Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 251935
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST
NORTHEAST FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BISECTED OUR CWA
FROM NE-SW. A SHARP H5 TROUGH DIVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME THE APPROACH OF SAID LOW WILL CAUSE THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT TO BE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA PUTING US
IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS
A RESULT...WITH THE SMALL EXCEPTION OF A FEW DISCREET WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SNEAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...OUR REGION SHOULD REMAINMOSTLY DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RAMP UP QUICKLY AFTER 00Z (7PM
THIS EVENING) AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. AS THE LOW RACES ACROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROCKPORT INDIANA TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVING SLIGHTLY SHIFTED THE
MAIN AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF LATE TONIGHT COMBINED WITH THE SPEED AT
WHICH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA...NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
THE VERIFICATION OF OUR FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL KEEP THE FLAG FLYING
FOR THE TIME BEING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...PECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL QPF EXPECTED. AFTER AN
EXTREMELY BRIEF RESPITE...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING A
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAIINS COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE MAY GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. PER SOUNDINGS...CRITICAL THICKNESSES...ETC
PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT MAY FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
ONLY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...FROST IS A POSSIBLITY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
PERSONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD TAKE THE APPROPRIATE ACTION FOR
PROTECTION OF TENDER OUTDOOR PLANTS THAT MAY ALREADY BE BUDDING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SFC WILL KEEP US COOL FOR SATURDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME ENERGY DIVING SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WHATEVER MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK HITTING AND LEAVE THE AFTERNOON DRY.

AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
50S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST MODEL WITH THE CANADIAN
BEING THE WETTEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMMENCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. NO REAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR IN THE LATEST DATA UNTIL MAYBE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH A NW
FLOW PATTERN...THAT CAN AND WILL ULTIMATELY CHANGE. WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE EXTENDED BUT THERE IS NOT
A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL AT THIS POINT TO FEEL CONFIDENT ON RAISING
POPS ANY MORE.

DESPITE A RATHER COLD DAY ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON
SUNDAY AND THEN REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEATHER SYSTEM TONIGHT...CIGS/VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS ALONG WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE...AT LEAST AT KCGI/KPAH...TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KNOTS WILL SWING AROUND TO
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
LAST SIX HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088.

MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107.

IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...CW


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