Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
000
FXUS63 KPAH 160735
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunny and warm conditions are forecast today, with high
temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Elevated fire weather
conditions are possible this afternoon.
- A cold front will bring a brief shot of chilly air Sunday
through Monday. Subfreezing low temperatures are likely Monday
morning and again Tuesday morning.
- Temperatures will quickly moderate beginning Tuesday, with
near to slightly above normal temperatures expected for the
rest of the work week. A chance of light rain returns to the
forecast beginning Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Today and Tonight...The GOES-East nighttime cloud microphysics
product is showing isolated areas of fog developing over the MO
Bootheel through west KY and southwest IN. This is where BL
moisture is a little higher and winds are calm. Will maintain
the mention of patchy dense fog in the HWO. Depending on vsby
trends, a Special Weather Statement or even a Dense Fog Advisory
may be needed later this morning for portions or all of this
area.
The rest of the day will be sunny and pleasant as a 1016 mb
surface high over the central Plains elongates zonally and extends
eastward over the region. High temperatures will climb into the
middle to upper 60s in most areas, though the NBM ensemble
guidance shows about a 50% chance of high temperatures exceeding
70 degrees over the Ozark Foothills.
With excellent mixing expected through the boundary layer, dew
point temperatures will draw down to the 30-35 degree range this
afternoon, resulting in RH values of 25-35%. With sustained
west winds of 10-15 mph forecast, fire weather conditions could
become elevated this afternoon, particularly over the Ozark
Foothills. Planning to add a mention of elevated fire weather
concerns today into the HWO and the weather story.
Sunday through Monday night...The warm up will be short-lived
as a potent but moisture-starved cold front moves through region
Sunday and Sunday night. With 850 mb temperatures falling to 0
to -5C during the afternoon hours, high temperatures Sunday
will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than Saturday`s values, in
the middle to upper 50s. Blustery NW winds gusting up to 20 mph
will give the air an extra chilly bite. Sunday night, 850 mb
temperatures will dip to -9 to -12C per the global model
ensemble mean, resulting in low temperatures Monday morning
falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. With 850 mb
temperatures remaining around -10C during the day, high
temperatures Monday will only reach the middle to upper 40s,
roughly 10-15 degrees below normal for mid-March! The NBM
ensemble gives an 80-100% chance of high temperatures below 50
degrees on Monday. Monday night, winds will calm as high
pressure builds over the Mid-South. This will allow for even
colder low temperatures Tuesday morning, in the middle to upper
20s across the region. While the growing season has not started
yet, decorative plants will likely be damaged by these cold
temperatures.
Tuesday through Friday...Temperatures will warm quickly to
normal or slightly above normal values beginning Tuesday as a
generally zonal but split mid- and upper- level pattern becomes
established across the CONUS. As 850 mb temperatures warm to 4
to 8C, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s
in most areas through end of the work week. Thursday into
Friday, a weak disturbance will developing near the Gulf Coast,
with a poleward-reaching trough axis passing near or just south
of the region. The end result will be a chance of light rain
Thursday into Friday, though rainfall amounts look to be around
0.10" or less during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Now that skies have cleared across the entire forecast area,
VFR conditions should prevail through Saturday evening. The only
exception would be the potential development of patchy fog
across mainly western Kentucky around daybreak, which could
impact the KPAH and KOWB terminals for a few hours. Light and
variable winds tonight will pick up from the southwest around 10
knots on Saturday, then shift to the northwest with the dry
passage of a cold front Saturday night.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...RJP