Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 192314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
614 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail through the next 24
hours. Isolated to locally scattered convection continues across
the ranchlands and western brush country, with little activity
near TAF sites. Current gusty winds will diminish through the
evening hours and become light overnight. An upper level low over
Mexico could bring another surge of moisture across the region
tonight, possibly bringing a low end chance of shower activity
after midnight right along the Rio Grande and over the lower
Valley. Moving into Thursday expect less convective activity as
pockets of drier air aloft move in, however isolated sea breeze
activity will remain possible.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 232 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid-level ridging
settling over the Southern Plains and high pressure over the Gulf
will provide the backdrop for a general decrease in convective
potential over the next 24 hours. Mainly isolated showers and
tstorms will still be possible through this evening, but chances
will be much more limited going forward. Isolated streamer showers
will be possible along the coast tonight. PWat will decrease from
around two inches to an inch and a half by Thursday, with
continued light to moderate southeast winds. Overnight low
temperatures will range from the mid 70s to near 80 while daytime
high temperatures will range from the lower 90s near the coast to
near the century mark out west. High temperatures will inch up
just a bit tomorrow under mostly sunny skies. Inland heat index
readings will range from about 103 to 108 degrees Thursday

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): The long term forecast will
be dominated by the chaotic strength 17 ridge across the southern
US. Armed with a +1 shield of deflection and a dry air cap (at mb
level 925), limited moisture at the surface will keep any
seabreeze convection from piercing through. A rogue inverted
trough drifting west across the southeastern US will need a
considerable saving throw to draw adjacent moisture back into the
valley, but this looks unlikely until the early to middle portions
of next week at the earliest. Until then, charisma will be tested
as the heat expands it`s area of influence across south Texas,
with highs in the upper 90s and low 100s.

Now through Thursday night: Surface high pressure over the Gulf
will support light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate
seas. Isolated convection in the form of streamer showers will be
possible tonight as moisture moves north from the Southwest Gulf.

Friday through Sunday: Gradient strengthens across the northwest
Gulf through the weekend as a storm system crosses the central
plains. Winds around 10 knots on Friday will increase to around 15
knots Saturday and 15 to 20 for Sunday. This will influence wave
action across the Gulf, with seas of 2 to 3 feet Friday growing to
3 to 5 feet by Sunday.




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