


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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439 FXUS64 KBRO 081123 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure currently over the central Gulf of America will gradually retrograde into Mexico during the period. This weakness, combined with precipitable water values that will hover near two inches, will result in isolated to scattered convection across the BRO CWFA. The likely scenario will be streamer convection over the lower Texas coastal waters at night, followed by showers and thunderstorms that will develop inland during the heating of the day and gradually migrate from east to west. Temperature-wise, the opportunity for rainfall and the associated cloud cover will hold daytime highs at near normal levels. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 With the above-mentioned 500 mb weakness inland over Mexico (eventually transitioning over the Pacific Ocean), and mid-level high pressure nosing into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley from the east, generally dry weather will prevail through the period. However, one issue that may reintroduce convection into this portion of the total forecast at a later time will be precipitable water values, which never significantly fall too far below two inches. Regarding temperatures, near normal daytime highs will be maintained, with the 500 mb high in proximity to the region but not overly oppressive. Despite relatively ample atmospheric moisture, these values will not support any threat of a Heat Advisory. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Some incoming clouds from the NE could cause ceilings to drop to MVFR/IFR over the next few hours at all airports. Otherwise, conditions are expected to be VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds should be southeasterly and could become gusty around 18z. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms today, which could temporarily deteriorate conditions in the immediate vicinity of any showers or thunderstorms that happen to develop. && .MARINE... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 High pressure over the western Gulf of America will produce light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed. (Thursday through next Tuesday) High pressure over the western Gulf of America will interact with thermal low pressure that will strengthen and persist over inland Mexico. This will produce generally moderate winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast during the period. Although Small Craft Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Should Exercise cannot be entirely ruled out due to winds, especially for the Laguna Madre. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 78 92 78 / 30 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 94 75 94 76 / 20 10 20 0 MCALLEN 95 78 96 78 / 30 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 76 96 76 / 10 10 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 87 79 / 20 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...55-MM