Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161933
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
233 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Ridging over south Texas and
the northwest Gulf of Mexico along with surface high pressure across
the region will lead to relatively quiet weather in the short term.
Winds will remain light to moderate from the east to southeast with
temperatures a skosh above normal. Lows will be in the mid 70s, with
highs from the lower 90s east to near the century mark west, with
mid to upper 80s at the beaches. Moisture will spread slowly north
from the southwest Gulf on the anticyclonic pattern, supporting
increasing shower activity mainly over the marine areas, but with
isolated coastal activity as well. Forecast precipitable water
values will ramp up from a quarter of an inch this morning to an
inch and a half Sunday morning to an inch and three quarters Sunday
evening. Look for mainly scattered low clouds, with upper moisture
from the eastern Pacific still being channeled from southwest to
northeast over west and north Texas.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): a 700mb low across southwest
Texas and a 700mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico will provide a
southerly low to mid level flow across the CWA Monday. Low to mid
level moisture across northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande valley
will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms...mainly across
the coastal sections...on Monday. A more southwesterly flow aloft
across deep south TX Tuesday will inhibit rain chances except
across the coastal waters. In addition...500mb ridge across
northeast Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday will provide increasing
subsidence across the area with isolated showers and thunderstorms
confined well offshore the lower TX coast Wednesday. The upper
level ridge of high pressure begins to shift slightly eastward
Thursday as a couple of weak upper level impulses move across
northern Mexico into southwest TX through the rest of the forecast
period. At 700mb...a southeast flow will prevail across the Rio
Grande valley and northern ranchlands Thursday through Saturday.
This should allow afternoon seabreeze convection to develop
across the coastal sections of the CWA through the rest of the
forecast period.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Sunday night): High pressure over the Gulf will
maintain light to moderate onshore winds and low to moderate seas
through Sunday night. A few showers may develop along the coast from
time to time.

Monday through Thursday...Light southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Monday with surface high pressure across
the northern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will remain
weak across the western Gulf of Mexico Tuesday before increasing
slightly Wednesday. Light southeast winds Tuesday will become
light to moderate Wednesday and remain light to moderate from the
southeast on Thursday.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  88  78  91 /  10  10  10  30
BROWNSVILLE          76  91  77  93 /  10  10  10  30
HARLINGEN            75  93  76  95 /  10  10  10  30
MCALLEN              76  95  77  98 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  97  77 100 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  86  79  87 /  10  20  20  30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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