Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 262009

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
309 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

After a break in the showers tonight, the next H50 short wave will
move east into the central Plains and Ohio Valley regions on
Monday. Associated surface low will eject from nw AR/sw MO into
southern Illinois and southwest Indiana as we head through the
day and into the evening. This will put most of the region within
the warm sector out ahead of advancing cold front. There is some
uncertainty as to the degree of instability that can become
established as much of the day could be littered with ongoing
precip. However, models continue to insist on MUCAPE values from
1000-1500 J/KG with surface dew points approaching 60 degrees and
steep mid level lapse rates. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values expected in
the 40-50 kt range and decent turning of the winds in the lowest 1
KM would be sufficient to support organized convection with
bowing segments and large hail the main threats. However, cannot
rule out a tornado or two if such an environment develops. The
entire forecast area has now been highlighted slight risk by SPC.
Locally heavy rainfall could also cause a few issues.

Cold front to swing through and end precip from west to east
Monday night, and a ridge of high pressure will then move in
Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will allow things to dry out, though
am not sure we will see much in the way of sunshine Tuesday. May
end up with a persistent layer of stratus trapped underneath the
frontal inversion most of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

To be issued shortly.


Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Low VFR cigs to likely scatter out as the sun sets this evening.
However, the next system will bring a return of MVFR cigs to the
region 12Z-18Z Monday. The cigs may be accompanied by sct showers.




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