Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 020541 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MOVE INLAND AS A WEAK 500MB
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES 18Z
THROUGH 24Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DISSIPATING SHOWERS APPROACHING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING KBRO THROUGH 9 PM. NO THUNDER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMALL AREA OF RAIN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 15 MPH. CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN AND
OTHER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE IN THE VFR RANGE
WITH NO MVFR OR IFR EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROBABILITIES
FROM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS OR LOW
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE LATEST BRO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE
12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.97 INCHES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER INLAND. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RGV. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ONCE AGAIN
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER MAY
PERSIST ON THROUGH DAY 7 WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLD
COVER TO PERSIST ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL.

THE GFS MEX AND ECMWF MODEL HIGH/LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 50/50 BLEND
OF THE TWO MODEL SETS FOR TEMPS. THE GFS MEX POPS STILL TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS MODEL TREND IS BEING SKEWED HIGH DUE TO CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
SEAS OF 1 FOOT WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL START OF NEXT WEEK FAIRLY
WEAK ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT STARTING LATE TUES/WED AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS MAY
PUSH THE WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE IN THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCEC CONDITIONS WED/THURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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