Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270836
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
236 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Ongoing warm/moist air advection resulting in overrunning rain
now, will be transitioning to more showery/convective element
activity as we move forward in time/the column destabilizes.

Models pick up on current tongue of 40s surface dew points
working into FA, and we should see 50s dew points incoming by this
afternoon. Mid to upper end 50s are at the southwest doorstep of
the FA by 00Z Tuesday, with next northward surge of moist tongue
drawing in 60s dew points tonight. That`s when we see elevated
instability parameters more supportive of thunder inclusion as
well, and this sets the stage for an increasingly active forecast
from late tonight thru Tuesday into Tuesday night/early Wed.

1st good round of thunder thus looks to be late tonight-early
Tuesday, as columnar instability deepens and we get 0-1KM MUCapes
pushing quad digits. After a brief pause, but still warm sectored
moist/unstable airmass storms possible, pm/evening hours should
begin to see another good round of organized convection with
deepening shear profile and near record pm temps in the 70s. 00Z
Models appear to be picking up on convective signal of strong to
potentially svr storms working across southern FA thru 06z,
perhaps just beyond. New SWODY2 expands ENH risk to cover more of
SWIL/SWKY as a result, with SLGT risk elsewhere.

Also think for 2-3 nights in a row now, the models are suggesting
basically an end to this event by Wed morning, but we`ll have to
see how the new SWODY3 works with how much thunder to play into
the morning hours Wed. At this writing, LMK/OHX/MEG/PAH seem to be
in good agreement on waning/diminishing convective (svr) threat
with fropa late Tue night-early Wed, transitioning to more of
heavy rain/ending pcpn scenario.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Low to middle level ridging will be in place through early next
Sunday. Despite some model outliers, this ridging has been fairly
consistent the past two days in the general medium range model
suite, so there is higher confidence on it occurrence.

The shortwave forecast over the intermountain region in the western
U.S. around 00z Monday (6pm CST March 6th) shows some
intensification as it moves toward the Mississippi Valley by 6 am
CST next Monday. With the increased baroclinicity shown by the 00z
Monday GFS, could see another active and progressive moving system
during the day next Monday. Will have to wait and see.

For now, kept chance to likely PoPs across the WFO PAH forecast area
next Sunday night and Monday. Added a mention of thunderstorms,
given the increasing instability ahead of the cold front late next
weekend into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Satellite/radar loops show ongoing warm/moist stream with
overrunning rains impacting all sites but conditions remain VFR.
Gridded time/height cross sections reveal a deepening moist tongue
which presumably will draw down CIGS to MVFR later this morning.
We should see overrunning rains become more convective/showery in
time, as the column further destabilizes in the warm sector.
Anticipate MVFR restrictions into the overnight, with the next
best slug of moisture coming late and likely offering IFR
restrictions to both CIGS and VSBYS in convection.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

In the short term (through early Wednesday), rain and
thunderstorms will keep the chance of wetting rain elevated across
the Heartland, mitigating any efficient burning of short term (10
hour) fuels across the area.

Relative humidities will dip down into the 25-30 percent range
late Wednesday over Southeast Missouri (particularly the Mark
Twain N. F. area). This trend will continue through Saturday for
this area. Further to the east, across the remainder of the
Heartland, 25 to 35 percent RH values will be common place for the
period from Thursday through Saturday. This should provide
sufficient drying for 10 hour and some 100 hour fuel loads.

Surface to 20 foot winds should remain light, but there will be
wind shifts from Thursday to Saturday, as high pressure move into
the area, then eastward over the weekend. One caveat, will be an
increase in wind gusts on Saturday, this could be problematic for
fire control.

Overall, conditions will be more favorable for implementing fire
plans late this week.

Rain chances next Sunday night into Monday should mitigate any
prescribed burns scheduled for that time period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Smith


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