000
FXUS63 KPAH 052100
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Stratus attack us! The low IFR stratus deck remains southeast of a
Poplar Bluff to Cape Girardeau to Harrisburg line, with the
eastern edge running from Harrisburg to Hopkinsville. The area has
shrunk from all edges through midday, but that trend seems to have
stalled out this afternoon. There will be some thickening of the
high clouds over the area tonight and some increase in mid-level
clouds as well. Tried to basically keep the stratus where it is
through much of the evening and just blend into the mostly cloudy
skies expected throughout the area around 06Z. However, would not
be at all surprised if they hang around or expand overnight. Also
will have to watch for them lowering back down to cause some fog
issues. With a storm system moving along the northern Gulf Coast,
surface ridging here is expected to keep a northeast wind under
10kts through the night. Generally went on the low end of guidance
for lows tonight, if not a bit below guidance.

Weak surface ridging will continue over the area Thursday through
Friday...before a cold front moves right to our northwest border
by 12Z Saturday. Northeast winds will diminish late Thursday, and
south winds will not return until later Friday into Friday
evening. The models still want to warm the low-levels despite the
snow/sleet cover and no significant southerly low-level flow.
Generally stayed on the low side of guidance except for the SEMO
foot heels Thursday...and undercut all guidance on Friday. The
consensus of guidance has highs well into the 50s Friday, but that
just seems too agressive given the situation. Actually like the
raw GEM surface temperatures, which seem to better reflect the
snowpack. This holds temperatures down to near 50 for much of the
area. With clear and nearly calm conditions expected Thursday
night undercut guidance just a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Models show a cold front pushing across the PAH forecast area
Saturday, with mainly some light post frontal precipitation Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night.  GFS is about 6 to 9 hours faster
than the ECMWF and only generates precip Saturday afternoon.  ECMWF
keeps some light precip across mainly our southwest half of counties
through Saturday night, while the GEM is a nice compromise of the
two.  Models are in agreement amounts will be light, but with timing
in question, went with slight to low chance pops Saturday for all
but our far southeast counties, then just slight pops area wide
Saturday night.  Temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s will
keep any precipitation in the form of rain.  By Saturday night,
colder air filtering into the region behind the front will lead to
any lingering precip mixing with or changing to snow before ending.
Again, with amounts very light, precip amounts will not be
significant.

High pressure will build into the central U.S. Sunday, sliding
southeast into the early part of the work week.  After cooler
conditions on Sunday, winds will shift back to the southwest Sunday
night.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will rebound back to
the upper 50s to lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday.  Overnight lows
will actually be a little above normal in the upper 30s to lower
40s.  By Tuesday night into Wednesday, GFS and ECMWF show very
different solutions with a low pressure system.  GFS takes it well
north of our region and drags a cold front across the area, while
ECMWF drags the low right across the PAH forecast area.  Both
generate some QPF Tuesday night, but ECMWF then produces significant
QPF through the day Wednesday while GFS is dry.  Went with slight
chance pops Tuesday night across all of our counties, then went low
chance pops west to slight chance pops east Wednesday, but
confidence is very low.  The one good point, it should be warm
enough to keep it all rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

Scatter to broken high clouds will stream over the region through
the period...and winds will be northeast under 10kts. The main
question is if/when the IFR ceilings will dissipate over KCGI and
KPAH. Satellite indicates that the cloud deck is eroding on all
sides, but much of guidance holds onto it through the night at
KCGI and at least through sunset at KPAH. Went on the pessimistic
side, and am hopeful that that will lead to a rapid clearing
trend this afternoon.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS