Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 071941
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS PAH FA IS HELPING FOCUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG IT. HIGH PW`S AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS ADDING
TO PREDECESSOR RAINS TO HEIGHTEN FLOOD CONCERNS...COLLABORATED FOR
FFA ACROSS ENTIRE FA THRU 00Z THU.

ANTICIPATE MORE OR LESS CONTINUAL PULSING OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY
AND REPEAT TRAINING OVER SAME AREAS THRU TONITE INTO TMRW...AS
PIECES OF ENERGY RUN ALONG IT WITH PARALLEL FLOW ATOP IT. THIS
WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...TAPERING CHANCES AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT AND
STARTS TO SQUEEZE OUT/DISINTEGRATE SAID BOUNDARY WITH TIME.
CLOUDS/CONVECTION TO HOLD DIURNAL RANGES DOWN UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP THE REGION IN
A FAIRLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND.  A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER OVER OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY FOR FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FRIDAY, AND INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  DEW POINTS WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY, AND THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS MOISTURE WILL HELP AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES REACH THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE LOW SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE CANADIAN SEEMS
TO KEEP THIS FEATURE FARTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THOUGH THE GFS ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, OVERALL THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SEEM
A REASONABLE SOLUTION TO FOLLOW.  A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN AREAL CONVECTION WILL IMPACT TERMINALS THRU
THE EVENING WITH REGARD TO BOTH CIGS/VSBYS. OVERNIGHT FOG MAY
LIMIT PREVALING VSBYS AND IFR RESTRICTIONS MAY APPLY LATE TONITE-
EARLY TMRW IN FOG/LOW CLOUD AND/OR PCPN. DAYTIME IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE GRADUAL WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING AND VSBYS SLOW TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THRU THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


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