Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230435 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1035 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions to prevail tonight and Tuesday with a
light northeast-east wind. High clouds, broken to overcast at
times, are expected to lower and thicken by the end of the day and
may dip below 10k feet shortly after sunset and could lower to
around 5k feet by or shortly after midnight. A few sprinkles of
rain are possible when ceilings lower.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 820 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...Subtropical jet extending well over the Pacific and
overspreading Mexico and South Texas looks to maintain its
integrity and the thicker cirrus deck overnight. A patch of
cumulus that passed across the mid-valley earlier is moving across
the Lower valley and should push offshore as surface high
pressure continues to edge southward. There may be some thinning
of the cirrus ovenight and Tuesday morning but with a broad trough
over the Pacific the streaming high clouds will likely dim
Tuesday sunshine at times and may even thicken more than expected.
This may affect low temperatures tonight and highs on Tuesday but
will let forecast ride due to low confidence if temperatures will
vary more then 3 degrees from current forecast. Have adjusted the
cloud coverage and a new set of zones will be issued as a result.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 550 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Strong upper jet will continue to spread multi-layered
clouds through the evening hours with gradually thinning high
clouds overnight and Tuesday. VFR conditions to prevail through
tomorrow while NNW winds diminish this evening remaining light NE

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tonight, the arrival
of drier air and thinning high clouds behind a Monday morning
cold front will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Slightly cooler weather will continue on Tuesday, with
high temps from the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Mostly sunny
skies and light northeast winds will prevail. Though surface high
pressure will support northeast low level flow Tuesday night,
moisture just above the boundary layer returning from the south
will surge quickly back into the area, increasing cloud cover and
supporting a chance of rain mainly for sections of the southern
Gulf and the southeast corner of the CWA, including Cameron and
portions of Willacy and Hidalgo Counties. Rain amounts should be
light, measuring in the hundredths of inches.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Southwest flow aloft will
continue through the remainder of the week as a trough extends
southward from the Four Corners region. This will continue to toss
minor impulses across south Texas. At the sfc, high pressure to
the north will be moving east, allowing winds to shift back from
the southeast, tapping increasing Gulf moisture. This added
moisture and instability aloft will bring a small chance for
showers, for the lower Valley into Wednesday morning, and areawide
again Thursday. Accumulations will remain light. The next front
dives into Texas Friday, arriving in Deep South Texas on Saturday.
Instability along and ahead of the front will bring a continued
chance for showers. Drier high pressure will move across the
region for the latter half of the weekend into early next week,
with an end to any rain chances and high temps back to the 60s.

Now through Tuesday night: High pressure will spread over the
Gulf, and moderate northeast winds will prevail, supporting
moderate seas.

Wednesday through Friday: The high pressure will be moving to the
east across the southeastern US, with Winds gradually shifting
from northeast to southeast through the period. Winds will remain
10 to 15 knots through the period, which will continue to push
swells up to near 5 feet across the Gulf. Increasing moisture and
passing impulses aloft will help spark a few showers here and
there through the period, but rainfall will be isolated in nature.

FIRE WEATHER: Depressed relative humidity values, as low as the
teens, will redevelop on Tuesday afternoon, mainly across inland
areas, but winds at 20 feet will be less than 15 mph. Thus, while
critical fire weather parameters likely will not be exceeded, some
erratic wildfire behavior will be possible, including better growth
and spread potential.




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