Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KPAH 310735

235 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

An upper level wave lifting across the Commonwealth today will
drag remaining showers/storms eastward and eventually out of our
area, albeit for a short-lived while.

Tonight-Labor Day now look essentially dry, as the next developing
weather system takes shape and approaches by Tuesday. Pops reenter
the forecast and spike to likely category Tuesday as the system
sweeps into the Quad State.

Temps remain in the 80s/near 90 for highs, with muggy lows in the
lower 70s holding true thru the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The
00Z/12Z ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon,
as the GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS
though to just shy of the likely category with the best chances in
MO/IL. Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we
have enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.


Issued at 228 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will continue thru the early part of
the TAF forecast period as an upper level wave lifts
showers/storms across and eventually to the east of the terminals
today. The latter half of the period should see clearing skies,
but that could lead to another night of fog development with
restricted vsbys by tmrw morning, esp where the better rains fall.



$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.