445
FXUS63 KPAH 140555
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may
  pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
  accompany all storms.

- The work week will start out with seasonable heat and
  humidity, but heat indices will climb into the triple digits
  and possibly exceed advisory threshold throughout the region
  Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An upper level trough has essentially stalled over northwestern
MO/IL leading to a little bit of sustained large scale ascent
over the area tonight. This is working with our soupy airmass to
keep showers and a few thunderstorms going in two clusters, one
north of Cape Girardeau and south of Carbondale, and the other
in northeastern Arkansas. Buoyancy is very diurnally limited so
severe weather risk appears negligible but the slow storm
motion, particularly in Cape County and vicinity is coupling
with 2.1" PWATs to lead to a respectable flash flood threat for
the next few hours.

The upper pattern remains very similar with the areas of
acceleration/deceleration becoming less obvious than they are
currently through the next 72 hours. Dewpoints stay in the mid
70s through the week so isolated to scattered afternoon showers
and thunderstorms should continue to be expected. A small severe
risk for afternoon downbursts and a flash flood threat will
exist with this activity although its more scattered nature may
limit impacts.

By Thursday into Friday a stronger more zonal jet pattern is
indicated by GFS/ECMWF guidance with a little stronger shortwave
on Thursday. This feature though seems to be trending slightly
further north. 500mb heights increase to around 596dm with
dewpoints in the upper 70s. In general we still look fairly
likely to have afternoon showers and storms but with heights and
dewpoints like that it won`t take much to be into heat advisory
criteria by Thursday into Saturday, especially with the general
trend of the shortwave trough being a bit further north and
lesser precip/cloud coverage. The pattern basically holds shape
through the end of the current forecast period with afternoon
showers and storms and oppressive humidity.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Minimal changes from the last TAF issuance. Still seeing SHRA
and at times embedded TS north of CGI. Expecting most of this
activity to remain away from the terminals although this
issuance does carry VCSH at EVV and OWB. Guidance remains
consistent that low stratus will spread south into the northern
and eastern terminals this morning with LIFR conditions possible
at MVN. Ceilings may be slow to improve to VFR until late
morning or early afternoon. PROB30 remains for all sites Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...AD