Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 061958

258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

Mid level ridging will continue over the PAH forecast area
throughout most of the short term period while the nrn stream
remains active, with shrtwv energy moving through every couple of
days or so. This means dry and warmer-than-average weather can be
expected for most of the period, with variable cloudiness. Low
level warm advection should enable temps to reach as high as 86
degrees (near the AR border) Thu afternoon, and easily into the
80s elsewhere.

A more significant shrtwv is progged to swing a sfc cold front
through our region early Fri. There are some timing differences in
the 12Z runs of the models, notably the slow GEM (which depicts a
flatter trof) and the rather quick GFS. The general consensus is
that most pcpn may not develop from the nw until after 06z Fri.
Wrn KY will be the last to see rain showers. Stability indices
indicate lightning is possible, so a slight chance of tstms was
mentioned overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

An upper level short wave and a surface reflection of a cold front
will move through Friday. There still remains about 6 hours
difference in the timing of the front. The GFS wants to push the
front through the fastest with all precip out of the forecast area
by 00z Saturday. The NAM is almost as fast. The ECMWF, Canadian and
SREF are the slowest with precip lingering after 00z Saturday. There
remains enough instability to warrant a mention of isolated thunder
with this system. High pressure then builds in and keeps us dry into
the first part of next week.

Much cooler and drier air settles over the region for the weekend.
High pressure moves off to the east by late Sunday and southerly
winds and a quick warm up return for next week. Highs will go from
around 70 on Saturday back into the lower 80s by Tuesday.


Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide VFR conditions
for all sites through the period, with clouds generally AOA 4500 ft.
Winds will generally be out of the north AOB 10 knots through the 24
hr TAF period.




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