Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 090722

222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Radar showed showers/isolated thunder to our west approaching.
Front still forecast to move through early today with trailing
mid level energy supporting lift for some shower and possible
thunder activity. Bumped up PoPs a bit, given rather high MOS
numbers. This despite relatively low QPF given marginal overall
moisture. Chances will decrease from NW to SE this afternoon,
ending by end of the day around the KHOP area. High pressure
follows with slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather Saturday
through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Medium confidence in the extended.

Believe the the extended init along with most models persist in
advertising abundant moisture where it will not exist. This is
evident via current regional or national radar loop which detected
scattered showers and the lightning detection chart indicated
isolated strike or two. This is a great deal less coverage than the
models have been advertising for well over a week now. I believe
this will also come to fruition with Mondays and Fridays cold front
passage. For the aforementioned reasons have trimmed pops back about
five percent from the extended init. That combined with very limited
gulf moisture supply would equate to no mention of rain in the
extended at this time. I cant rule out there may be a sprinkle
around the area Monday but measurable rain is very much in question.

Highs and lows will be very close to normal throughout the extended
with highs in the 70s and lows near or just below 50.


Issued at 545 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

A cold front will approach and make passage late tonight-early
tmrw. Cigs will develop ahead/along and linger behind front.
Mostly mid and high clouds are expected, but time-height cross
sections suggest a lower vfr deck is possible, so we included it
in the post frontal terminal conditions for tmrw. Winds will shift
to the north with fropa and average around 10 kts. Light showers
may accompany the front`s passage but shouldn`t offer much
restriction to vsbys.



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