Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231845
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
145 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN FIRST
PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE INCREASED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS DUE TO A
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TIGHTENING UP THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE IMPACT FOR THE
MARINE AREAS...SEE BELOW DISCUSSION...BUT MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WILL REPRESENT A RETURN TO A MORE
TYPICAL WIND REGIME FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. MOISTURE
WILL KEEP PILING UP ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT...WITH
COPIOUS LOW CLOUDINESS SETTING UP UNDER A STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE THAT WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR 10
TO 20 MPH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 70 DEGREES.

MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF U.S. 281
THURSDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER MAY BE A CATEGORY LESS OUT WEST TOMORROW
AS A RESULT...OR PARTLY CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG AND STARR...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST.
COULD SEE SOME POP UP SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT/DRY
LINE BOUNDARY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOCALLY IN THE DRIER REGIME
OUT WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FAR WEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 70...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST BUT CLEARER INLAND. LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LIGHT TO MDT FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS AND HIGH DEW
POINTS BUMP UP AGAINST EACH OTHER.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

MAINLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CYCLOGENSIS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGH
PLAINS AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A 80 KNOT UPPER
LEVEL JET AND WEAK VORTICITY MAX COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OUT WEST BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW DONT THINK ITS WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC ZONES.

FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF A DRYLINE/TROUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR BEHIND IT. FAIRLY LOW HUMIDITY /9-20% WEST OF HWY 281/ IS
EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS TO SOAR
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. USED A LITTLE MORE ECX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD /ECX WARMER THAN MEX/ TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
100S ACROSS MORE AREAS WEST OF HWY 281 AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
BETWEEN HWY 281 AND HWY 77.

THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING. LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT AS WELL SO NO
PRECIPITATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER AND
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS IS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND BOOSTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
APPROACH 20 KTS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT...AND LOW SEAS WILL BUILD TO
MODERATE...WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS INTO WEST TEXAS FROM FARTHER WEST. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5-7 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE CAUTION WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS SEAS ARE SLOW TO FALL DESPITE SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  71  84  71  84 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          71  85  71  86 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            70  89  69  89 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              71  92  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      70  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  79  69  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...58





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