Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261746 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1246 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...A weak disturbance over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico
remains nearly stationary with associated rain and embedded
convection noted well north of Deep South Texas and the regional
airports. An increase in mid and high level moisture to keep a
general high bkn-ovc conditions with vfr conditions prevailing
with only few-sct lower clouds. Rain chances remain low with the
best opportunity for convection northwest of KMFE this afternoon
into the early evening. Confidence is medium to high for no rain
to impact the air terminals this afternoon. Southerly winds with
gusts of 20-25 knots will be slow to lower this evening but should
drop to 10 knots or less before midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Increasing moisture is evident in water vapor imagery
this morning as an upper level low moves steadily westward across the
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. An increase of high clouds will be
noted...as well as a bit thicker CU field. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible...but confidence of
coverage remains low and have opted to stick with vicinity
wording. While VFR conditions are generally expected...a very
brief MVFR cig maybe be noted through the early this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The H5 inverted trough over
the Gulf of Mexico will continue advancing westward through the day
before getting generally washed out somewhere over the northern TX
or LA Gulf coast. While the overall better precip chances will
remain north of Deep South TX...an increasing moisture field and
better overall broad ascent will allow for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the next two days.
However...with the better moisture and energy now likely farther
north...have cut back on POPs and expected rainfall amount. The best
chances for any precip will remain across the Ranchlands...with
smaller chances along the RGV. Even smaller precip chances are
expected on Wednesday due to some linger moisture...however high
pressure will quickly return to shut off the tap. The increased
moisture and clouds for today may help hold temperatures down a
degree...however values will begin to rebound on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500 mb troughiness
will persist over the western Gulf of Mexico and the Lower Texas
coastal waters in between 500 mb high pressure centered over the
Desert Southwest and off the coast of the Carolinas. Isolated
showers, mainly over the BRO CWFA marine areas of responsibility,
are forecast from Thursday night through Saturday in response to
the troughiness, with another shot of precipitation on Monday
produced by the approach of an inverted 500 mb trough from the
east. Limited cloud cover and precipitation chances will ensure
continued well above normal daytime high and overnight low
temperatures.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday): An upper level system will
bring scattered showers and some possible thunderstorms to the
local waters Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Broad high pressure
over the Gulf will remain in place...although a slight tighten of
the pressure gradient today could bring some higher SE wind gusts
of around 15 to maybe 20 knots for the Laguna Madre. Winds will
generally be light to moderate...however a longer southerly fetch
will develop over the two days. Expect more moderate seas to
develop with wave heights to increase from 1 to 3 feet on Tuesday
to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday into Wednesday...with some 5 feet swells
possible.

Wednesday Night through Monday: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will produce generally moderate winds and seas for the
Lower Texas coastal waters during the entire forecast period.
Although Small Craft Advisories are not likely to be needed,
Small Craft may need to Exercise Caution for the Laguna Madre
on Sunday and for portions of the Gulf of Mexico waters on
Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  81  96  82 /  20  20  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          96  79  96  81 /  20  20  20   0
HARLINGEN            98  79 100  80 /  20  20  20   0
MCALLEN             101  79 101  80 /  20  20  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 103  80 /  20  20  20   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  82  90  83 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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