Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 241949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...GULF MOISTURE TO
BE ON THE STEADY INCREASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. RELEVANT
FEATURES TO REMAIN NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH ANY IMPACTS
MINIMAL OUT SIDE OF HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. MEAN RH
BELOW 5000 FEET WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AND 80 TO 90 PERCENT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE STEADY
INCREASE IS DUE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW TO INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW WINDY
LEVELS AS THE GRADIENT IS SOMEWHAT WEAK WITH LIMITED HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE GULF. LOW LEVEL INVERSION DOES STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST 850 TO 700MB. THIS
WILL SET UP A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS BREAK UP
THE STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OTHERS KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN ALL DAY WITH THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GOING
FORECAST TRENDS ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY SIDE. TEMPERATURES TRENDS ARE
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND OVERNIGHT STRATUS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S TONIGHT AND MID 60S
TO NEAR 70 THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A WARMER GFS. AS
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FOR SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS WITH LOW TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND MID 70S ALONG THE COAST
LINE.

.LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS BY THURSDAY MID MORNING
AND IN THE LOWER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LINE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD THE FRONT INCREASING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL NO ENHANCE AN
ABUNDANCE OF THUNDER WITH THIS SHOWERS BUT AN ISOLATED CHANCE IS
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AS THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO WARM UP MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH BUT
EXPECT THIS WINDS TO LOWER BY THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA.

DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE TOWARDS
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANCE OF SUN.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT AS IT MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CA AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE CWA.
SOUTHERN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF AND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS LIGHT AND LOW RESPECTIVELY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHER
PLAINS WED NIGHT INCREASING THE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOWING SEAS TO
BUILD.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA ACROSS THE GULF AND LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULF DURING THAT TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK MAINTAINING DRY AND WARM DAYS WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  79  68  72 /   0   0  10  50
BROWNSVILLE          65  80  69  76 /   0   0  10  50
HARLINGEN            64  82  68  75 /   0   0  10  50
MCALLEN              65  84  70  77 /   0   0  10  60
RIO GRANDE CITY      64  86  69  77 /   0   0  10  60
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  76  68  71 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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