Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261941
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
241 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

Isolated to scattered showers have started to develop across our
northern counties in the warm unstable air south of a warm front.
Thunderstorm complex in east central Missouri will continue to
move east southeast, reaching our northwest counties around 20z,
and sliding across our northern counties through 00z.

Models indicate the warm front will continue to meander near the
Interstate 64 corridor into tonight. Locations near the front
will be the better focus for showers and storms, though isolated
to scattered showers and storms will be possible area wide
through the overnight. By late tonight, the eastward progression
of a cold front will bring a surge of moisture/showers and
thunderstorms into our western counties. The approach and passage
of the cold front will keep widespread showers and storms across
our entire region through the day Wednesday and into Wednesday
evening. Showers and storms will taper off from west to east late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Models show the cold front east of
our area by midday Thursday, so just a few showers and storms may
linger in our far eastern counties mainly early in the day.

South winds across the region will keep us unseasonably warm
tonight into Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the lower to middle 60s, and just couple of degrees cooler for
Wednesday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

A weak upper level ridge will briefly build into our region late
Thursday into Thursday night. This will help give a brief break in
our stormy weather pattern. Temperatures will remain warm on
Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, but
winds will shift to the northwest by Thursday night. This will
drop lows back into the middle to upper 50s, which is actually
still above seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

The forecast for the long term period continues to indicate a rather
wet period. Average confidence in the first half of the long term
period, then below average in the second half due to greater model
differences.

A closed H5 low moving northeast out of the four corners region on
Friday will induce a surface low over the panhandle of Texas on a
frontal boundary extending from the low to the south of our area.
This will generate an overrunning rain event that is forecast to
push showers and thunderstorms into our far western counties by
Friday afternoon.

As the system slowly approaches, precipitation chances continue to
ramp up Friday into Friday night, with the highest chances area wide
being Saturday and Saturday night with the passage of the system. In
its wake, precipitation chances are expected to taper off from the
west but will linger from Sunday into Monday due to the presence of
upstream upper level energy and decent moisture.

Monday night into Tuesday the latest GFS and ECMWF deterministic
models are showing weak H5 ridging, little to no deep layer
moisture, and high pressure at the surface, therefore no QPF
forecast. However the Superblend and GEFS ensembles thinks there`s a
chance for showers, albeit small, in those periods so will keep
pops low.

Temperatures remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2016

MVFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period. VFR
conditions will continue for the next hour or two until a broad
area of showers and thunderstorms passes through the Quad State
area this afternoon and evening, causing sharp ceiling and
visibility changes and gusty winds. After convection and showers
move out this evening, MVFR cigs and south winds AOB 7 kts will
prevail until near sunrise. While some uncertainty exists
regarding tomorrow`s forecast, at this time it is likely that
another wave of convection will pass through in the morning hours.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BP2



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