Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 310445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1145 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Updated the aviation forecast discussion for 06Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Weak mid level ridging and high pressure at the surface will keep
much of the area dry through Tuesday. Impulses of energy over the
Plains will provide the impetus for shower and thunderstorm
development to our west, and some of this activity may make it
into portions of southeast Missouri tonight and Tuesday.

Energy currently over the Northwestern U.S. will develop into an
upper level low as it shifts east into the northern Plains through
mid week. As the trough south of this low approaches, a moistening
southwesterly flow will set up across the forecast area. As a
result, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on the
increase from west to east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Rain
chances should peak Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front
works its way into the area.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the near term. Expect
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s,
which mirrors a model consensus blend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast confidence is rather high in the synoptic trends through
the extended portion of this forecast, but the details of sensible
weather, mainly PoPs, is still not so clear.

The four state region will start the period on the southern fringe
of zonal flow aloft that extends across the entire country.
Meanwhile a cutoff upper low is expected to be nearly stationary
over west Texas with an upper high to its west over the desert
southwest. The upper high is expected to increase in amplitude
through period, and eventually this will lead to more significant
troughing over the eastern half of the country. At the surface, weak
surface high pressure will be the rule, but a weak trough/front may
accompany a stronger upper-level impulse that will help carve out
the eastern trough over the weekend.

The primary issue for our region is the interaction between the west
Texas low as it moves slowly east, and northern stream energy. Given
the range of solutions from the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS, it will be
difficult to find a dry period from Thursday through the end of the
period. We will have generally small chance PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms over all or a portion of the area each period. Chances
will be greatest over west Kentucky late this week, and then
throughout the area over the weekend.

The flow aloft will be rather weak and surface high pressure should
certainly hold down surface-based instability late in the work week,
so organized strong to severe storms do not look likely Thursday or
Friday. Depending on how strong the upper-level impulse is this
weekend, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out.

High temperatures will generally be a bit below normal throughout
the period, and should be trending down by Monday. Lows will be near
normal through the period.


Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Batch of
mid level clouds to our west will slowly migrate eastward and
reach KCGI/KPAH later tonight or Tuesday morning. Mid cloud layer
will likely be more scattered further east. Calm winds will become
southeast around 5 kts or below Tuesday afternoon. Could see a
few fair weather cumulus around as well. Any thunderstorm activity
that forms is expected to remain west of the TAF sites. However,
if any activity did form, it would mainly impact KCGI.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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