Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 220923
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THE 0Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2.22 INCHES.

THE FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS POPS GO. MID LEVEL DRIER AIR
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR REACHES.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG THE WITH ECMWF INDICATE HIGHER POPS THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL AIRMASS RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL BE IN A STATE OF
TRANSITION THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL BE GIVING WAY TO INCREASED MID LEVEL
TROFFING DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL
LIKELY CUT OFF OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATER THIS
CURRENT WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS NEVER
SERIOUSLY DIMINISH OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD
WITH THE RGV STAYING ON THE NORTHERN MOST EDGE OF A LARGER AREA OF
MOISTURE THAT STAYS POOLED OVER MUCH OF MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LINGERING MOISTURE POOL WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH AN
OLD STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF CONV THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THE CONV POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A
PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH NEXT THE LOWER TX COASTLINE FOR
MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH KEEPING THE POPS CLOSE TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING
POPS CLOSER TO CHC CATEGORY. THE WETTER BIAS IN THE GFS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE MODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH
VERSUS THE ECMWF. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE LOWER ECMWF POPS AS
BELIEVE THAT THE GFS POPS MAY BE A BIT OVERDOING THE POTENTIAL OF
THE COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH.

MAX AND MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MEX
MOS WITH BOTH MODELS MAINTAINING A GENERAL STATUS QUO TEMPS
THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING EAST
WINDS OF 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 5.9 FEET.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE
RIDGING TO OUR NORTH AND THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEX
WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY MODERATE E-NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOWER
TX BAY AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE PGF MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WINDS AND SWELLS CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIOS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK OVER THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  90  78  89  76 /  30  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          91  76  91  74 /  30  20  20  20
HARLINGEN            92  75  92  73 /  20  20  20  20
MCALLEN              92  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      93  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   88  79  88  78 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...CAMPBELL





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