000
FXUS63 KPAH 040547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. CORRECTED LONG TERM DISCUSSION TEXT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL NOT GO INTO
TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD BEGIN CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE OHIO RIVER THE CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY THE REASON FOR THIS UNWELCOMED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SHARP SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL INDUCE A WAVE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
WILL DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK OVER SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

THE BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME DECENT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR BEYOND MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
THURSDAY FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA. SEE PRODUCT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, SO THE MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.  MODELS KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING SYSTEMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH, SO DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS A NEW FRIGID AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...FLYING
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL...WITH INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO AROUND 20 KTS
AS PCPN TRANSITIONS FROM RA TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA...THEN
SLEET...THEN SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST MODERATE SNOWFALL
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED. THOUGH SOME DATA SUGGESTS IFR
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WE WENT WITH
SLOWLY RISING CIGS TO MVFR BY WED EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MOZ112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR KYZ001>022.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST
AVIATION...DB