Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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185
FXUS63 KPAH 281137
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Updated for 12z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Medium to high confidence in the short term.

A short wave trough is slowly moving across the area from west to
east with a surface reflection of a cold front. The cold front
does not make it all the way through the forecast area as previous
progs placed which comes as no surprise for this time of year. It
does keep most of the area in the warm sector. With PW`s ranging
from 1.5 to 2.5 inches a frontal boundary in the area combined
with perturbation in the flow aloft...would expect any storms to
be very efficient rain producers. Although I think the flash flood
watch may extend too far west and north...any convection will be
capable of producing well over an inch in half hour. This would
flood just about any location our forecast area. Therefore will
not reduce the length or longevity of the watch for now but do
believe the best chance of any flooding will in the Pennyrile area
mainly east of the lakes and along and south of the West Ky
parkway. With the upper trough still poised to move through will
not tamper with watch but will likely need adjusting on the day
shift. Otherwise with all the cloud cover and precipitation across
the area would expect well below triple digits in fact it will top
out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today for most locations. In
contrast with dew points still remaining in the 70s to around
70...it will still remain muggy at best. We will likely see some
patchy dense fog each morning through the short term especially
for locations that received rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Large dome of high pressure aloft over southern 2/3 contiguous U.S.
will be periodically bleated by northern stream energy spilling
overtop ridge, including overtop portions of Mississippi valley/PAH
FA.

Sunday-Monday ptn forecast sees this energy most active with up to
high chance Pops forecast Monday, when most vigorous short wave
dives se from nwlys aloft.

Height rise thereafter its passage mutes Pops some by mid week but
does not eliminate them altogether, allowing for some spatial
differences in modeling. Generally, lowest pops southward and
westward, toward highest pressures aloft, and highest pops northward
and eastward, closest to proximity northern stream energy.

By the end of the forecast, we see the broad H5 anticyclone
circulation center itself over the mid South, and ridge across the
Tn and lower-middle Ohio valleys. This will triumphally return the
excessive heat and humidity, with headline approaching heat indices
in the triple digits returning each day Tue-Wed and hinting
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Have a couple hours of tempo MVFR with fog cigs at the start of
the TAFs. Then transition to VFR rapidly this morning. Expect
some possible vsby reducing fog again Friday am as sunrise
approaches but should not be as prevalent as today.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ011>013-016-017-
     020>022.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...KH



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