Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 041858

158 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Satellite shows enhanced CU over parts of the area, mainly
SEMO, where best instability axis exists. If activity can form
it will likely not last. Probably a < 10 percent chance of an
isolated shower, with any chance quickly gone by sunset, like the
past couple of days.

Upper trof will remain over the NW sector of the CONUS with a
persistent ridge from TX to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, while
an upper low develops over the SE U.S. All of the models agree a
wedge of drier air will remain parked over the area just east of
the ridge axis. This will keep conditions essentially dry through
the end of the weekend, as surface high pressure only slowly moves
east. Hot days, but some relief at night given the shorter days,
quick temperature falls just after sunset. Persistence was used
for temps, close to MOS values.

.LONG TERM...(Labor Day through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

The 00Z models are in reasonable agreement in the synoptic evolution
through the extended portions of the forecast. The trough west/ridge
east upper pattern will continue through Monday and into Tuesday,
and then it will flatten out and become nearly zonal mid-week. The
tail end of a mid/upper-level trough will push a cold front through
the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak cyclonic flow
will develop behind this system, as a complete flip/flop of the
upper flow pattern is completed Thursday.

Convective potential will be focused on Wednesday and Wednesday
night with the cold front and mid/upper-level forcing passing
through the region. The models are not painting solid swaths of
convection through the entire area, and convergence about the cold
front may not be that great, so will cap PoPs at 50% for now. The
GEM is much stronger with the mid/upper-level system than the GFS
and ECMWF, which leads to a better defined cold front, and
presumably stronger convection. Therefore, cannot completely rule
out a few severe storms near the cold front Wednesday afternoon and

The trend in the 00Z models was to hold the cold front back to our
northwest longer with strong zonal flow over the central Plains, so
will keep Monday/Labor Day completely dry, and would like to keep
the entire area dry through Tuesday. However, will have very slight
PoPs Monday night along the northwest periphery of the area, and
slowly increase and spread them eastward through Tuesday night.

With the ridge holding on and less PoPs/clouds, figure that forecast
highs on Monday and Tuesday may not be hot enough. Both days may be
just as warm as Sunday. Clouds and potential precipitation should
finally knock temperatures down to near normal levels Wednesday. A
rather nice surge of high pressure Thursday should lead to quick
drying from northwest to southeast, and temperatures should fall to
below normal levels.


Issued at 1146 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Persistence forecast, with diurnal CU expected this afternoon,
followed by mostly clear skies tonight, and areas of mainly MVFR
fog. Light winds.




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