Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 151137 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST WINDS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE INLAND
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH TODAY AND SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS
EVENING. EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVER THE RANCH LANDS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER MOST OF THE
VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST ALLOWING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
RETURN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...NO MAJOR COLD FRONTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL NOT PREVENT PRECIPITATION
FROM OCCURRING WITHIN THE BRO CWFA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGHINESS
AT THE SURFACE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SERIES OF 500 MB
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVERHEAD GENERATES ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ANTICIPATED...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
AND STEADILY INCREASE TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTS NORTH WINDS
OF 31 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 37 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 16.1 FEET AT
250 AM/750 UTC THIS MORNING. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS UNTIL 10 AM. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT
TO DETERMINE IF THE GALE WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 10 AM
OR REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ADVERSE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS
AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. MARINE PLATFORMS ALONG
THE LAGUNA MADRE INDICATE WINDS RANGING FROM 18 TO 26 KNOTS THIS
MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE LAGUNA
MADRE THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS ON THE
LAGUNA MADRE IF WINDS DO NOT DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST.
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. MODERATE
EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH SEAS FALLING TO EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH PASSAGES OF COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED OR MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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