Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162321
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
521 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00Z Taf Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Primary forecast challenge in the short term lies with a frontal
passage that will occur on Saturday, and an accompanied risk of
thunderstorms.

Tonight/Friday/and even Friday night will be mainly rain-free
across the region as high pressure slowly slides east toward the
se U.S. coast and low pressure forms out west over the
Plains/Midwest states. As such, surface winds will be gradually
turning more southeasterly...then southerly and increasing during
the period. Despite increasing mid/upper clouds Fri afternoon,
temps should make it up to near or above seasonal norms. With the
southerly flow continuing to increase Fri night and extensive
cloud cover, readings will actually continue a slow rise into
Friday morning. There may be a few warm advection showers late Fri
night out west of the MS River, but most locations will remain
dry until the aforementioned cold front approaches and moves
through on Saturday.

Wind profiles will be quite strong with this system. However, the
mid/upper trof looks to be coming through with a positive tilt,
and instabilities still look quite marginal with MUCAPES likely
to stay at or below 700 J/KG for the most part. Still, this time
of year in a high shear/kinematic environment, we do not need too
much CAPE to get isolated severe cells with damaging wind gusts on
a developing squall line. So we will need to keep an eye on this
possibility. Main point is that at this time, we are not
anticipating a big severe outbreak on Saturday with the frontal
passage. Gradient winds will also be quite strong ahead and behind
the front. Will need to monitor for the possibility of wind
advisories Sat/Sat evening regardless of any convection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

This forecast includes travel days up to and including Thanksgiving
Day.

Looking the deterministic medium range guidance from the
GFS/Canadian/ECMWF, as well as the ensemble means from each of these
models, it appears that the WFO PAH forecast area should remain dry
through the extended forecast period.  The spurious shower activity
advertised by the GFS yesterday for Wednesday/Wednesday night has
vanished from the blended guidance initialization today.

From Sunday through late Monday, the WFO PAH forecast area will
remain under the influence of broad ridging. The guidance has been
advertising a dry cold frontal passage for Tuesday for quite a
number of model runs.  The main zone of baroclinic activity activity
through the week still remains focused along the northern U.S. and
southern Canadian borders. The last few model runs have split some
of the energy (in the form of a shortwave) and dive it into Texas by
noon on Tuesday, before it closes off as a low over southern
Louisiana and Alabama. This feature may impact cloud cover for
southern sections of the WFO PAH forecast area in the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame.  Given the short residence time of deep
layer moisture would be minimal, not anticipating any chances for
rain during this time period.

Maximum temperatures should remain near normal most of the time,
with some locations dropping between 5 to 10 degrees below normal in
the day following the frontal passage on Saturday and Tuesday. Min
temperatures will likely be close to ten degrees below normal given
the dry atmosphere.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 518 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low clouds hanging tough in northeast (KEVV/KOWB), and that may
continue to be the case until winds can start to veer around, so
we`ll linger MVFR cigs, with potential same for vsbys, thru the
evening hours. Otherwise after that, we see southerlies develop in
earnest tmrw, increasing w/gusts in the pm, and some lowering mid
clouds thru the day, as our next wx maker approaches.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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