000
FXUS63 KPAH 290449 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term portion of the forecast remains benign, but there
are subtle influences at play to note. For instance, a ribbon of
higher moisture in the 1000-850 mb layer was noted just to our
east, resulting in thicker cloud cover from about Louisville metro
eastward, as some energy rotates down thru the primary long wave
trof. The net result for us is diurnally enhanced cu fields over
our FA. Surface Td`s were still running in the lower 60s at this
writing, but upper 50s were starting to mix down in some locales.

This drier surface air will continue to usher in this
evening/overnight, as High pressure ridges at the surface to our
west. This should allow lows to drop to near or at least flirt
with records in the 50s tonight.

Tmrw looks similar to today as surface High pressure anchors
overhead/across the TN river valley. Another pleasantly
cooler/drier day will be on tap.

The High shifts east by Wednesday, and while we continue a dry and
altogether pleasant forecast, we do see dew points creep upward a
few degrees, as the High shifts predominant low layer flow from
Nlys to easterlys or perhaps southeasterlys. And while overall
columnar moisture remains sparce, mid level lapse rates do
approach 6C by Wed pm. This could potentially result in an
isolated shower/storm developing in the pm heat, but said Pops
appear too low to warrant mention attm.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Medium confidence in the extended possibly even less confidence in
precip chance and timing.

Models are trying to keep a light northerly flow that does drift to
the east in time. However the flow is so light with surface high
pressure dominating the extended. The models continue to agree on an
upper level trough persisting over the eastern half of the country.
The axis of this upper level feature should pivot through the fa
Thursday. This combined with aftn max heating could trigger a storm
or two but lack of moisture is a major concern. Dewpoints around or
in the 60s are usually adequate for storms but very dry aloft.
Another mitigating factor is with flow aloft fairly unidirectional
with surface i.e. mainly north or east...would not expect much in
the way of moisture advection. Otherwise as head through the weekend
and into next week the trough will slowly shift eastward toward the
east coast...decreasing rain chances.

The models continue to agree on a unseasonably cool week with some
hints of warm up next week as temperature slowly warm through
the lower and middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Surface high pressure overspreading the area will keep the TAF
sites dry with relatively light winds (AOB 10 knots) through the
period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at KCGI between
10-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH