Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 241818 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
118 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER THE LARGE CONV COMPLEX MOVED THROUGH THE RGV
EARLY THIS MORNING RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR WAS LEFT BEHIND IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORMS OVER THE RGV AIRPORTS. THIS WILL LIMIT CONV
REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. KBRO RADAR IS SHOWING
SOME SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT WEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO WHERE LAPS DATA IS SHOWING SOME BETTER CAPE VALUES. THE BIG
QUESTION REMAINS IS IF/WHEN WILL THE NEXT ROUND OF CONV FIRE NEAR
THE RGV AIRPORTS. BELIEVE THAT BECAUSE OF THE FAIRLY STABLE NATURE
OF THE ATMS AT THIS TIME ANY CONV INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED A BIT
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING WHEN THE BETTER 500 MB
DYNAMICS ARRIVE CLOSER TO SOUTHERN TX. SO WILL GO WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL TEND TOWARDS MVFR
LATER IN THE FORECAST. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS
FOR CONV IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION COVERED MOST
OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR 4500FT AT KHRL TO NEAR 10000FT AT
KT65. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 4SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KBRO TO NEAR
5SM WITH RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.
LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ACROSS CAMERON
COUNTY...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE AND INTO THE GULF
WATERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING BACK TO STARR COUNTY.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON COUNTY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS
FALLEN OVER THE CITY OF BROWNSVILLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH NOON TODAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH 7 AM AND ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AFTER THIS
CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY LATE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
WEST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 70S.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/09 UTC.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ALONG FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TIGHT PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE BAY
AND GULF CONDITIONS CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS RESULTING IN MODERATE WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  88  81  87 /  50  50  50  30
BROWNSVILLE          80  89  80  88 /  40  50  50  30
HARLINGEN            79  90  79  90 /  40  60  50  30
MCALLEN              79  91  80  90 /  40  50  50  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  91  77  90 /  40  40  50  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  81  85 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...65



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