089
FXUS62 KMLB 261727
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
127 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

- Shower and storm chances increase today into the weekend, with a
  Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather through Friday.

- Heat continues to be a concern over the next few days, as peak
  heat indices reach 100 to 105. Proper precautions should be
  taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Today-Tonight...Ridging continues at the surface today as a mid and
upper level low better aligns over the Florida peninsula. Higher
moisture begins to move into the local area today, with PWATs
increasing to 1.7-1.8" by the afternoon. The upper level low is
forecast to provide additional support today, with 500mb
temperatures around -9 to -10C. There is a Marginal Risk (1/5)
for severe weather today, mainly for gusty winds to around 60 mph
due to steep sfc-3km lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km. However,
lightning strikes, hail, and locally heavy rainfall will also be
threats. Have trended PoPs towards global models as the NBM is
likely overdoing PoPs. In contrast, CAMs do not seem to like
shower and storm chances today (possibly due to modest CAPE for
Florida or an early start to the sea breeze), though they haven`t
been initializing well with ongoing convection over the Atlantic
waters prior to sunrise this morning. For now, have included
scattered showers and storms along the coast south of Cape
Canaveral this morning, becoming scattered to numerous and
spreading inland along the sea breeze this afternoon. Overall,
PoPs generally 40-60% today.

The east coast sea breeze will remain the dominant breeze today,
with winds remaining around 15 mph or less. This will quickly clear
any convection into the western half of the peninsula by the evening
hours. Then, additional showers and storms will remain possible over
the Atlantic waters overnight. However, increasingly southerly flow
should keep most activity offshore. Hot temperatures continue today,
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Increasingly humid
conditions will lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Overnight lows in the 70s.

Friday-The Weekend...The Atlantic ridge axis elongates into this
weekend, settling in over the local area, as the upper level low
drifts northward. Southerly flow will continue to advect deeper
moisture into east central Florida, with PWATs further increasing to
1.7-near 2" this weekend. The east coast sea breeze will become
gradually less dominant, with the daily afternoon collision
occurring over the central or even eastern half of the peninsula.
Thus, high coverage of showers and storms is forecast each afternoon
into the evening hours, with PoPs 60-70%. A few strong to marginally
severe storms will remain possible, particularly on Friday, as some
drier air aloft leads to DCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and sfc-3km
lapse rates remain steep. Convection is forecast to linger into the
evening hours, before diminishing overnight. However, showers and
storms will continue to remain possible over the Atlantic waters
each night.

Hot afternoon temperatures continue, with highs in the lower 90 and
peak heat indices 100-105. Muggy overnight temperatures in the 70s
are forecast.

Monday-Independence Day...Mid to upper level low pressure moves
into the area once again next week, as the Atlantic ridge axis
moves northeastward. Thus, deep moisture looks to linger into
Independence Day. Combined with an increasing southwesterly flow
and support aloft, this would lead to high shower and storm
coverage and afternoon sea breeze collisions over the eastern
half of the peninsula through the week, should this forecast hold.
For now, have kept PoPs 50-70% through the extended for now due
to uncertainty at this time scale. Temperatures remaining near to
slightly above normal in the lower 90s. However, increasing
humidity will see heat indices creep up each day, reaching 100-105
degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail, despite showers
and storms developing over the Atlantic waters each night into the
morning hours. There will be an increasing threat for offshore
moving showers and storms this weekend into next week during the
mid afternoon to evening hours, as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts
and the east coast sea breeze becomes less dominant. A few storms
could be strong to marginally severe as they approach the coast,
especially Friday. Storm hazards include lightning, gusty winds,
hail, and heavy downpours.

East to southeast winds today will become south to southwest
Friday into next week, remaining less than 15 kts. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Increasing moisture and disturbance aloft combined with ECSB
moving well inland during the afternoon/evening; with SCT-NMRS
convection forecast though CAMs remain unimpressive with PoP
chances. Ongoing convection across the Space/Treasure coasts with
activity beginning to pop up over the interior. Continue VCTS
with TEMPO groups as necessary for coastal TAF sites. Have VCTS at
interior TAF sites with TEMPO groups well inland 18Z-22Z period.
It appears most convection expected to diminish or push west of
the inland sites by around 23Z. There could be some periodic
onshore-moving SHRA until after 06Z for coastal TAF sites, and
afterwards the storm steering flow becomes SSW/SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  74  91 /  20  60  40  70
MCO  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70
MLB  74  90  75  91 /  30  70  40  70
VRB  72  91  72  91 /  40  60  40  70
LEE  74  91  75  91 /  20  70  30  70
SFB  74  93  75  93 /  20  70  40  70
ORL  74  93  77  93 /  20  70  40  70
FPR  70  90  71  91 /  40  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Sedlock