Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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089
FXUS63 KPAH 092030
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Time/height cross sections show ribbon of low clouds is going to
hang thru pm hours, and may well hang thru much of night for our
eastern counties...despite Satellite`s show of sunshine working
into western counties already. Snow showers should remain
scattered about into evening hours before diminishing, as drier
air does work down the column after midnight especially.

After a brief lull in pcpn tmrw, another lobe of vorticity
rounding the base of the mean long wave trof will squeeze out more
snow showers Wed night. Another burst of 1/2 inch snows, maybe a
little more, can be expected across the heart of the FA.

Temps remain below freezing thru the bulk of the extended,
although southwest counties will rise above for Highs on Thursday.
Wind chills tmrw morning at school bus time will be within a
couple or three degrees either side of zero for most of FA, tad
warmer south/west but still single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

On Friday morning, the highly amplified upper pattern will still be
in place. A strong closed low over the southern part of Hudson Bay,
will move southeast during the first half of the weekend. We thought
that there would be enough energy aloft and moisture to warrant some
snow showers Friday and even though the better chances will be to
our east, we will be keeping the slight chance for snow in our
northeastern sections.

Another slug of cold air will arrive Friday night into Saturday.
While we may see a brief rise in temperatures on Friday, cold air
will be infiltrating into the area later in the day and continue
into Saturday along with strong northwesterly winds. Actually, we
will likely see temperatures on Saturday that are very similar to
what we are seeing today but we should see more sunshine on Saturday
which will help. This cold air will be arriving along with a
Canadian sfc high that drops southeast throughout the day on
Friday/Friday night. Models indicate the center of this high will
remain over the Great Lakes region but it will be close enough to
make for another cold night Saturday night/Sunday morning.

The next item of concern will be a system arriving on Sunday. Models
have definitely provided a bit more consistent signal when it comes
to this event, at least in timing. The GFS/ECMWF indicate a
shortwave will swing down from the north central Plains into the
area Sunday. While it looks like snow for a good part of the area, a
warm nose between 850mb-700mb could make things interesting for
areas like SEMO, where sleet and/or freezing rain could enter the
picture. The ECWMF keeps temperatures cold enough for all snow there
however. Just something we will need to keep an eye on for now as it
is way to early to get fancy with winter wx type. In addition, there
is some pretty decent looking QPF depending on the model and model
run you look at (12Z GFS/Canadian/GEFS have the highest QPF), so it
will definitely be one to watch.

The wave associated with this system should move east of the area by
Monday morning. So while there may be some lingering POPs Monday
morning, the afternoon looks good, at least for now. While some
models show yet another wave coming down the pike at us as early as
Monday night into Tuesday, models are not as consistent on that

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 221 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

Time height cross sections show thorough saturation of the column
below 600 mb thru 00Z...after which dry air starts to work down
below 600 mb slowly/but surely with time, west to east across the
terminals. Thus we`ll maintain an MVFR or low VFR cig into the
evening, then scatter overnight (at this writing) west to east,
taking the bulk of the night to scatter by KEVV/KOWB. Snow showers
will remain scattered into the early evening hours as well, also
ending west to east, and until then, may restrict vsbys to IFR at
times in isolated bursts but mainly be MVFR restricted vsbys.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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