000
FXUS63 KPAH 190457
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NICE LINE OF
SUMMER-TIME THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PURCHASE AREA
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOULD CONTINUE TO JUST BE A BRIEF GUST OF WIND AND SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A LIGHTNING THREAT.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PASSED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE WATCH
AREA...AND THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION LEFT IN OUR VICINITY.
THEREFORE OUR PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY.

LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI...WITH ANOTHER VERY WEAK BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
NEAR THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OVER IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD RESIDE NORTH OF THE
REGION. LOCALLY...OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WILL SEE
THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO POSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LARGE HAIL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
UPDRAFTS...AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY REMNANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID 80S. A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

HOT AND A BIT MORE HUMID DAYS ARE EXPECTED AS A 500 MB HIGH SITS
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL BOUNDARIES. THE H50 RIDGE MAY FLATTEN JUST A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT STORM CHC AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AFTERNOON 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO HOVER AROUND OR JUST BELOW
20 C...DAILY HIGHS IN THE 90 TO 93 RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
HALF OF THE 60S WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ACTUAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDER AND ALL OF ITS IMPACTS SHOULD BE OUT OF KPAH BY 06Z...SO
WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. IF SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS GO CALM ENOUGH...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR FOG AT KPAH NEAR
SUNRISE. MENTIONED JUST MVFR LEVELS FOR NOW...BUT DENSE FOG WILL
BE A CONCERN IN ALL AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
THIS EVENING.

LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES ALOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 4-6KFT LAYER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A NOTICEABLE TREND TOWARD
POTENTIAL CEILINGS IN THIS LAYER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME TENDENCY
FOR A NORTHERLY WIND AT KEVV AND KOWB. A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DRS