Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 290440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





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