Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Updated earlier to add a zone of isolated showers and
thunderstorms for the activity that has now all but dissipated
over the Pennyrile. An early look at the 12Z models indicates that
the showers and storms will be slower to arrive from the west, so
have tried to dry things out for the entire afternoon and then
ramp up PoPs through the evening. The other concern is high
temperatures which will definitely test if not destroy records.
With full sunshine for several hours in most locations and the
warm start to the day, upper 60s and lower 70s will be the rule.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Main forecast issues in the short term come with a deep upper
level low that will form and move east out of the southern Plains
later tonight and Sunday.

Model consensus seems to be converging on a solution which take
this low from the near the Red River Valley of TX/OK east-
northeast into the TN River Valley by Sunday afternoon. This will
bring another round of wet weather to much of the region later
tonight and especially Sunday. Highest rain amounts appear to be
across our southeast MO and western KY counties, where another
half inch to inch of rain could fall. While isolated thunderstorms
will be possible (esp southern areas), the expected track of the
system south of our forecast area should keep most of the severe
risk down over the southeast United States. As the system deepens
and moves farther east Sunday night/Monday, expect rain chances to
diminish and northwest winds to pick up. Most locations will have
20-30 MPH winds with some higher gusts. Will need to monitor for
possibly wind advisories in later packages.

In the meantime, today will be unseasonably warm and generally
rain-free as another system passes by to our south and southeast.
Will likely challenge some record highs as afternoon temps top
out in the upper 60s to near 70 in many locations. If we end up
with a bit more sunshine, some locations could pop into the lower
70s this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A much drier weather pattern is expected during the long-term
period, along with a gradual cool down. A major change in the 500
mb flow pattern will occur across the Lower 48. The persistent
trough over the western states will be replaced by a ridge, while
a broad trough develops over the eastern and central USA.

As far as the daily specifics, on Tuesday south winds will increase
ahead of a strengthening low over Kansas. There will likely be
considerable sunshine, which will help raise highs into the 50s.

A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
on Wednesday. This front will be associated with a weakening 500 mb
shortwave over the Great Lakes region. The models continue to
indicate the front will be dry until it encounters better moisture
to our southeast. A slight chance of showers will remain in the
forecast Wednesday southeast of the Ohio River. Highs will be in the
50s once again.

From Thursday through Friday, deep northwest flow will bring colder
air. Much of the guidance indicates the minus 10 isotherm at 850 mb
will make it into our region. Since mixing heights will be around
850 mb, surface temps will not be as cold as we typically experience
with 850 mb temps around minus 10. Highs will generally be around 40
degrees both days. Winds will be quite gusty due to strong mixing,
possibly up to 30 mph. The models indicate a very extensive area of
cold-air stratocu will envelope the Great Lakes region in the moist
cyclonic flow aloft. This cloud shield will likely extend down
across southwest Indiana and adjacent counties for much of the
Thursday-Friday period. Some flurries or a few snow showers cannot
be ruled out.


Issued at 1154 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A few southerly gusts into the teens will be possible mainly early
this afternoon at KEVV and KOWB, but the pressure gradient will be
weakening and winds will back to southeast by 00Z, as our next
storm system approaches. It appears that the surface low may track
near to the south of KPAH and KOWB, so kept winds east or
northeast through the morning.

As stated above, the trend is for a later start to the precipitation
and associated visibilities and ceilings. The guidance is still
quite pessimistic once the rain sets in. IFR or LIFR conditions
can be expected through the morning hours Sunday. Certainly cannot
rule out some TS, but probabilities at any point are not great
enough to mention at this time.




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