Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 230528 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1228 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail across the CWA with only a few
passing low CU at the station, and light south southeast winds.
Isolated marine showers are present again tonight on radar, but
are a bit less pronounced than last night, and the HRRR suggests
that any activity will remain predominantly marine based. Plentiful
low level moisture will continue along the coast, however, with
PWAT forecast to be around 2.0 inches at BRO Saturday around mid
day. Guidance suggests a mid to late morning sea breeze activation
with winds veering a bit and becoming mdt and gusty. The breeze
will progress slowly west through the afternoon before reaching
the mid valley. Guidance is not bullish on significant PoP, and
have therefore not included any explicitly in this TAF set, but
it will be hard to avoid a few showers around the area, which will
necessarily be hit and miss and could result in brief lowering of
ceilings and moderate downpours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.
However, some brief MVFR ceilings are possible mid to late
Saturday morning due to the sea-breeze. Light winds this evening
and overnight will become moderate by late Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 257 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night): North-south oriented band
of showers (with a few embedded lightning strikes south of the
Border) associated with the sea-breeze front is progressing inland
across the souther tier of counties at this time.  Bumped up PoP`s
to mentionable values across Hidalgo and Starr counties for the
remainder of the afternoon to account for this.  All should quiet
down after sunset.

"Steady as she goes" an apt description of the short-term forecast.
Dominant southern CONUS upper-level high center has begun to
retrograde somewhat to the TX/OK Panhandle region.  Little change in
500-mb heights, nor lower-mid level moisture/precipitable water over
the next 36 hours, so no reason to really fight persistence.
Nighttime and daytime temps should follow the trend of recent days.
Heat indices expected to reach the 103-108 range again on Saturday.

Rain chances a little more tricky, but really just splitting hairs
on varieties of isolated chances.  Showery convection will tend to
occur over offshore late at night into the early morning.  Surface
winds will veer from east today to more southeast and strengthen
just a bit on Friday as high pressure reorients slightly. This
should act to temper the sea-breeze effect vs. today so have trimmed
PoP`s a bit accordingly but will still be mentionable across the
lower and mid-RGV.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday): An elongated 500mb ridge
across the southern United States Sunday will allow a couple of
weak 500mb inverted troughs to develop across the Gulf of Mexico
Monday and move westward towards south Texas Monday into Tuesday.
Low to mid level moisture will increase across south TX early next
week as a result. In addition...a 700mb inverted trough will move
across the CWA Tuesday and enhance seabreeze convection along the
lower TX coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Will mention a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday before increasing pops
Monday as a result. A slight chance to chance of thunderstorms
will develop across the coastal sections of deep south TX Monday
and continue into Tuesday. Rain chances should diminish slightly
Wednesday as the 700mb ridge across the Gulf of Mexico builds
westward. Will mention a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the rest of the forecast period even as a
weakness remains in the upper level ridge across south TX through
the rest of next week.

MARINE:
Now through Saturday night...No marine headlines expected through
the period. Broad high pressure across the SE CONUS/northern Gulf
of Mexico will yield a weak pressure gradient for mainly light
winds and low-to-moderate seas. Winds become more moderate
offshore on Saturday night but still below SCEC criterion.
Isolated showers may occasionally develop and move north along the
coast.

Sunday through Wednesday...Light south to southeast winds will
prevail across the coastal waters Sunday with surface high
pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
will remain weak across the lower Texas coast Monday before
increasing slightly Monday night. Light to moderate southeast
winds Monday will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico as a
result. The pressure gradient is expected to continue to increase Tuesday
with low pressure across west TX and high pressure across the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to strong south to southeast winds are
expected across the western Gulf Tuesday before diminishing
slightly on Wednesday.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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