Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 220947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
447 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): 500mb high across southwest
Texas and 500mb low across the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast will
provide subsidence across the CWA today. The upper level low across
the upper TX coast tonight will move slowly westward Sunday.
Subsidence will continue across the Rio Grande valley and the
northern ranchlands tonight into Sunday with not much in the way of
rain chances except across the coastal waters. Will continue with
persistence for temperatures today through Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): The beginning of the
long term period will be hot and dry as mid-level ridging over
north Texas dominates the weather pattern. The broad and weak low
pressure area moving into the upper Texas coast will keep
moisture well to our north with subsidence over Deep South Texas
through early Tuesday. Heat Indices may reach 110F on Monday as
moderate southeast flow at the surface continues to transport high
dew points into the region along with hot daytime temperatures.
Winds may also be breezy at times with wind gusts approaching 30

As we near the middle of the week, it gets a little more
challenging, as model discrepancies continue regarding rain
chances. Both the GFS and ECMWF consistently bring deeper
moisture to Deep South Texas Tuesday through Wednesday with a
possible weak, inverted trough developing over northeast Mexico.
The once wetter GFS solution is now backing off considerably on
its northward moisture extent, while the ECMWF wants to bring
near-likely PoPs to at least the eastern half of the area. Haven`t
made major changes to this forecast package, but did slightly
increase PoPs to 30% for the eastern half of the area Tuesday
afternoon. The expected increase in moisture aloft will hopefully
bring some relief to the heat before it cranks back up at the end
of the week as the 500mb high builds into the Southern Plains.


.MARINE: (Today through Sunday): Seas were near 3 feet with south
winds near 18 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Moderate to
strong southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today
with SCEC conditions across the Laguna Madre and the nearshore
waters this afternoon. Winds will continue to increase offshore the
lower Texas coast tonight and small craft advisories may be needed
for the offshore waters. The pressure gradient will remain strong
across the lower TX coast Sunday with SCEC to near SCA conditions
across the coastal waters.

Sunday night through Friday: Surface high pressure over the
northern Gulf and low pressure in the Plains will strengthen the
southeast flow along the lower Texas coastal waters. Winds will
likely range from 15 to 20 kts during the day Monday and Tuesday.
Seas will also build to 4 to 6 feet with Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions being likely. Conditions should improve by mid
week as the surface high moves closer to the western Gulf.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  96  80  96  80 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          94  79  94  79 /  10  10  10   0
HARLINGEN           101  78 101  78 /  10  10  10   0
MCALLEN             103  80 103  80 /  10  10  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     103  79 103  78 /  10  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   91  82  91  82 /  10  10  10   0




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