Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 012233
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.

THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.

WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING.  GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE.  AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE.  WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES.  ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.  WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.  FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THETA-3 CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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