Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 302004
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
304 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The trajectory of the storms clusters in Southeast Illinois have
required an areal expansion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 103 into
Southwest Indiana. May need to consider adding a few more counties
in Southwest Indiana. Main concern would be with hail reaching at
or above severe criteria along the nose of the narrow plume of
deeper moisture currently moving through the Pennyrile of West
Kentucky. In addition, winds should reach severe criteria with
the storms moving from Southeast Illinois and Northwest Kentucky
during the next 1-3 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Initial convective activity panning out with sub-severe criteria
hail and wind gusts with more intense updrafts along the line of
convection moving east of the Mississippi River at this time.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, wind fields may be more
conducive for better downdrafts over Southern Illinois and as far
east as the counties surrounding the Land Between the Lakes. The
potential for a few storms approaching severe criteria winds may
be possible through at least 5 pm CDT. Severe criteria hail is a
little more elusive, but could be possible for storms that
approach the I-64 corridor in Southern Illinois this afternoon.

Utilized the 12km NAM-WRF/CMCnh as base templates for dry slot and
lingering showers around the upper low. Given the cold core low
passage into the area (mainly Southeast IL, Southwest IN, and
Northwest KY) near daybreak on Friday, kept a mention of showers
within the area. I would not be surprised if there was an isolated
hail report (less than one quarter inch) with the passage of the
upper low in the vicinity early Friday morning.

Otherwise, from the remainder of Friday through early Sunday,
shortwave ridging show halt any rain chances over the WFO PAH
CWA. Given the cold air advection behind the low, temperatures
will remain +/- 3 degrees from normal temperatures this time of
year.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 pm CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast confidence is moderate through the extended forecast.

We will have two storm systems impacting the region. The first storm
system will pass eastward to our south, but be close enough that we
will see plenty of showers and some thunderstorms in the associated
deformation zone. At this time severe weather seems unlikely with
this storm system. There may be some light shower activity as early
as Sunday morning, but the best coverage will be in Sunday night and
Monday. Some light showers may even linger into Tuesday in the east.

The second storm system will be quick on the heels of the first, and
will be passing east southeast to our north Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Wind fields will be more supportive of organized severe
storms, but the storm track may limit low-level moisture return.
Thunder will be focused along and ahead of the cold front expected
to move through the region early Wednesday. This storm system will
represent an overall pattern shift, as it carves out a larger-scale
trough just to our east through the end of the week. Behind the
front, scattered showers will be possible with the upper-level storm
system into Thursday.

Temperatures will remain quite mild through Wednesday, but will
trend cooler down toward normal levels behind the front for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A band of scattered thunderstorms will progress east northeast
through the area, potentially impacting all TAF sites by 00Z. As
the upper low moves over the region tonight, some lighter showers
will be possible, but they should have little impact. A large area
of MVFR ceilings should overspread the area late tonight into
Friday morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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