Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 270645 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY MUCH CLR SKIES ACROSS
THE RGV WITH THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY PWAT OF
1.73 INCHES. EXPECT THE FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
INDICATED BY THE LIMITED NAM RH FIELDS. SOME FAIR WX CU/SC WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DAYTIME
HEATING KICKS IN. SO WILL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THREE RGV
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. VFR WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY
WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY AND SCATTERED CLOUDINESS PREVAILING
OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOW UPPER LEVEL CENTER OVER SW GULF
COAST KEEPING A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH
A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE NAM
AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS BROAD LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY WEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
UPPER 90S WITH ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE CONTENT BEGINS TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE INTO MIDNIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS TX
ASSOCIATED TO A UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE SE
PLAINS. INCREASE POPS FOR AT LEAST 15 PERCENT MAINLY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTIES STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WOULD EXPECT A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. INVERTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
EXTENDS OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST GULF. MODELS PROJECT THIS UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF TO SLOWLY FILL IN BECOMING AN EXTENSION OF
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. THIS EVOLVES INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH OR A SHEAR ZONE OVER TEXAS REMAINING IN PLACE MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THE UNUSALLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST PUSHES A FRONT WAY SOUTH BUT
IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WELL NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY
PULL UP STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL BEND. GFS
AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DEEPEN MOISTURE VALUES SUNDAY WITH POPS CHANCES
GOING UP SLIGHTLY. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES MONDAY MODELS INDICATE
MID LEVEL DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE WESTERN GULF LOWERING RAIN
CHANCES. WINDS HOWEVER INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS MAY
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING WITH MEAN RH VALUES OVER 50
PERCENT UP TO 500MB. GFS SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURES SEEPING
NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND SURGING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS PWATS
EXCEED 2 INCHES. MODELS GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A BUMP UP IN POPS
MID WEEK AND INHERITED FORECAST INDICATES THIS AS WELL. IN A
NUTSHELL, THE MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE THE UPPER WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST SOME DAILY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE SUNDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE VARIATION
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH TO SE
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE LAGUNA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SE
WINDS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FEET AT THE
MOST. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SCEC OR SCA AT THIS TIME FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO STALL OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE LATER MONDAY.
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW SUNDAY BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY AND STRENGTHENS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GULF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS TO EXCEED EXERCISE CAUTION VALUES
AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDSAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  89  78  90 /  10  20  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          78  92  78  92 /  10  30  20  20
HARLINGEN            77  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  20
MCALLEN              77  95  77  95 /  10  30  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      76  95  76  97 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  85  80  86 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54


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