Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021518
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1018 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A FEW LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A TEMPO BETWEEN 12-14Z FOR
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATER MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z BRO
SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.70 INCHES. TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTION SHOWS DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB AND
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.80 INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE FOR TODAY. WILL BLEND
BETWEEN THE DRIER MAV/MET AND THE WETTER ECWMF FOR POPS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR MOVES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION...MAINLY FOR THE GULF
WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S ALONG THE BEACHES...LOW 90S ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE MID 90S FOR THE UPPER VALLEY AND OVER THE WEST FOR
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TO TODAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90
ALONG THE COAST...MID 90S IN THE VALLEY AND THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
WEST.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND ONLY OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AS 500 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES
WEST AND WEAKENS. 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
DOMINANT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INHERITED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB HIGH.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 IS
CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 4.3
FEET. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR A PORTION OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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