Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251129 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
629 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...A VCSH has been added to the BRO and HRL aerodromes
for the next few hours due to the possibility of streamer showers
passing overhead from off the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise,
VFR is expected today with an afternoon period of showers and
thunderstorms. MVFR is possible tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Monday): The KBRO upper air sounding from
Saturday evening indicated a precipitable water value just shy of 2
inches. This deeper tropical moisture is expected to continue within
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the forecast
period as a weakness in the middle layers of the atmosphere persists
nearby over the western Gulf of Mexico. Combined with daytime
heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for today
and tomorrow, with streamer convection over the adjacent coastal
waters and immediate inland areas tonight. With increased cloud
coverage and the scattered convection, temperatures will prevail at
near normal levels.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): Abundant moisture
with precipitable water values forecast between 1.8 to 2.10 inches
will prevail across Deep South Texas through most of the period.
The combination of the weakness aloft and abundant moisture will
support a chance of showers and thunderstorms through late week.
Some of this activity will be diurnally driven sea breeze
convection, but higher moisture moving north along the from the
southwest Gulf will provide late night and early morning
convection. Surface high pressure across the middle Tennessee
River valley will keep winds northeast to east Monday night into
Tuesday. Winds will veer to the southeast by Tuesday night as
surface high pressure moves farther east. Near normal temperatures
expected to continue through mid week due to the increase in
cloud cover and rain chances. Above normal temperatures are
expected late week into the first half of the weekend as high
pressure build across the area and rain chances are confined
closer to the coast.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Buoy 42020 reported east winds around
8 knots gusting to around 12 knots with seas slightly under 4 feet
with a period of 7 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Light to moderate winds
and moderate seas will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast with weak
high pressure in place over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft
Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be
needed during the forecast period.

Monday Night through Thursday Night: Light to moderate east winds
initially will become southeast by Tuesday night as high pressure
builds across the Gulf. Low to moderate seas will prevail through
the period. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed
across portions of the lower Texas coastal waters by late week as
winds increase and seas build as the pressure gradient tightens.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times across the
lower Texas coast waters through the period.



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