000
FXUS64 KBRO 130616 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1216 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MVFR
CIGS /AOA 2500 FEET/ STREAMING IN BOTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FROM TAMAULIPAS STATE IN NORTHERN MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS AT KBRO AND
KHRL SHOW SCT-BKN AT 2500 FEET WITH ANOTHER DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
5000 FEET. SHORT TERM MODELS AND POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE MVFR
CIGS WILL EXPAND INTO THE KMFE TERMINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS
WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD MID DAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS INCREASING
AND BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET
BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS CURRENTLY WITH A FEW PEAKS OF THE SUN WILL
GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 35-40 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING WITH
PLACEMENT WEST OF KMFE AND WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOW LEVEL
WINDS FOR WIND SHEAR CONDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS WILL RETURN LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
BECOMING GUSTY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH THE COLD AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AND FINALLY PROVIDE SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO FRI NIGHT WITH THE SUN MAKING
APPEARANCE ON FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
SECTIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. ELEVATED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRI NIGHT AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST TEMPS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TRANSITIONING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOCAL INTO AN UPPER WAVE
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY WITH A LARGER UPPER TROUGH
SWINGING THROUGH THE LONE STAR STATE SUNDAY. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
DRIVES A FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SIMILAR TIMING AS THE LAST FEW FORECAST PERIODS...AROUND SUNRISE
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE UPSTREAM DEEPER TROUGH PUSHES A STRONGER SURGE
OF NORTHERLY WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE INTO WESTERN TEXAS. WITH THE STRONGER SECOND SURGE
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 4 TO 6 HOURS LATER HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND WITH ANY COOLING TO TAKE PLACE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ARE
DIMINISHING AS THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER WANES. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HAD LIMITED THUNDER TO THE GULF WATERS AND WILL LEAVE IT AS IS
FOR ANOTHER RUN. BETTER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT IS MORE EFFICIENT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE WANING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NE. SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE LIFT WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY WEAK UPPER SUPPORT
THAT EXTENDS THIS FAR SOUTH. FORECAST TRENDED WITH LOW POPS
SATURDAY MORNING AND TAPERING OFF QUICKER FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

ONCE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRACKS EAST OF THE REGION MODERATELY
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
WEATHER ENSUES. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE SATURDAY WITH CLEAR TO
SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ARE A BIT TRICKY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BATTLE WITH
THE LOW ANGLE SUNSHINE/10 DAYS FROM THE WINTER SOLSTICE/AND COOL
SOILS...NO SUNSHINE FOR A WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPS DROP
SIGNIFICANT BUT STRONGER WINDS TO LIMIT MAXIMUM COOLING AFFECTS.
SUNDAY HIGHS STILL RATHER COOL AND AS MENTIONED WILL BE A BATTLE
WITH GOING FORECAST A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COLDEST
OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO LEAN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
NEARING FREEZING UP NORTH AND MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE
VALLEY. IF WINDS DROP TO CALM LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AND
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING CONDITIONS IN
THE UPPER AND MID VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AND
A WARMING TREND BEGINS. SOME CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BUT OVERALL VERY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. JUST A BRIEF DECEMBER THAW TO GET LAST MINUTE SHOPPING
DONE.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE FRIDAY AS
THE COASTAL TROUGH RETREATS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD. MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOWER TX COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS TURN NORTH AND GRADUALLY INCREASE PEAKING AROUND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A 6 TO 9 HOUR
WINDOW OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. LOW CONFIDENCE AND STILL 48 HOURS AWAY
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEFORE ISSUING A GALE WATCH. IN ANY
CASE...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGIN SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY WITH MUCH IMPROVED
CONDITIONS AND EVENTUAL VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  51  71  64  70 /  20  20  20  30
BROWNSVILLE          50  73  64  70 /  20  20  20  30
HARLINGEN            49  73  61  69 /  20  20  10  30
MCALLEN              47  72  62  70 /  20  20  10  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      47  71  58  68 /  10  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   53  69  66  71 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...68