Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221054
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
554 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY RETURN TOMORROW JUST FOR A FEW
HOURS CLEARING OUT BEFORE SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS APPROACHING 600
DM OVER COLORADO AND EXPANDING INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS
RIDGE BECOMES MORE ELONGATED EAST TO WEST FROM COLORADO INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK WAVE TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MORE ON THE DISTURBANCE AND ITS POTENTIAL FUTURE IN THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH PWATS VALUE IN THE LAST KBRO SOUNDING
REMAINING IN THE LOW 1.35 INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THE SAME TREND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 103 WEST OF HIGHWAY
77 AND IN THE UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST. THERMAL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN AND INTERACT WITH HIGH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
EXPECT THIS WINDS TO DIMINISH A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. WEDNESDAY...
AS THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES CLOSER TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTENT SHIFTS WEST
ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. INTRODUCE SILENT
10 TO 20 PERCENT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE RANGING FROM 101 TO 103
DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH HEAT INDEX OR "FEEL LIKE" TEMPS BETWEEN 105
TO 108. THE WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE AS MUCH INTO WEDNESDAY REMAINING
MODERATE FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND GRADUALLY LOWERING IN THE EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HOPE EXISTS AFTER ALL.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE NARROW COASTLINE OF ALABAMA. THE EUROPEAN...
NAM...AND (TO A LESSER EXTENT) THE GFS ALL PROG THIS 500 MB LOW TO
RETROGRADE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BASE OF A 500 MB RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WITH MODELS SHOWING THE LOW
TRACKING ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE AND THEN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...HAVE OPTED TO TAKE INHERITED DRY WEATHER
FROM THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE
ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE NIGHT AND INLAND ACTIVITY MOST
LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE SHOULD BE AVAILABLE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. UNFORTUNATELY...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO MEXICO...OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL END...AND DRY WEATHER WILL REIGN FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IT/S A NARROW WINDOW OF RAINFALL...BUT IT/S
SOMETHING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGE BEING HOW MUCH
WILL THEY BE INFLUENCED DAILY AND NIGHTLY BY CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.

MARINE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 3 FEET WITH MODERATE
WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCEC FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE LAGUNA BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH SEAS
REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET WITH A WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE WATERS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY AS BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH THERMAL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE
SEAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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