Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 301803 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
103 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND SHIFT LINE HAS CLEARED THE REGION LEAVING MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND SOME PATCHY CIRRUS IN ITS WAKE. HAZE
REMAINS PESKY NEAR THE COAST BUT EVEN HERE EXPECT SOME VISIBILITY
IMPROVEMENTS...AT LEAST TO LOW VFR (6SM OR MORE)...FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH A QUICK RETURN TO EASTERLY/SEA BREEZE
ENHANCED FLOW ANY CLOUD BASES WILL BE MVFR AT BROWNSVILLE...BUT
LIFT WELL INTO VFR FOR MCALLEN.

FOR TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY TRICKY FORECAST ON TWO FRONTS:
FIRST...TIMING OF THE RETURN OF THE LOWER DECKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW MVFR INITIATION SOMETIME BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z...AND
HAVE SPLIT DIFFERENCE AND GONE WITH 04Z FOR NOW. SOON
AFTER...CEILINGS DESCEND FURTHER AND REACH IFR...WHICH IS A
CONFIDENT FORECAST. GFS-20 SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LIFR (500 FEET)
BUT ELECTED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW WITH JUST ENOUGH EAST SOUTHEAST
MIXING TO KEEP VALUES UP. SECOND...VISIBILITY. ASSUMING WINDS STAY
AT 3-5 KNOTS EXPECT ANY MIX OF HAZE/MIST TO LAND IN THE MID-IFR
LEVEL...2 MILES. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHTER WINDS COMBINED WITH THE
STILL SOUPY AIRMASS AND 1 MILE OR LESS MIST/FOG COULD
RESULT...SOMETHING TO BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECASTS.

CEILING SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY 9-10 AM SUNDAY BUT LIKELY
REMAIN BROKEN UNTIL NOON...DID NOT ADD A 1 HOUR GROUP BUT AGAIN
NEXT FORECAST CAN HANDLE. WINDS PICK UP A HAIR BUT NOTHING TOO
CRAZY FOR THE MORNING HOURS...AND HAZE/MIST SHOULD HANG ON FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING.
52/BSG

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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