Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
FXUS64 KBRO 171132 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
632 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION....A mix of low and mid level cloud decks and light
winds prevail across Deep South Texas this morning. BRO radar
currently indicates isolated to scattered convection across the
lower Texas Gulf waters. VFR conditions with light southeast winds
should prevail through mid-morning with a few passing showers
possible at BRO and HRL. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop around mid-day due a mid-level
disturbance overhead. Will continue to mention TEMPO groups at
all terminals for the expected convection. MVFR conditions are
likely to occur at times in the heavier showers and thunderstorms.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 417 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Latest water vapor imagery shows
the mid-level low/inverted trough overhead. Brownsville radar
currently indicates isolated to scattered showers across the Gulf
waters and just south of the Rio Grande River this morning. The
combination of deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values of
2.17 inches per 00Z BRO raob), daytime heating and the mid-level
disturbance overhead will provide scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across Deep South Texas today. Weak winds aloft will
support slow moving convection today, so any thunderstorms that
develop have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

The mid-level weakness moves west over Mexico tonight and Tuesday.
Mid level dry air moves over the area tonight leaving isolated rain
chances for tonight and Tuesday. High temperatures today are
expected to remain generally in the 90s but are highly dependent on
convection and cloud cover. Low temperatures tonight will remain in
the mid to upper 70s to around 80 along the beaches. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from the low to mid 90s near the
coast to the upper 90s to triple digits across the west.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Dry conditions are
forecast through a majority of the period with 500 mb high
pressure centered over the Central Plains and extended over Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The exception to this
expected weather pattern will be Tuesday night through Wednesday
and on Friday, as the passage of a couple of weak inverted 500 mb
troughs under the high pressure ridge generate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for most and/or all of the BRO

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds
around 12 knots with gusts near 16 knots and seas of 1.3 feet with a
period of 3 seconds at 03 CST/08 UTC. Favorable marine conditions
expected through the period as broad high pressure remains in
control across the Gulf. Light to moderate south to southeast winds
and low to moderate seas will prevail along the lower Texas coast
today through Tuesday. The main marine impacts will be from any
showers and thunderstorms that develop, which would produce locally
higher winds and seas.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: Broad surface high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico will produce light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas for the Lower Texas coastal waters during the




This product is also available on the web at:

63 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.