Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231727
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1227 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Winds have ramped up as expected earlier this morning,
and are now reaching the expected 20 to 25 knot range, with a few
gusts approaching 30kts. Daytime CU field remains SCT, and will
slowly thin through the rest of the day. One line of streamer
clouds has been wavering through the KMFE region, so have added a
TEMPO group for a couple hours for brief lowered cigs. After
sunset, breezy conditions will continue for the region, with
southeast winds remaining 10 to 15 knots. As an area of low
pressure builds in eastern Colorado, gradient will remain tight
across Texas. This will keep windy conditions going again
tomorrow, again reaching 20 to 25 knots with gusts near 30kts
during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 628 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas this morning. Some low cloud decks have
developed overnight across portions of the northern ranchlands but
are not expected to impact valley TAF sites. Daytime heating and
strengthening southeasterly low level flow will maintain good low
level mixing later this morning and afternoon. Winds of 20 to 25
knots with gusts around 30 knots are possible this afternoon.
Southeast winds will gradually diminish to moderate levels after
sunset this evening. VFR conditions expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): Above normal temperatures will
continue through the short-term. Current water vapor imagery shows a
500mb trough over the Great Basin with mid level ridging overhead.
Latest BRO VAD winds indicate southeast winds of 30 knots at 1000
feet.

Surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with
strengthening low pressure across west Texas will support breezy to
windy conditions across the area today. Latest short term guidance
suggests winds may not reach or marginally reach wind advisory
criteria today and VAD winds only show 30 knots of winds up to 2000
feet. Will hold off on the mention of a wind advisory at this time
due to below average confidence. High temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 80s under partly cloudy skies.

The axis of a mid level trough will move over the Four corners
region this evening as 500mb ridging drifts over the Gulf of Mexico.
A front will push into Central Texas tonight as moderate southeast
winds continue locally. Increasing moisture will support some low
and high clouds tonight, especially across the northern ranchlands.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 60s to lower
70s.

A front will move into the Deep South Texas on Friday bringing much
drier airmass into the western half of the CWA Friday afternoon. No
rainfall is expected with this boundary. Friday will be warmer with
high temperatures ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low to
mid 90s across the west.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): Tranquil weather
continues to be anticipated through most of the forecast period
with a nearly zonal 500 mb flow over Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley complemented by high pressure at the surface. The
only opportunity for rainfall during the period may occur on
Wednesday as the zonal flow becomes oriented more out of the
southwest with closed 500 mb low pressure shifting into the Four
Corners area. No cold air surges from cold fronts will result in
well above normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures.

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 16 knots with gusts near 18 knots and seas of 3.3 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. High pressure over the
Gulf and strengthening lower pressure across west Texas will support
moderate to strong southeast winds and building seas today and
tonight. A small craft advisory is in effect 11 am to 7 pm for the
Laguna Madre due to the strong southeast winds. Small craft should
exercise caution conditions expected to prevail on the Gulf waters
today with small craft advisory conditions developing by late this
evening.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Adverse marine conditions, with
Small Craft Advisories, will dominate throughout a majority of
the forecast period courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico interacting with lower pressure over the Central Plains
and northern Mexico. The most favorable period of wind and sea
conditions looks to occur Monday night through Tuesday, as a weak
cold front washes out north of the Lower Texas coastal waters,
briefly weakening the pressure gradient.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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