000
FXUS64 KBRO 011001
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
401 AM CST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH TEXAS REGION PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A S TO SE
FLOW PROVIDING A FAVORABLE OVERRUNNING EFFECT WITH A BKN TO OVC
CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL GIVE A REPEAT TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TODAY KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH LIGHT SE WINDS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MID AND LOWER VALLEY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
DIMINISHING QUICKLY BY MID DAY.

A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE A SMALL
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ERODING THE RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALLOWING A GOOD CHANCE OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ACROSS THE CWA. THE SE
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
BUT THE OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
HEATING. NO CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEEN PULL TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LEFT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER THE GULF WATERS MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...ZONAL FLOW WILL START
TO BUCKLE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE H5 RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...WHILE THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE ROCKIES.
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS. RAINFALL
HEAT WILL BE LIMITED TO LATE NIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE IS THE PENDING ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT ARCTIC OUTBREAK
INTO TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE SHALLOW COLD POOL ACROSS
TEXAS AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
BRINGING FORWARD THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
BROUGHT THE FRONT FORWARD TO NEAR DAWN FRIDAY...WITH AREAS NORTH
OF THE VALLEY EXPERIENCING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY...BUT
AREAS IN THE LOWER VALLEY GETTING SOME EARLY MORNING HEATING
BEFORE THE POLAR EXPRESS RUMBLES THROUGH. WITH THIS FRONT WILL
COME ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DZ FOR THE REGION. POP
CHANCES ARE GETTING MORE CONFIDENT...WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL
LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THE COLD
HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STARTING
TO INDICATE THAT A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR MAY SWEEP INTO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
TEXAS KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS TODAY WITH LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
RIDGE WILL ERODE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY VEERING WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
SEAS REMAINING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE
MIDWEEK WILL REACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL KICK SEAS UP TO 4 TO
5 FEET IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SOME 6 FOOT OBSERVATIONS
POSSIBLE. ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT MARINERS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO OBSERVE ADDED CAUTION ON THESE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  75  62  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  60  79  64 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  60  80  62 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              77  61  81  63 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  58  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  63  76  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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