037
FXUS63 KPAH 271735
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Welcome to Fall! Deep, closed upper low located over the Great
Lakes region this morning will rotate south into the Ohio Valley
during the next 48-72 hours. This will result in a prolonged
period of near or slightly below normal temperatures through the
short term. Deterministic models seem to agree that the center of
the upper low will remain just east of the forecast area, but this
still may be close enough to generate a few showers over our
eastern counties as we head toward mid week/late week. Would not
be too surprised to see some cold air funnel cloud reports by that
time, esp just east of the forecast area, where sb capes at or
above 500 J/KG may be generated underneath the upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

Models are coming into better agreement with ECMWF which was
previously the outlier. The consensus is to sink a cut off upper
low from the great lakes region south/southwestward over central KY
toward the end of the week. The cut off low will drift slowly south
through Indiana by Thursday and sit and spin. This upper low will
have a surface reflection of a trough vs a true cold front that will
move through the area. Possibly even retrograde into southwest
Indiana by Saturday morning before lifting northeast this weekend.
This will bring a chance of rain to the area especially east of the
Mississippi River. There will be little in the way of surface based
instability with LI`s staying well in the positive and CAPE reading
50 j/kg2 or less. K index values never rise above 25 and the
showalters stay positive at 850mb of course. Therefore will not
introduce convection at this time but leave showers in the forecast.
In addition with the added cloud cover will keep temperatures a
little below normal throughout the extended. The next frontal system
to affect the area will come in the middle of next week when a cold
front is poised to move through again.

Less confidence in the extended than previous nights...at least with
the deterministic models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

West winds will be the rule until a cold front arrives late
Wednesday morning. A few gusts into the teens will be possible
this afternoon and just ahead of the front in the morning. We
should keep enough wind through the night to prevent fog
formation, but will not be at all surprised if KCGI tanks again.
Showers are expected as the cold front moves through KEVV and
KOWB. Cannot rule out a brief MVFR ceiling with/behind the front
at either site, but will keep the forecasts VFR for now.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS