Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 240533 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1133 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...SURFACE OBS AND IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A
DECK OF MARINE FOG IS MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO POST A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR BOTH COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED UP OVER THE BRO AIRPORT
THIS EVENING REDUCING CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR LEVELS. THIS DENSER
FOG MAY LINGER ON THROUGH AROUND 10 TO 11Z MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
THEN DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. SOME DENSER FOG MAY EDGE INTO
THE HRL AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT BELIEVE
MFE MAY ESCAPE THE DENSER FOG DUE TO ITS MORE WESTWARD ORIENTATION.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ANY RESIDUAL FOG WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE 00Z TAF SET. HOWEVER LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RGV THIS EVENING WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS POINT THE 00Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A
VERY DRY ATMS OVER THE REGION WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.48 INCHES. ANY
FOG THAT DOES FORM WOULD BE LIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY BE PRETTY
SHALLOW. SO WILL MENTION SOME LIGHT FOG FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH HERE AROUND 12Z MON. AFTER THE FROPA THE DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A NICE...AND DRYER DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
AMID DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S AND A LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IS NUDGING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THAT WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
WILL NOT BE MARKED BY ANOTHER MODEST DRYING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S NORTH...MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BUT MOST OF THAT SHOULD BE CLEARED
OUT BEFORE THE AM COMMUTE.

MONDAY...A COOL NORTH BREEZE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 DEGREES. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH AWAY FROM THE REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS FALLING OFF IN THE EVENING AND ONLY
A FEW HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS A COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S NORTH...AND AROUND 50 TO 53 IN THE RGV METRO AREAS.
/68-JGG/

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY WILL SWING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES
SETTLES INTO SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
SOUTH TX WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A WEAK 500MB TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WEST TX THURSDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING A FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE COAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ROUGHEN SEAS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS OF
THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ROUGH SEAS WILL
BECOME MORE MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PROVIDES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
AS A RESULT.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  58  72  55  71 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          57  73  54  72 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            55  72  51  72 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              56  73  52  72 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  72  48  71 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  72  61  71 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ254>257.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-150.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...51






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