase. This will allow temperatures to
be warmer today compared to yesterday especially across the
western portions of the Rio Grande valley and northwest ranchlands
as the lack of cloud cover this afternoon will not inhibit
diurnal heating. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow
patchy fog to develop late tonight into early Friday morning
especially where rainfall has fallen across the CWA. A weak
shortwave trough will move across southwest TX Friday and some
moisture across the coastal sections will provide a slight chance
of showers across the eastern portions of deep south TX.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Eventful weekend
approaching with near record heat followed by a strong cold front.
Light southwesterly flow will develop Saturday morning, drawing
dry air into the region. Downsloping off the mountains in Mexico
will provide good daytime heating. Shorter range models are
starting to pick up on the potential for significant heat, so have
again nudged temperatures upwards for the day, with highs into at
least the lower 90s. Daily records will fall in a number of
places, with a few areas threatening January single day records as
well. The H5 low and corresponding surface low will be sweeping
across north Texas and Oklahoma into Saturday night. As it passes,
another cold front will race across the region, shifting winds to
the northwest. With northwest winds at all levels, and a 100+ jet
passing, strong northwest winds will arrive with the front and
continue through the day Sunday. GFS continues to be the more
bullish of the main models, bringing surface winds up to 35 knots
during the afternoon. Confidence remains high for a Wind Advisory
for the entire region. Dry air will also move into the region,
which, along with dry and cured grasses, will bring a critical
fire behavior threat. Red Flag Warnings will be needed for the day
Sunday. Northwest winds will decrease Sunday night, leading to a
more tranquil Monday as high pressure settles across Texas.
Tuesday will see a slow return of southeasterly winds as the high
moves east, before a much weaker cold front moves back across
south Texas Wednesday.

Today through Friday: Seas were near 3 feet with east winds near
8 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light north to northwest
winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with weak
surface high pressure across the Texas coastline this afternoon.
Winds will veer to the southeast tonight but remain light as the
weak frontal boundary across the northwest Gulf of Mexico lifts
northward as a weak warm front and dissipates. Light south winds
will prevail across the lower TX coast Friday as a frontal system
develops across the southern plains tonight into Friday.

Saturday through Monday: Marine conditions will remain tranquil on
Saturday with light southeast winds and seas of 2 to 3 feet.
Between midnight and dawn Sunday the next cold front will blast
across the Gulf waters. Winds are forecast to jump to around 30
knots, with significantly higher gusts expected. Seas will
respond, jumping above 11 feet for most of the day Sunday. Gale
warnings are likely Sunday, with any additional advisories not
lasting beyond sunrise Monday.



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