Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251146 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
646 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW to SCT high clouds are making their way across
the horizon this morning due to some weak upper level
disturbances making their way across the northern Gulf waters. VRF
conditoins will prevail...with gusty SE winds expected. There
could be a few seabreeze showers or storms later this
afternoon...however coverage remains to low to warrant mention in
the TAFs. Increased cloud cover and moisture will return late
Monday evening as an upper level low approaches from the east.
This system will bring some rain chances to Deep South Texas just
beyond this TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 441 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): Elongated high pressure ridging
with centers located over the desert Southwest and near the
Carolinas is being disrupted by general inverted troughing over the
northern Gulf Coast states. Weak ripples of energy are moving
through the mean flow causing disorganized clusters of showers over
the Northern Gulf waters. These disturbances won`t have much of an
impact on the expected weather for Deep SOuth Texas...with the
exception of increased high clouds and a bit more added moisture
into the region through much of the day Monday. There still may be
some small chances for convective activity during the afternoon...
mainly associated with the seabreeze.

Much better chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will enter
the forecast Monday night and especially for Tuesday. An upper level
low pressure system off the west coast of Florida will move across
the Gulf today. As it moves closer to the RGV late Monday night...
500 mb winds around the system will generally be from the northwest.
This will allow dryer continental air to initially flow into the
area and may inhibit rainfall creation and have keep POPs generally
low Tuesday morning. As moisture continues to wrap around the
system higher some rain chances will be noted for Tuesday
afternoon. However...the system is expected to drift towards the
Northern Texas Gulf Coast through day Tuesday and this will limit
the overall precipiation chances.

Given the lack of precip and moisture today...do expect hot
condition once again for the RGV...with triple digit value
continuing for many locations. Have knocked temperatures back a few
degrees for Tuesday`s highs given the expected precip.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): An inverted 500 mb
trough will linger over the western Gulf of Mexico and along the
Texas coastline in between two separate 500 ridges of high
pressure, centered over the Desert Southwest and off the coast of
the Carolinas. The weakness in between the ridges will produce
isolated showers for the Lower Texas coastal waters for a majority
of the period from Tuesday night through Saturday. As the weakness
dissipates and the mid-level high pressure systems merge into one
system spanning the entire Gulf Coast area, dry weather will
resume for the entire BRO CWFA Saturday night and Sunday. Daytime
high and overnight low temperatures will persist at above normal
levels throughout the entire forecast period.

MARINE (Today through Tuesday): Light to moderate winds are
expected again for Monday with a slight tightening of the pressure
gradient over the Gulf. However...winds should remain below any
advisory criteria...with possible SCEC conditions for 15 to 20
knot winds for the Laguna Madre. Otherwise...low to moderate seas
can generally be expected through the forecast period with wave
height of 1 to 2 feet today...increasing about a foot for Tuesday.
Convective activity will increaser Monday night into tuesday as a
upper level disturbance moves westward across the Gulf.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: Surface high pressure centered south
of Bermuda will be extended across the Gulf of Mexico to the Lower
Texas Coast throughout the forecast period. Generally moderate
winds and seas are expected for the Lower Texas coastal waters.
Small Craft may need to Exercise Caution Sunday on the Laguna
Madre.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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