Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBRO 060832
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
332 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER
WILL BE INFLUENCE BY THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
LIMITED RAIN...BREEZE SE WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES.

LATEST KBRO 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWER TO
1.5 INCHES WITH MUCH MORE DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE LAYER. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH 500 MB WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS IS SHOWN AS LOW LEVEL JET
EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE S TX COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER
90S NEAR THE COAST TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND 950 MB WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE DAY AS GRADIENT
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...SE WINDS WILL BE BREEZE TO WINDY ONCE AGAIN
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 70S AND NEAR 80S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH`S TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER
...A SEPARATE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER BERMUDA
WILL RAPIDLY BUILD WEST AND BECOME RE-CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA OF THE UNITED STATES. WITH THESE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN CONTROL WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SIMULTANEOUSLY FALL TO
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR LESS...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD KEEPING THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
AREA WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES VERY LOW WITH MAINLY A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND PRODUCING A BRIEF SHOWER. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AS SE WINDS INCREASE. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
LAGUNA AND GULF WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS WITH ROUGHER SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS
THE INTERACTION WEAKENS...LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  90  78 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          92  78  91  78 /  10   0  10   0
HARLINGEN            93  78  93  77 /  10   0   0   0
MCALLEN              96  78  96  78 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      98  77  98  77 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  79  87  79 /  10  10  10   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
WX4PPT/MESO...BILLINGS-58



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.