Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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691
FXUS64 KBRO 041044
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
544 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CLEAR
SKIES WITH VFR PREVAILING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FOR PART OF THE DAY MAINTAINING OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS DEEP S
TEXAS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE MAKING IT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY VEERING NE TO E BY
THE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD RETURNING NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BREAKING THE OVC TO BKN CLOUD DECK BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THICKNESS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISE OUT WEST AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP
INTO 15 TO 17 DEG WHICH WILL AID FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
90S OUT WEST AND MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS DRY AIR MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE 60S AND UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

THURSDAY RIDGE BUILDS MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE
40S OUT WEST AND LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND MID TO LOW 20PRECENT IN THE
MID VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER REACHING THE
MID 90S OUT WEST AND LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 500 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST...WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS RIDGE...COMBINED
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONING FROM THE LONE STAR STATE
TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GENERALLY BETWEEN
75 AND 1.5 INCHES PRECIPITABLE-WATER-WISE...WILL PRODUCE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE BRO CWFA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
BRIEF OPPORTUNITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERS THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGS A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST
-TO-NORTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
CONTINUE TO NOT BE ANTICIPATED...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS S TEXAS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS VEERING
WINDS EAST TO SE. DRY AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF CLEARING
SKIES AND RETURNING WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. WINDS AND
SEAS AS A RESULT WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY ONLY PREVAIL DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MORE ADVERSE WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
PERIOD...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
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