000
FXUS63 KPAH 312119
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

12z Models continue the ongoing trend for warmer/wetter and even
flirt with some instability, elevated, with 30 K`s into srn ptns
FA. Will thus keep it all liquid, and massage qpf`s around the 3/4
inch vicinity. Upped all Pops to 100 for the max/peak Pop time
period (Sunday).

The cold air is really taking awhile to slam down the back side,
around the Low, and the moisture is all but departed. We`ll carry
a changeover flurry chance though, just due to the strength of the
cold air/high pressure that works into the FA in its wake.

As a result, we still expect Monday highs around freezing, or just
under, and Mon nite lows down around 20/low 20s.. then a rebound
closer to seasonal norms Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

Westerly low level flow, and quasizonal flow aloft, will be in place
in the beginning of the extended period. A sfc cold front is
progged by the med range models to sweep into the PAH forecast
area sometime Wed afternoon. Clouds are expected to be the only
feature associated with the actual sfc boundary, other than a
noticeable sfc wind shift to the north.

However, during the Wed night/Thu time window, in the cold arctic
air behind the front, the GFS/GEM models continue to show a mid
level shrtwv trof of a sharper nature than the ECMWF approaching the
region, and therefore the GFS, especially, indicates the possibility
of widespread overrunning type pcpn, which the atmospheric profile
indicates will be mostly snow, with perhaps around an inch possible
in some areas. The low level flow in the GFS/GEM solutions appears
to have more of a srly component than the ECMWF, perhaps allowing
more return flow in the models to aid in moisture convergence in the
lower and mid levels. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continued to show a
mostly dry forecast. Due to the model uncertainty, the
initialization blend provided limited chances of pcpn for this time
period, and this is what we went with.

Models appear to indicated that dry nwrly flow aloft will continue
through Day 7. Thu/Thu night will be the coldest period, with highs
in the upper 20s to upper 30s, and lows in the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 256 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VFR cigs will gradually lower thru the course of the night, and by
the time pcpn sets in late tonight-early tmrw, anticipate MVFR
cigs to take hold. Occasional restrictions to MVFR vsbys will
accompany the body of the pcpn as we head thru the planning period
hours, during which times, southerlys will increase/start to
become gusty.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$