Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 021817
AFDBRO
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
117 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
BY 15Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
SO VFR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AND HAVE MVFR
VIS IN THE TAFS AFT 09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY QUIET
NEXT 36 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY MAY LEAD TO
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND SAME CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR AREA. PWATS PROGGED
TO BE 1.2-1.4 INCHES THIS PERIOD AND DRY AIR DOWN TO 800MB WILL
KEEP SEA BREEZE CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY EACH DAY WITH DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE HIGH PLAINS AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AN H5 RIDGE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD
SLOWLY EAST AS AN H5 LOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE BEGINS TO EJECT
EAST. THE H5 RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS BY LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN SUPPORT
DRY WEATHER ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES...TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
COAST...TO THE MID 90S FAR WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN...HAD NO REAL ISSUES USING A MODEL BLEND
AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST FRAMEWORK. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS LOOKED CONSISTENT AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM EACH
OTHER...RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 1 FOOT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 5 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN
VERY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HYDROLOGY...THE RIO GRANDE NEAR SAN BENITO (SBNT2) WAS NEAR 52
FEET MONDAY EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 54 FEET EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AT 55 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING REACHES
INTO THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE FLOOD PLAIN INSIDE THE LEVEES WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE RIO GRANDE AT LOWER BROWNSVILLE (LOBT2)
WAS NEAR 22 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST NEAR 23
FEET THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLOOD STAGE FOR LOBT2 IS 27 FEET. AT 24
FEET...THE RIVER EXCEEDS THE LOWEST SECTIONS OF THE BANKS INSIDE
THE LEVEES. THESE RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE ARE
BASED ON THE CURRENT AND CONTINUED RELEASES FROM THE MARTE GOMEZ
RESERVOIR IN MEXICO.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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