000
FXUS63 KPAH 251055
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
455 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Energetic mid level s/wv moving SE from the Upper Midwest will
track SE with the H5 low center over ECNTRL MO around 18z and
WCNTRL KY by 00z. Sfc low will track will be in close proximity.
PoPs are a challenge, as a blend of ECS/MAV/MET blend computes
90+ PoPs most everywhere. However, HiRes output and current radar
mosaic does not show persistent solid coverage. This is often
difficult to depict graphically. Will go as close as we can to MOS,
and use ongoing / coverage type terminology, as that should more
accurately depict numerous, bands of showers moving across the
area. The slight southward shift in the track, also brings steep
mid level lapse rates and elevated instability (LI) values to near
zero, especially southern sections. Freezing level heights are
very low, so any activity that is convective in nature, could
result in a lightning strike or two, and maybe a little hail. Not
high confidence in either and certainly not an impact. Best
chances seem to be far southern sections of the area.

As the system pulls away in the evening, a little snow could mix
in with lingering rain shower activity. Not expecting any impacts
with this either. Chances drop off considerably by midnight, with
any lingering chance of mainly flurries far east sections of the
CWFA ending.

Monday through Tuesday night, a high amplitude pattern will yield
strong NW flow across the area, with several bands of moisture at
varying levels generally below 700 mb, resulting in variable cloud
cover, most prominent east of the Mississippi. Should be dry with
any precip chances staying to our east.

Temps will be a blend of MOS and base model output through the
duration, as they were in decent agreement and in line with
current numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Medium confidence in the extended until the weekend when the models
diverge and some flip flopping as well.

First and foremost the models continue to agree on a nw flow aloft
with several little clipper type systems setting up to move through
this week.

The models agree on a weak clipper type system moving through the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. This system has very limited
moisture and coverage will be spotty at best. In addition with the
warm temperatures would expect most if not all to fall as rain. High
pressure will set up for the end of the week with yet another
clipper type system poised to move through Saturday according to the
12z Sat ECMWF and more like Sunday night with 00z Sun GFS. The
models have been flip flopping with the timing a great deal with
this system over the last several days. Again both models indicate
lack of moisture so again do not expect much qpf. The GFS even has
it mainly a dry passage. So confidence decreases for the weekend.
The models also agree on the clipper during the week are not
bringing frigid air. In contrast the ECMWF is hinting the weekend
system could be bringing sub freezing high temps by late in the
weekend in contrast to the GFS. Will wait for 00z Sun ECMWF before
making final call on the weekend and possible tweaks to other
clippers as for timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 455 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Cigs will lower today, with numerous showers expected as an upper
level low, and surface reflection move SE across the area. SSW
winds up to 10 kts ahead of the low, will turn NW and gusty late
today into tonight. May take some time for the lower cigs to
arrive, given upstream conditions range from VFR to some MVFR.
Delayed that aspect.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$