Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230912
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATE IS FOR THE AVIATION SECTION. ALSO ADDED SOME SPRINKLES INTO
THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWFA PER RETURNS ON KPAH/KVWX. MODELS NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL AT ALL. SOME EVIDENCE OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
310K...700-500MB WAA AND MOISTURE PER THE RAP MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

WILL BE ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA... ALLOWING FOR MOIST UNSETTLED SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
BROAD TROF AND LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES CONTINUING. THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...PRECIP CHANCES
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AREAS OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
SW/NE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
FOCUS. USED A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND LATEST BASE MODEL
OUTPUT FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS/TIMING FOR THE EXTENDED.

AS USUAL TRIED TO RULE OUT POPS FOR THE LEAST LIKELY TIME
FRAMES...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE WITH CAPES
SOARING INTO THE 1K 1500 J/KG/2 RANGE AT TIMES COULD NOT RULE OUT
THUNDER WITH ANY OF THE POPS. HOWEVER THE FORECAST SOUNDING DO NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AND THERE WILL BE SOME PERTURBATIONS ALOFT THAT MOVE
THROUGH AND WILL SERVE AS A KICKER FOR STORMS. THERE ARE LITTLE TO
NO SURFACE REFLECTIONS OTHER THAN MAYBE A WEAK TROUGH MID WEEK OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER DO
NOT SEE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THE EXTENDED. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL LIKELY SEE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE
WINDS THE RULE. DERIVED CU RULE OFF THE MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IF
ANY LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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