Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 040750
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MOST RECENT KBRO UPPER
AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE NEAR 2 INCHES.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BRO CWFA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. A RAPID INFLUX OF DRIER AIR TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
DRY WEATHER AT THAT TIME AND THROUGH SUNDAY...AIDED BY 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ONLY VERY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO DAYTIME HIGH
AND THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MADE...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES LIKELY TO PERSIST.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHILE RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING A SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON...SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE CONTROL BY BROAD
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF AND EAST COAST
AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS
KEEPING A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE GULF COAST FEEDING
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE. THE SE
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR MASS SETS UP
ACROSS THE CWA LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE.

BY MID WEEK...GFS 12Z AND 00Z RUN ARE DEPICTING AN INVERTED TROUGH
WITH DEEP AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO SHIFTING
NORTHWARD ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FOR THE LOWER VALLEY AS MODEL SHOW MUCH HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT STILL REMAINING TO THE SOUTH ONLY FAVORING THE
LOWER RGV. DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWA LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG THE COAST AND
TRIPLE DIGITS OUT WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGE BUILDS INTO SATURDAY
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE WHICH TAKES US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY MUCH
THROUGH THE LONG TERM RANGING BETWEEN MID TO UPPER 70S AND NEAR
80S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.


.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 18 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY UNDER
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INTERACTION OF THE BROAD BERMUDA
HIGH OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE THERMAL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS WILL
INCREASE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY NIGHT. THIS GRADIENT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT KEEP A SE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY WILL ENHANCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FEET POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE SCEC CONDITIONS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL REMAIN MODERATE WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR SCEC OR SCA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  80  91  79 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          93  79  92  79 /  20   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            95  78  94  78 /  20   0   0   0
MCALLEN              95  78  96  78 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      97  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  80  88  80 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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