Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 162033
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Near term warming has commenced, with all obs in the 50s and now
60s being flirted with in the south. Time/Heights show a dry
column below 400 MB until the early weekend system. Warm air
advection will kick in more earnest tmrw, and with a warmer start
in the upper end 30s, we should see the mercury rise well thru the
60s tmrw, providing an early spring like day. Fire wx parameters
will be marginal, with winds in the teens (gusts) and rh`s mins in
the 30s percentile.

For Fri night-Saturday, we see Low pressure lifting across the Red
River Valley and its associated moisture advecting northward/up
the lower Ms valley. The predominant ridge line is ushered east
across the Tn valley Fri night as the Low drifts into Arkansas.
Light overrunning showers, or chance thereof, will be possible
mainly Saturday, as the Low drifts into/across west Tn. Pops then
wind down/diminish in our farthest southeast Sat evening as the
Low is pushed toward the Carolinas by an incoming ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Surface high pressure will be centered to our southeast/east on
Sunday, and sunny skies and south winds will help high temperatures
reach around 70 degrees.  The southerly flow will continue into the
work week, and this will keep temperatures well above normal, with
highs around 70 degrees again expected on Monday.

Clouds will be on the increase late Monday into Tuesday with the
approach of our next weather system.  Models are showing some
agreement with the cold frontal timing as it moves into/across our
region, but are still very different in just how much precipitation
will produce be produced.  The Canadian, which used to be very wet,
now shows us getting no precipitation, the ECMWF has very light QPF
mainly late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and GFS has fairly
significant QPF Tuesday night through Wednesday.  Confidence has
increased a little due to models showing some agreement in frontal
timing, but the back and forth on QPF amounts results in preferring
to keep precipitation possibilities in the chance category or lower.
Based on the current forecast frontal position, went with low chance
pops for showers in our southwest counties Tuesday morning, with
increasing chances spreading east Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night.  Shower chances will decrease from west to east Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening.  Dry conditions are expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday.

Temperatures will drop off a couple of degrees Tuesday and Wednesday
with the expected additional clouds, but readings will remain well
above normal.  There is really no significant difference in the air
mass behind the mid week cold front, so unseasonably warm conditions
will continue through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Time/height cross sections show only high level moisture possible
thru the effective valid time. Anticipate southerlies predominant
thru the package, with some gusts into/thru the teens peaked
diurnally today and tmrw.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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