Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 311542
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1042 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Updated Aviation section for 18Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Cold Canadian high pressure will move slowly east into the region
today and tonight, and will remain in control of the weather
through the upcoming weekend. Blustery north winds will increase
to 15 to 20 MPH by afternoon with gusts up near 30 MPH. Winds will
stay up into the evening hours as temperatures fall quickly through
the 40s and into the 30s. Will feel closer to 30 when winds are
factored in this evening. Overnight lows will likely fall below
freezing by dawn Saturday, but the coldest night will likely come
Saturday night as the high pressure system moves overhead. In
fact, a hard freeze will be probable in many locations. Thus, will
continue ongoing freeze warning for both nights.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

South winds will increase across the region on Monday ahead of an
approaching cold front.  Temperatures will continue to moderate back
up to near normal readings for Monday and Monday night.  ECMWF
brings the cold front across the PAH forecast area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, while GFS is about 6 hours slower. GEM solution is
now really slowing the front down and tries to hang it up over our
area, so focus of forecast will remain on an ECMWF/GFS blend.
ECMWF brings some light precip into west/northwest portions of the
fa late Monday night, while GFS holds off until Tuesday morning, but
model consistency leans toward keeping some small pops in before 12z
Tuesday. Bulk of precip will be late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
and went likely pops for our west/northwest counties on Tuesday, all
but our far southeast counties Tuesday night, then across our
southeast counties Wednesday.  Although timing is still a little bit
in questions, do feel pretty confident all area will receive
measurable rainfall within that time frame. Behind the front, dry
conditions will return as a weak upper level ridge moves over the
area.  Near to a little below normal temperatures can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Visible imagery time lapse shows clearing working in from the
west, arriving at terminals in 18-21Z time frame. However, it also
shows cyclonic flow clouds in the low VFR-MVFR range that are
poised to rotate southeastward and impact our northeast terminals
(KEVV/KOWB) shortly thereafter. In addition, radar shows light
shower activity ahead of the clearing, impacting primarily the
northeastern terminals. Will monitor these trends accordingly thru
press time, and make needed adjustment. Clouds will linger longer
than previously forecast at least in the northeast (KEVV/KOWB),
due to the influence of the Low. Winds/gusts will stay up longer
there as well. Improvement is noted during the planning period,
though the gradient wont altogether loosen until beyond the valid
forecast time this issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT tonight to 8 AM CST Sunday FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$







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