Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 171733
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing cold front will bring a shot of chilly temperatures
  and blustery northwest winds to the region today and Monday.
  Near freezing or subfreezing low temperatures are likely
  tonight and very likely Monday night.

- The very dry airmass and breezy winds will result in elevated
  fire weather conditions today, Monday, and Tuesday.

- Temperatures will moderate starting Tuesday, and will rise to
  near normal values during the second half of the week. A
  slight chance of light rain returns to the forecast Thursday
  through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today through Tuesday...A moisture-starved cold front associated
with a 992 mb surface low positioned south of Hudson Bay will
make its way through the forecast area early this morning. Other
than a general increase in mid- and high-level clouds, the main
impact will be much cooler temperatures today compared to
Saturday and blustery northwest winds gusting up to 20 mph.

The global model ensemble mean brings 850 mph temperatures down
to 0 to -5C by this afternoon, so high temperatures will stay
in the middle to upper 50s today (near or slightly below
normal). Tonight, 850 mb temperatures will continue to fall to
about -10C, and low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. The NBM ensemble gives a 50% chance of subfreezing
low temperature along the AR/TN border, and about a 100% chance
along the Interstate 64 corridor. Monday will be chilly and
breezy as 850 mb temperatures remain about -10C. High
temperatures will stay in the middle to upper 40s despite nearly
full mid-March sunshine.

Monday night will be the coldest night of the period as surface
high pressure moves towards the region from the central Great
Plains. With lighter winds and a very dry atmospheric column,
low temperatures should have no trouble falling into the middle
to upper 20s by Tuesday morning. The NBM ensemble shows a 90 to
100% chance of subfreezing low temperatures across the area.
While the growing season has not yet started, there is a lot of
decorative vegetation growing and budding. While no frost/freeze
headlines are planed, will continue to message the potential
for subfreezing temperatures.

Temperatures will moderate Tuesday afternoon back to near normal
values as the the upper-level trough shifts northeast of the
region. Surface high pressure positioned over the central and
southern Great Plains will keep the region dry. However, as
another area of low pressure passes across the northern Great
Lakes, gradient winds will kick up considerably, sustained at
15-20 mph from the WSW with gusts of 25-35 mph.

Wednesday through Saturday...For the second half of the week, a
generally zonal but split mid- and upper-level flow pattern is
expected to develop across the CONUS. Without any pronounced
ridging or troughing expected, seasonable temperatures are
forecast. High temperatures will generally range from 55-65
degrees with overnight lows of 35-45 degrees from north to
south, respectively. The global model ensemble mean continues to
show a weak surface low developing and traversing slowly along
the Gulf Coast Thursday through Saturday, with a poleward
extending trough axis moving through the region. The end result
will be slgt chc to low chc PoPs in the forecast each day.
However any rain that does fall will be very light, maybe only a
few hundreths at most. So there will be many hours of dry
conditions throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The TAFs are VFR. Northwest winds will gust 15-20kts this
afternoon and pick back up to those levels again Monday
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Despite the cooler temperatures, a very dry airmass is forecast
to move into the region today through Tuesday. The NAEFS
guidance shows atmospheric specific humidity levels at the 10th
percentile throughout the lower and middle levels of the
troposphere. For these reasons, confidence is somewhat high
that RH values will fall to about 25-35% each afternoon today,
Monday, and Tuesday. In the Mark Twain NF region, RH values may
drop to 15-20% locally today and Monday. Looking at 20 ft winds,
they should generally stay below 15 mph today and Monday.
Tuesday will see much higher values, but RH values will be
slightly higher as well.

As it stands, fire weather parameters look to approach but not
exceed critical fire weather thresholds through Tuesday, so no
headlines are planned. However, we will continue to message a
daily elevated risk of uncontrolled fire spread in our Hazardous
Weather Outlook.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS
FIRE WEATHER...DWS


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