Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 201556
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1056 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...12Z BRO SOUNDING AND GOES SOUNDER INDICATE INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATBLE WATER ALONG THE COAST AND WESTERN GULF HAS
OCCURED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAKENING TUTT AXIS AND HIGHER
MOISTURE POOL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST...FURTHER INLAND...TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING AND
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL INCREASE JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET. BREEZES WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KBRO AS A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS MOVE
INLAND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...TODAY IS THE DAY THAT THE
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS IN THE VICINITY COME TOGETHER. THE WEAKENING H2
LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN AND MOVE TO THE NW...WHILE THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ASHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT BRINGING
MUCH MOISTURE INTO THE REGION /1.7 TO 1.8 PW/... BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING SHOW THAT ANY
INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...THE SEABREEZE WILL BE A NON-
FACTOR WITH TOO MUCH SHEAR. SO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL NEED TO MEANDER INTO THE REGION FROM AFAR...MAINLY ANY
STREAMER CONVECTION OFFSHORE MOVING INLAND. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH NOON...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
TRANSITING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
WANE LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TRANSITIONING BACK
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION OFFSHORE WILL END DURING THE NIGHT
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION MOVES WEST...WITH THE GULF ON THE
MORE STABLE SIDE. WITH THE WAVE AND THE H2 LOW MOVING TO THE WEST
THURSDAY...MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTIVE CHANCES...AND BRING TEMPS BACK TO A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...H5 HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AREA TO START THE LONG TERM
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS OUR AREA. LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF S/W TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHAT THIS MEANS IS...WITH SFC
RIDGING ON TOP OF US...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE BREEZIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY WITH WINDS A LITTLE
LESS INTO THE WEEKEND. MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PUT A DAMPER ON
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND BUT ONE OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AS A SMALL BOOST IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON JUST IN TIME FOR THE DAILY
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN
HOT WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S IN THE INLAND
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH INTO THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA OF EASTERN TENNESSEE. THIS MEANS THAT THE
HIGH WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ENTER THE PICTURE. LOW/MID LEVELS SATURATE SOMEWHAT
WHICH MEANS A FEW MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THE
MID/UPPER VALLEY WILL HAVE A SHOT AS WELL IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS
WHICH APPEARS LIKELY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE
WINDS.

MARINE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TODAY. HAVE HOISTED ANOTHER SCA FOR
THE LAGUNA FOR WINDS OF 20 KNOTS. SEAS OFFSHORE HAVE LOWERED TO 3
FEET...BUT EXPECT WAVES TO RISE BACK TO 4 FEET OR SO THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE MARINE AREAS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT UNTIL THE
WAVE MOVES INLAND. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SCEC OVER
THE LAGUNA FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EXPECT MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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